2022 Fantasy Baseball Insertion Ranking - Miami Marlins
Creating my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings one team at a time
Explanation & Other Team Links Here
Hitters to Rank
Jazz Chisholm
Avisail Garcia
Jesus Sanchez
Joey Wendle
Jesus Aguilar
Jazz Chisholm
He finished at .248/.303/.425 with 18 homers and 23 steals in 207 plate appearances. That’s a pretty useful fantasy line despite the bad AVG/OBP, and the fact that he did it as a rookie has him going pretty early on in fantasy drafts.
He swung and missed a bunch (12.6% SwStr%, 29% K%), and posted an average-ish barrel rate at 9.0%. A good amount of his success came in the first two months. In April and May he went for a .300 batting average and a .509 slugging percentage. That was on a still high 34% K%, but the barrel rate was elite at 14.5%.
It was pretty easy to see some regression coming giving that he was whiffing a ton, and that hit hard:
From June 1 on he went for a .232 average and a .398 slugging but did still hit 13 homers and stole a dozen bases in 385 plate appearances, both strong numbers.
This guy is just 23, and he’s awfully talented. It wouldn’t be a shock to see his strikeout rate come down to the mid-twenties, which would be great. It’s tough to bet on that though, so you have to assume you’re drafting a .250 batting average and a .300 OBP or so when you’re taking him. Is the great bet at a 20/20 season enough to justify that? I guess that depends on how your team is built early in the draft, but I am never gung-ho to draft these player types.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Javier Baez
Avisail Garcia
Another solid year at the plate for Garcia with the Brewers, he hit .264/.328/.440 with 23 homers and nine steals. The park and the prominent spot in that lineup helped him to a solid R+RBI collection (72 R, 78 RBI). Now he gets a downgrade going to Miami, but he should be an everyday player hitting 4th or 5th in the lineup.
His barrel rate was quite good (12.2%), and the strikeout rate was solid to boot (24%). But that strikeout rate doesn’t make much sense at all since he posted the second-worst SwStr% in the entire league at 18.7%. The other names above 17% in SwStr% were Javier Baez (34% K%), Salvador Perez (26%), Bobby Dalbec (35%), and Adolis Garcia (31%), so yeah that’s not a good sign for his 2022 K% and subsequently his batting average.
The raw power is quite good, which saves his value a bit here. His max velocity was 116.7, his 90th percentile mark was 105.2, and his average was 82.5. That average matches the league average, but the max and 90th percentile marks were well above the league average for those marks.
All of this is to say that Garcia is a really strange profile. I think he’ll be a high-twenties strikeout rate next year with a shot at 30 dingers and a good amount of RBI, but that’s not exactly a tough player to find late in the draft.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Adam Duvall
Jesus Sanchez
The classic power bat rookie that swings out of his shoes. He went for a .251/.319/.489 line with 14 homers in 251 PA (17.9 PA/HR), but struck out 31% of the time with an average walk rate (8%).
He hit .419 on fly balls, which is way above the league average. His BABIP was high at .316. This guy isn’t very fast, and his GB% was pretty high at 45%. I don’t see much reason to get excited about Sanchez. He should hit 25+ homers if he stays in the lineup all year, but it feels like “empty power”, as they say.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Sam Hilliard, Eugenio Suarez, Trey Mancini
Joey Wendle
Playing time is still uncertain here even with the new team, and he doesn’t hit for power (46 PA/HR the last two seasons) and will struggle to get to double-digit steals (eight steals last year). He makes a lot of contact (77%), so you could squeeze a decent batting average out of him - but that’s about it. And if he’s a part-time player, there’s really no reason to have him on a roster.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Jeff McNeil
Jesus Aguilar
He’s been platooning quite a bit in recent years but was on the better side of that last year reaching 506 plate appearances. That was helped by plenty of Garrett Cooper injuries though, so he will probably sit quite a bit against righties this year.
He hit homers at a good rate last year (23 PA/HR), but that came on an average barrel rate of 8.5%. His strikeout rate was nice at 18.5%, but he didn’t have the same kind of bat speed as we’re used to with a max velo of just 110.6. His 90th percentile mark was 102.7, just slightly above league average; this is really disappointing stuff. You’re left with a guy that won’t play every day and might not even be an above-average source of power while giving you nothing in steals or batting average. Pass.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Rowdy Tellez
Garrett Cooper
Cooper isn’t really being drafted right now because he’s looking like a bench bat, but I have a hard time believing that. In his limited playing time last year (250 PA), he went for a strong 11% barrel rate on a solid contact rate of 77%. His 27% K% is a bit high, but the walk rate is also up there at 11%.
He hits the ball hard (114 max velo), but couldn’t get many batted balls in the air (52% GB%), which hurt his power production (28 PA/HR). He’s 31 years old now and has never shown us fantasy relevance for long periods of time, but I like the profile here and I think that’ll earn him some playing time. For now, I have to rank him near the bottom though just because we can’t really forecast 400+ PA.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Jesus Aguilar, Rowdy Tellez
Pitchers to Rank
Sandy Alcantara
Trevor Rogers
Pablo lopez
Elieser Hernandez
Jesus Luzardo
Sandy Alcantara
Another full year on the mound for the workhorse Alcantara. Previously, the reliable innings count was the reason to draft Alcantara, but he added plenty of fuel to that fire in 2021. He went for a 3.19 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP as his strikeout rate (24%) and walk rate (6%) both hit career-bests.
