2025 Team Previews - Houston Astros
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the Houston Astros ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
Last year, in this intro, I went on about how I didn’t think the Astros stealing signs was all that bad and how I thought other teams should have just manned up and gotten better signs. But I won’t do that this year. I think it’s time to forgive and forget, let’s move on.
The truth is that it looks like the Astros dynasty might be coming to an end. The rotation looks shakier and shakier each year, and now Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman have departed. It’s the worst-looking Astros roster in years, although they made a couple of key moves in the infield that make me think they could win the division once again. But it should be a pretty tight race this time (as it was last year).
Roster
The bottom of the lineup is pretty gross. They do have some young bats that will get a shot at playing time this year, but if they don’t have any of those guys pan out - this is one of the lightest-hitting outfield in the league.
I would not expect that to be their Opening Day lineup, but it could happen. McCormick, Trammell, and Meyers - oh my!
The rotation is still respectable, but it’s not the most impressive thing in the world.
The top two are solid but unspectacular, and there are some real question marks about the final three there. They have fallen a long way from the Verlander + Cole + Keuchel + Morton + McCullers rotation in that 2018 season.
Hitters
Yordan Alvarez
Age: 27
Pos: OF
Yordan had the healthiest season of his career last year and did about what we expected him to; he absolutely crushed at the plate:
635 PA, .308/.392/.567, 35 HR, 7 SB, 15% K%, 10.9% BB%
There’s nothing resembling a down year for the big man yet in his career. Here are the numbers since 2021:
At the age of 27, he’s still very much in his prime, and the best might be yet to come. The guy has to have a 40-homer season at some point, right?
The seven steals were a career-high. I imagine that’s about as good as we can possibly hope for. You draft Yordan for the elite batting average, home runs, and RBI. The Astros aren’t looking quite as strong as normal in 2025, with Altuve another year older and Bregman and Tucker gone. That said, it’s tough not to knock in 85+ runs with this kind of talent. Alvarez’s RBI count was surprisingly low last year at 86, but he added 88 runs to it.
There are no holes to poke in the guy’s game besides the fact that he’s priced among the league’s best and doesn’t offer many steals.
The perfect pairing with a second-round Yordan pick might be a first-round Elly De La Cruz or Corbin Carroll pick. Get all of those steals in round one and catch up a bit in long balls and RBI with Yordan. I like that idea a lot.
Rank
Projection
595 PA, 89 R, 31 HR, 97 RBI, 5 SB, .286/.384/.543, $14.23 roto value
Jose Altuve
Age: 34
Pos: 2B
How long can he keep it going? Altuve has been a top-three pick at the second base position for seemingly a decade now, and we’re right back there this year since the position is so, so shallow.
So far, age hasn’t phased him much. The OPS did fall below .800 last year, but it was still a .295 batting average with 20 homers and 22 steals. It’s hard to complain about that from a roto fantasy baseball perspective.
The biggest change was in the walk rate. His swing rate went from 45% to 51.5%, a huge increase - the biggest in the league, in fact!
2023 - 2024 Swing Rate Increases
Jose Altuve +6.4%
Alex Bregman +6.2%
Luis Rengifo +6.2%
Jake Fraley +5.9%
Ramon Laureano +5.4%
Alejandro Kirk +5.0%
Max Kepler +4.8%
Rowdy Tellez +4.8%
Will Benson +4.8%
Paul DeJong +4.8%
That is very notable in leagues where you want your players to walk. In standard 5x5 leagues, we don’t care about that. It can even be good because it gives you more opportunities for home runs.
At 5’6’’, Altuve has never put up gaudy exit velocity numbers. That said, things really bottomed out last year as he reached just a 101 EV 90.
His average exit velocity was low (86.5), but actually a little bit above what he had in 2022 and 2023. We have also seen the K% moving slightly upward these last two years, and he’s landed at 17% in each of the last two. That’s still a very strong figure, but he was below 15% prior to 2023.
Things are moving in the wrong direction for Altuve, no doubt, but he still projects as a valuable fantasy asset at the second base position. He still got on base at a .350 clip, even with the lower walk rate, and that leads to him being useful in runs, steals, and homers. The MVP days are gone, but I am still fine with making Altuve my second baseman on a fantasy team.
Rank
He’s my new #1 at second base.
Projection
695 PA, 99 R, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 16 SB, .266/.333/.431, $12.80 roto value
Yainer Diaz
Age: 26
Pos: C/1B
Old swing-happy Diaz. As was expected, he had his ups and downs last year. At the end of May, he sat at .249/.278/.358 with just three homers and no steals. It was looking perilous for those who drafted him as a top-five catcher. But he really got it together after that and posted an .830 OPS the rest of the way.
His final line:
619 PA, .299/.325/.441, 16 HR, 2 SB
Diaz is a unique character. Not many catchers hit for a high batting average, but he’s managed to hit .291 in 1,005 career PAs. His goal at the dish is to get as many balls into play as possible. He’s up there hacking (59% Swing% the last two years). That turns into a tiny walk rate (3% in 2023, 4% in 2024) and a lower OBP, but it works out fine in batting average and counting stats.
The power is enough to get him over 15 homers (105.75 EV90, 7.6% Brl%), but he’s not a 30-homer threat.
We have very few five-category studs at the catcher position. In fact, I don’t think we have any this year. You can find plenty of guys who can hit the long ball while hurting you in steals and batting average, and Diaz is a bit of the inverse of that. He racks up a bunch of playing time (and he should keep serving as the DH at a good rate in 2025), hits some homers, keeps a high batting average, and drives in runs (84 RBI last year). He’s a good fantasy option; he just gets there in a bumpy fashion.
Rank
He’s my #2 catcher behind Raleigh. That said, you should choose between those two depending on how you started your draft. They are very different contributors.
Here’s a look at the catcher projections just for the fun of it:
You can see how Yainer, Raleigh, and Perez all get to a similar value in very different ways. The beauty of roto fantasy baseball!
Projection
565 PA, 71 R, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 3 SB, .282/.318/.466, $10.33 roto value
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