2022 Fantasy Baseball Insertion Ranking - LA Angels
Creating my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings one team at a time
Explanation & Other Team Links Here
Hitters to Rank
Shohei Ohtani
Mike Trout
Anthony Rendon
Jared Walsh
Jo Adell
Max Stassi
David Fletcher
Brandon Marsh
Shohei Ohtani
I wrote extensively about Ohtani here, so that will allow me to keep it somewhat brief here.
Ohtani’s first three months of the year were just insane, as he went for a .277 batting average with a .685 slugging in the season’s first three months. He hit 28 homers and posted an ungodly 25.4% barrel rate. He was hitting the ball harder than anyone, and was doing it with great frequency, although he was still striking out a bunch (29%).
From July 1st on, he came down to a .237 batting average and a .500 slugging percentage with 18 more homers and a 19% barrel rate. The K% came up to 32% over that time. Over the season’s final two months he went for just a .422 slugging with nine homers (24.6 PA/HR) and a 16% barrel rate with a similar 29.4% K%.
It seemed like the bat slowed down slightly in the second half, and the strikeouts caught up to him a bit. We have seen a “floor” for Ohtani from August-October, but that floor still got him nine homers, 10 steals, and a .374 OBP over 235 PAs. So it seems like Ohtani is a very safe fantasy hitter even if he doesn’t come close to what he did in 2021 again (he probably won’t). He’s a stud in any league with the 25/25 profile, and in OBP leagues he accelerates even more with the huge walk rate.
The return of Trout and Rendon should help Ohtani see more pitches to drive, which I suppose will hurt the walk rate, but should result in more homers and runs scored as well.
If you are drafting him just as a hitter, I’m not sure he’s a first-round bat since he could hurt your batting average and there’s the injury risk with him doing so much on the field.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Luis Robert, Bo Bichette, Ozzie Albies
Mike Trout
There’s not much to say about Trout. He saw just 146 PAs in 2021 but was his normal elite self in that time. Despite all the “injury-prone” talk with Trout, this guy went for 600+ PA in both 2018 and 2019.
He was striking out more in 2021 (28%) in the short time, and he had only stolen two bases (he stole just 11 in a full 2019 season), so there are a few fair questions about if he can hit .290+ again and if he’ll be of any use in steals. You could see those two metrics trending downward as he ages.
But that’s getting pretty nitpicky. I don’t want to guess about health, and giving Trout a 600 PA season should result in a smooth 35+ bombs with a ton of RBI and a top-three in the game OBP. I’ll be happy to take the discount this year.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Manny Machado, Bryce Harper
Anthony Rendon
He also struggled to stay on the field with just 249 PA.
The more pressing question with Rendon is just the actual production.
Since 2019, in almost a full season’s worth of PAs, he’s been a pretty pedestrian power hitter. That could have to do with the negative park move from Washington to LA, he’s never been an exit velocity darling:
The other thing hurting him here may be the change in the baseball, but that’s getting very, very speculative. In 2019 the ball was “juiced”, I think most people have accepted this. This led to a lot of extra homers, and there is the theory out there that the more middle-of-the-road exit velocity players suffered much more from the ball change.
Maybe this warrants some further investigation.
Anyways, Rendon should be a fine source of power wat worst, and the eye at the plate results in strong OBP’s, and hitting behind Ohtani and Trout is a huge plus for RBI. The steals won’t be there, but he should be looked at as a very strong source of batting average, on-base percentage, and RBI
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Austin Riley, Alex Bregman
Jared Walsh
Walsh was one of 2021’s biggest breakouts, as he hit .277/.340/.509 with 29 homers in 585 PA’s. That’s a really strong 20.2 PA/HR, and it came with a decent 26% K% and 8% BB%.
His contact rate was solid at 77%, so a .260-.280 batting average is a reasonable expectation.
What I don’t really believe in is the home run rate. He had a 48% GB%, which is not conducive to a high home rate especially when you don’t have an elite K% (when you’re only putting a ball in play in 35% of your PAs, and 50% of those go into the ground - you’re really cutting down your opportunity).
His exit velocity stuff didn’t really pop out either. His max number was strong (114.8), but the average (83.1) and 90th percentile mark (104.3) were far from a guy you’d expect a 20 PA/HR from, and again this is especially true with the high GB%.
He’s also 28 already, so there’s not exactly much room for growth physically (I think it’s fair to say that a 23-year-old can add bat speed more easily than a 28-year-old). What we have here is a guy that will probably hit 6th in the lineup that won’t hit a ton of homers and steal no bases, while not even having much of a chance at a great batting average either. I’d be out on Walsh as I think he over-performed a lot last year.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Lourdes Gurriel, Yoan Moncada
Jo Adell
He has 272 big league PAs now and has a putrid .205/.255/.339 line in that time with a 32% K%. He’s hit seven homers in 272 PA and stolen two bases. If it weren’t for the youth and the prior top-prospect pedigree, I don’t think we’d be talking much about him this year.
