2025 Team Previews - Cincinnati Reds
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the Cincinnati Reds ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
I went to a Reds game with my wife last year, so that makes me even more of an expert on the team than I already was.
I ponied up for some home plate seats, and it turned out that what I had bought were those handicap-accessible seats that are just fold-out chairs on the platform between the lowest section and the one above it. They were awesome seats. In the third inning or so, we got up to go get some food, and when we came back, this very large guy was sitting in one of our seats talking to the people next to our seats. I mean, he was a very big man and had a cane and a breathing tube going on.
So, I had a decision to make. I wanted the seats back. I paid like $250 for the seats, but I also didn’t want to be the 150-pound guy prancing down the stairs telling the handicapped guy to go kick rocks. The latter part won out and I left him alone. And it wasn’t out of charity. Don’t give me credit here, I just didn’t want people to see me do it - because I thought it would make me look bad.
What we did was skip down even closer to the field and found two empty seats. My wife didn’t like that; she felt like she was doing something wrong, which I guess we were! Two wrongs don’t make a right and all. But it didn’t last long before the rightful renters of those seats showed up, so we ended up just taking a long walk around the stadium. I hoped the guy would be gone when we got back a couple of innings later, but no. At that point, I just told an usher what happened, and he ended up finding us two vacant seats that were very close to the plate, and we got to watch the last few innings.
The game sucked. It was 8-0 Reds by the fifth inning. It was Nick Martinez’s best work of the season as he just cruised through the Pirates’ bad lineup. Not quite the best experience for the one night away we’ve had from the kids in six years, but hey - life could be a whole lot worse.
Was there any point in me telling that story at all? No, I guess not. But I’ve typed it all, and I’m not going back!
I had $5 on the Reds to win the World Series last year. I placed that in the spring because I thought they had a ton of upside on the roster. The upside didn’t hit last year. Injuries hurt them, and some of the young talent just did not take the steps forward we thought they were capable of.
But they come into 2025 with an even better roster. Some big names are returning from injury, and they’ve been looking to add on. They hired Terry Francona to be their manager. That’s a big name. I’ll spare you my rantings about how I don’t think the manager matters. The Reds must disagree with that. It’s not like a manager costs all that much either relative to players, so whatever, I’m not going to criticize anybody for hiring a certain manager.
If I were an overly stingy MLB owner, I’d be looking for two things in a manager.
A very large, in-shape, tough-minded man
Someone who would take the job for like $250,000
The one thing you can’t have is the players not respecting the manager. You’ve gotta have order in the clubhouse; there’s no doubt about that.
I think I have the mental ability to manage a baseball team as far as making in-game decisions (a computer model probably tells you what to do at this point anyway!), but could I earn and maintain the respect of 26 men who could all pick me up and throw me 75 yards? I doubt it!
So yeah, I’d just be looking for a drill sergeant who knows enough baseball to get those in-game decisions right, and preferably someone who wouldn’t be out there getting DUIs after the game. I’m pretty easy to please.
Roster
McLain and CES will return after missing most (CES) or all (McLain) of last season. They have not added anybody else this offseason, but that could happen - we have a ways to go. It’s a decent lineup. The bigger issue is the rotation:
But hey, there are plenty of rotations worse than that. There’s not a single true “gas can” there. All of those guys can hang in the Majors, I think. They have an ace with Greene and a lot of upside with Lodolo. And they also have some young arms coming up through the minors that we’ll talk about.
Let’s have at it!
Hitters
Elly De La Cruz
Age: 23
Pos: SS
Elly has played 1.5 seasons in the Majors and has stolen 102 bases. That’s the most of the last two seasons by a good margin.
2023-2024 MLB Steals Leaders
Elly De La Cruz 102
Ronald Acuna Jr. 89
Corbin Carroll 89
Bobby Witt Jr. 80
Shohei Ohtani / C.J. Abrams 78
He was insanely aggressive in his rookie year with a 46% stolen base attempt rate. I did not think that could possibly go up, so I predicted/projected a much more modest steals total. That was way wrong. He put up a 51% attempt rate last season. Only Jose Caballero bested that (59%).
That, all by itself, is enough to get Elly into the first ten rounds of fantasy drafts. But there’s a lot more to talk about with the big man! Let’s get into the 2024 numbers:
694 PA, .259/.336/.471, 25 HR, 105 R, 76 RBI, 67 SB
He’s an elite fantasy player, and he’ll be going often in the top five this year. Your first handful by ADP right now:
Ohtani
Witt Jr.
Judge
Elly
J Ram
Gunnar
That’s the clear top six, although it will come in different orders.
More numbers on Elly’s 2024:
31% K%, 9.7% BB%, 12.7% Brl%, 67% Cont%, 47% GB%
At 6’5’’, it’s always going to be tough for Elly to avoid a high strikeout rate. We have seen Aaron Judge improve from 30% down to the mid-twenties over the years, so it’s not impossible to think Elly could come down toward 25%, but I wouldn’t expect it any time soon. He has also had trouble lifting the ball in his young career, and those two things are what have really kept him away from the insane 35-homer, 60-steal season that many people think he’s capable of.
He did make improvements in 2024, and maybe that’s the most important thing to note.
K%: 33.7% → 31.3%
BB%: 8.2% → 9.9%
Brl%: 8.5% → 12.7%
GB%: 55% → 47%
If he can make another step forward (say, 28% K%, 10% BB%, 14% Brl%, 45% GB%), he’ll be a true MVP threat.
The exit velocity is not a problem, as you probably know.
He reached 115mph last year, something only 15 hitters were able to do last season.
