[NFL] Week 4 TNF Slate Analysis: Cowboys vs. Giants
A quick look at the week four Thursday Night Football Showdown, and the projected optimal lineup is revealed!
Tracker Update
On Monday, I opened this article with this:
If it seems too good to be true in this world of fantasy sports, it usually is.
And that proved prescient. The double-ups were dupe city. So many people had the same lineups, so we “cashed,” but for less than our buy-in. So it was a losing Monday Night. That drops us down from a 66% ROI to a 47% ROI.
Game Environment
Tonight, we get the Cowboys visiting the Giants. The over/under is 45.5, and the Cowboys are a 5.5-point favorite.
This is a division game, and both teams are at 1-2 after three games. There is a ton on the line here.
The Cowboys have a -1% PROE, which is 10th-highest in the league. The Giants are at -5%, in the bottom half of the league. Both teams have played pretty fast so far and are both in the top-ten in the league in pace.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott ($10,400) is the good QB here, and Daniel Jones ($9,400) is the bad one. Neither guy is overly reliable for fantasy, but Prescott did show us that passing ceiling last week with 379 yards and two touchdowns. Jones has been resurrected by Malik Nabers, who we’ll get to, and he’s gone above 18 fantasy points in the last two weeks. Jones also has run for 67 yards, so he adds a couple of points per week with his legs. I think we’re heading towards playing both QBs again.
Running Backs
The Cowboys do not run a ton, and they have split the carries between Rico Dowdle ($6,400) and Ezekiel Elliott ($6,200). They have not had many red zone trips, but Zeek has been the guy around the goal line early on. He’s the preferred play for that reason, but I don’t want either guy.
On the Giants side, Devin Singletary ($8,200) has played a big role. He has 42 carries and ten targets. No other running back has more than eight. Singletary has scored both rushing touchdowns so far, so he can be considered a workhorse back. He’s a strong play.
Pass Catchers
We have two alpha receivers in this game: CeeDee Lamb ($11,800) and Malik Nabers ($10,800). They are the two most expensive players on the slate. There are a lot of good plays in this game.
Nabers has 37 targets and a sick 23-271-3 line through three games to lead the league in fantasy points scored at the position. Lamb hasn’t had the huge game yet, but still a strong 13-218-1 on 25 targets.
The secondary option for the Giants is Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,800). He has 24 targets and a 15-123-1 line on a 4.3 ADoT. He’s the short yardage guy, and that gives him a pretty great floor for the price. He’s a potential building-block play.
Jake Ferguson ($7,000) should be considered the #2 option in Dallas. He is tied for second on the team in targets with Jalen Tolbert ($5,800) at 16, and he’s done in that in just two games.
Kickers
Brandon Aubrey ($5,000) has like a hundred million fantasy points this year, but that’s meaningless - kicker points are almost entirely random. The price tag is high for a kicker. Greg Joseph ($4,400) is the other guy here. We still prefer the kicker whose team has the higher total, but both guys are in play for the cash build.
On to the projections and the lineup!