Despite the lack of steals (at any level), he’s actually insanely fast (10th best max sprint speed in the league last year), so there should be some hope for more steals in the future (maybe he makes that the focal point of his game so as to stay in the lineup?).
He also struck out less as the year went on last year (23% K% in his final 140 PA):
That’s a good sign, and his max exit velocity was huge as well (114.9), but the average velo and 90th percentile mark were below league average.
What we have is a very, very raw player with big bat and foot speed. He just has not been able to put anything together yet, but the talent still plays, and he could benefit big time from consistent playing time. I think he’s probably still a bit too expensive in drafts, but he definitely fits the category of “late round potential league winner” just based on the eye-popping max exit velocity and sprint speed, along with the encouraging note that he struck out much less late last season.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Akil Baddoo, Oneil Cruz, Alex Kirilloff
Max Stassi
Struck out a bunch (31%) but hit homers at a decent rate (24.5 PA/HR). This is a poor man’s Zunino, but his max velo (109.5) might suggest that a big downgrade in homer rate is coming.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Carson Kelly, Omar Narvaez
David Fletcher
I don’t think he’s the lead-off hitter when everyone is healthy, which makes him pretty useless for fantasy. He’ll probably hit .300 with his 90% contact rate, but that’s just not worth much by itself in most fantasy leagues.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Luis Arraez, Nick Madrigal
Brandon Marsh
Came up for 260 PA last year and struck out a ton (35%). He also didn’t hit homers (two homers in 260 PA). His contact rate was bad (69%), but he did steal six bases.
He struck out at a pretty bad clip int he minors as well without showing much power there, so I don’t even really see what the ceiling is her. He’s going to need to improve a ton in order to be a starter
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Victor Robles?
Pitchers to Rank
Shohei Ohtani
Noah Syndergaard
Patrick Sandoval
Raisel Iglesias
Shohei Ohtani
He completely fixed his walk issues pretty early on in the year, and that led to him being one of the most dominant starters in the game
He went for a 3.18 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with a great 29% K% and 8% BB%. From June 1st on, those numbers were 28% K% and 4% BB%, just elite. Even in the seasons’ final two months, he was great on the mound - which was really impressive given the workload. He went 28%-3% over those months. The arsenal is deep:
The splitter was one of the game’s best pitches, and the four-seamer and slider were pretty darn good as well. The presence of the cutter gives him even another level to reach, and keeps him afloat on nights when he doesn’t have the splitter (this actually happens somewhat frequently with him).
He should have success when on the mound. The problem is innings. He had no significant injuries last year and only piled up 130 innings. That is seemingly a best-case scenario (maybe 140). That limits his impact on your fantasy team’s pitching line, but he should still be drafted pretty high up there even as just a standalone pitcher.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Logan Webb, Trevor Rogers
Noah Syndergaard
We saw two innings from Thor last year, which were his first two since 2019. He threw 197.2 innings that year, but we’re a long way removed from a guy we can feel confident about.
The Angels gave him a one-year deal, which might loosen the reigns a bit in terms of how many innings he can throw if he stays healthy. Even before he was injured he wasn’t exactly a fantasy ace (4.28 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 24% K% in 2019), so the questions are two-fold here.
The downside outweighs the upside here, but he’s pretty much free in drafts right now. That price will probably bloat as soon as he strikes someone out in Spring Training, so I’d get your shares now or never - but preferably never.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Jesus Luzardo, Andrew Heaney
Patrick Sandoval
Only 13 pitchers that faced at least 300 batters in 2021 had higher SwStr% than Sandoval. His stuff was electric, and it was a shame that he only got to 87 innings (although it’s great for his 2021 draft cost!). The 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP were strong numbers, but not as good as they maybe could have been.
His K%-BB% were middling (26%-10%), but the GB% was up there at 51%.
He threw a ton of changeups because it was arguably the game’s best pitch (34.8% CSW% and 29% SwStr% are just absurd. The next best SwStr% on a changeup in the league (Trevor Richards) went for a mark of 24.3%, and only Devin Williams’ changeup (29.1% ) beat his CSW%.
He will still need to throw an effective fastball to complement that pitch, but the good news is he has two options there between the four-seamer and the sinker. Both pitches were pretty effective last year with average Brl% and nice GB%, although they rarely got whiffs.
The lack of whiffs on the fastballs probably do keep his K% projection down, but if he improves on those two pitches the upside is just absurd here. There are fair innings questions since he’s thrown so few over the last two seasons, but I love Sandoval this year.
Comps/Rank-Arounds:
Raisel Iglesias
Elite closer on a team that *should* win more games than they lose.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Liam Hendriks