The skills are nearly unmatched, the Statcast page is lit up like a Christmas tree (a Christmas tree where you only use red lights, I guess), and the sky is the limit. He’s an easy first-round pick. I would personally say he’s a little more risky than the other five names I listed above because of the GB% and K%. He could have a year with a pretty bad batting average if BABIP stuff doesn’t go his way (his career xBA is just .245). But I’m being picky here. I don’t see any way the guy doesn’t clear 20 homers and 40 steals.
Rank
Projection
673 PA, 102 R, 30 HR, 87 RBI, 49 SB, .251/.333/.472, $17.76 roto value
Spencer Steer
Age: 27
Pos: 1B/OF
I have not been able to figure Spencer Steer out in the past few years. The good news is, though, that I haven’t drafted him either. His 2024 season was not very good:
656 PA, .226/.320/.402, , 21% K%, 11% BB%, 20 HR, 74 R, 92 RBI, 25 SB
His career slash line is now at .246/.336/.425, so I’d imagine his slash line improves from what we see in 2025.
More numbers:
Brl%: 6.4%
xBA: .233
xwOBA: .317
EV 90: 103.7
GB%: 38%
He doesn’t hit the ball very hard, but he does get it into the air, and he pulls a good number of his fly balls, and that’s how he’s gotten to a decent homer output in his career so far. I don’t believe there is any significant chance of a power breakout season, but he’s got 20+ in two straight seasons. He also started running more last season, with an 18% attempt rate and those 25 steals.
I view Steer as “fine.” He’ll be 27 next season, so he’s in his prime years, and he should be an everyday player. He’s pretty similar to Bryan Reynolds. The low-upside but safe guy to just take if you’re drafting conservatively.
Rank
Projection
572 PA, 69 R, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 16 SB, .245/.334/.4210, $6.92 roto value
Tyler Stephenson
Age: 28
Pos: C
The Reds’ primary backstop finished eighth at the catcher position on my player rater. His line:
69 R, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 1 SB, .253/.441/.775
He managed the strikeouts (23%) and hit homers at a better-than-average rate. He reached career bests in the following:
xwOBA: .323
HR: 19
Brl%: 9.1%
EV 90: 103.9
K%: 23%
Stephenson has always been a solid contact hitter, but he lowered the K% and raised the power indicators last year, it was a very good season for the guy.
He settles into a full-time role now and should be near the middle of this lineup. There’s also a history of him playing first base, so he could find his way into a few other starts over there if emergencies happen.
I still wouldn’t call him a power-hitting catcher. The 90th percentile EV is under 104.5, which isn’t great. He is helped by the launch angle profile and the home ballpark. I think the downside is 12-15 homers, but if he plays 130 games, most often, he’d reach 15-20.
I view Stephenson as a safe catcher who will help your fantasy team out offensively. You can do a lot worse.
Rank
I will take Shea Langeliers over him, but it’s pretty close. So that’s where he’s going.
Projection
506 PA, 60 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 2 SB, .254/.334/.426, $8.19 roto value
TJ Friedl
Age: 29
Pos: OF
Friedl spent quite a bit of time on the IL last season. He got a late start to the season and then had thumb and hamstring issues after he returned. The final result was:
341 PA, .223/.308/.378, .686 OPS, 15% K%, 7.6% BB%, 13 HR, 9 SB
That’s not a good season, but the home runs and steal pace were still solid - which is the main reason to draft Friedl.
Friedl is a very interesting hitter. He has very little raw power:
3.2% Brl%, 101.3 90th-percentile EV, 88.1 average EV
But he is excellent at pulling his fly balls and taking advantage of Great American Smallpark. Here is the spray chart of his hard-hit fly balls last year:
He pulled 36% of his fly balls, well above the league average of 25%. That helps him get enough balls out of the ballyard to not kill your fantasy team in that category.
HR/Brl Leaders, 2023-2024 (20 barrel minimum)
TJ Friedl 91%
Nolan Arenado 74%
Nick Senzel 71%
Paul DeJong 70%
Max Muncy 69%
Cody Bellinger 68%
Jason Heyward 68%
Keibert Ruiz 67%
Hunter Renfroe 67%
Luis Rengifo 68%
I’m not sure 90% is sustainable, but I do think we should project around 75%. There aren’t many barrels (he only has 21 in these last two seasons), but he makes the most of them and will continue to do so.
Therefore, I think we can safely project 15-20 homers again for Friedl.
How about the steals? He has had better seasons than 2024 on that front.
Friedl Steals / Attempt Rate by Year
2022: 7 steals, 16% Attempt%
2023: 27 steals, 23% Attempt%
2024 9 steals, 12% Attempt%
He was still around an 18-steal pace last year. That was down a lot from what we saw in 2023. Maybe it had something to do with the lack of health and a bottoming-out OBP (.305). I think that’s fair to say, and I think we should project a higher attempt rate next year. And, in fact, I do!
The one thing you probably can’t get from Friedl is a good batting average. His xBAs the last three years are .210, .233, and .231. He hits a lot of fly balls and doesn’t hit them hard at all, and that’s a recipe for a low BABIP.
Friedl BABIP by Year
2022: .251
2023: .308
2024: .229Career: .272
He should come up from .229 last year, that’s fair to say.
All in all, I think this is a very good buy-low opportunity for Friedl. He was their lead-off hitter against righties last year. He still played against lefties but was in the bottom third of the lineup most of the time. But for his career, the splits are actually the opposite of what you’d think:
vs. RHP: 98 wRC+
vs. LHP: 134 wRC+
That is strange. I don’t think Friedl is at risk of losing a starting job. He’s their center fielder, and I think he should be in the lineup almost every game while healthy.
Rank
Projection
567 PA, 68 R, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 18 SB, .246/.326/.395, $7.68 roto value
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