The 24% K% is far from elite, but it works well enough with the high ground ball rate (54%). He still has that heavy sinker that averages 97.6 miles per hour and went for a 65% GB%. That pitch is great and keeps his floor incredibly high.
It’s a great sinker, and the slider was pretty darn elite as well with the 18% SwStr% and a 49% GB% (that number is really high for a slider). And he threw a great changeup as well.
I think the lower strikeout rate is by design, so I think 24% is probably the top of the range. He isn’t going to get a ton of strikeouts throwing this many sinkers, and that works just fine in real life baseball.
The problem is that Alcantara’s draft price bakes in all of this now, he’s going near the top of the list which just doesn’t really work for me. He’s really solid, but I don’t think he’s comparable to the guys that are five points above him in strikeout rate while doing much of the same stuff otherwise.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Julio Urias, Joe Musgrove
Trevor Rogers
Final season line: 133 IP, 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 28.5% K%, 8.4% BB%, 40% GB%
This line was hurt by a bad end of the year after he missed all of August with injury. Before the injury, he had a 2.45 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, a 29% K%, and an 8% BB%. The injury was really unfortunate given how well he was pitching, and also because it stopped him from taking that next step to piling up a good innings count. Now we have to be thinking of a 160 inning season being the target for him this year, which hurts fantasy value a bit. The stuff is no joke, although it is a limited arsenal:
He is 80%+ four-seamer+change, which isn’t the end of the world since both pitches are so good (both elite SwStr% there). The high GB% on the changeup is encouraging, but it’s basically an inverse of the four-seamer which ended up in the air a ton (although not hit that hard as evidenced by the 6% barrel rate). I think there’s probably some room for that four-seamer to step backward in barrel rate, especially since it’s a pretty predictable pitch to see coming.
His slider was good enough last year to think that maybe he will start using it a bit more often in 2022, which could be really good for him. The 14.1% SwStr% overall was 15th best in the league, which gives him a pretty nice floor while he’s on the mound. There’s just a hefty amount of risk here given the limited arsenal, the limited sample we’ve seen, and the workload questions.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Shane McClanahan, Freddy Peralta
Pablo Lopez
He hit the IL before the all-star break and never came back (save 1.2 innings on the last day of the season). That was a crusher for his fantasy managers as he was pitching amazingly right before that.
For the year, he had a strong 3.07 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and the best K% of his career by far at 27.5%. He did that while limiting walks (6.2%) and maintaining a nice GB (47%). He was checking all the boxes for me (K%, BB%, GB%). That strikeout rate was blowing up in June as well (33.5% K% that month with an elite 4.5% BB%).
Now we have a guy that is going to be cheap again, but we have to deal with the fact that he hasn’t thrown more than 111 innings in the Majors yet. I think he’ll still be a really nice value where he’s going, but 150 innings seems like a dream scenario, which is tough for fantasy.
He led his arsenal with the changeup, which is pretty different but it worked with the 17.7% SwStr% and 58% GB%. He dropped off the sinker usage a bit in favor of the four-seamer, but both pitches were pretty good by the numbers in their own respective ways (four-seamer for whiffs and strikes, sinker for ground-balls). The arsenal is deep, and this guy is only 25 right now, so there is room for growth. He’s one of my favorite pitchers out there, but the innings count is likely to hold him back once again in 2022.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Logan Gilbert, Zac Gallen
Elieser Hernandez
Only 51 innings in 2021 and they wren’’t even good (4.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 23.6% K%, 6.2% BB%). He’s supposed to be in the rotation at the beginning of the year, but the Marlins are deep in SP so that’s not a sure thing at all.
I’ve never really understood the hype around him. The only pitch that looks really good is the slider, and your slider is often only as good as your fastball - and he doesn’t have a good fastball. The ADP is outside of the top 300, but barely, and I think it’s still too high (and by high I mean low…).
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Aaron Ashby
Jesus Luzardo
Luzardo’s fall from grace has been really something to watch. He was a trendy breakout candidate in 2020, and then again in 2021 but a little less so. He was absolutely awful last year with a 6.61 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. It’s really hard to find numbers worse than that (only Keegan Akin and Jake Arrieta threw 90+ innings and did worse than that).
The strikeout rate was 22.5%, which is low but not egregiously low. His walk rate was the same - high (10.8%), but not egregiously high. More of the same for the barrel rate (10.1%). None of these numbers show a good pitcher, but they don’t add up to an ERA above six (or even above five for that matter). Here’s his stuff:
His curveball was one of the better pitches by CSW% in the league at 34.3% and the 21.4% SwStr% is elite. Nothing else worked well for him, and his four-seamer got absolutely obliterated with a 16% Brl%.
When you look at the numbers split between his time with the Athletics and Marlins, nothing really changes. He needs to drastically improve the four-seamer to have any shot in fantasy. I expect him to really re-tool this offseason, as anybody would after posting an ERA above 6. The arm is talented enough to make a huge improvement this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be a fantasy-relevant starter this year, and he’s quite cheap as you would expect.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Jameson Taillon, Huascar Ynoa
Dylan Floro
Pretty lackluster closer with a 23% K% and 8% BB%, but he kept it on the ground (49% GB%). He will probably have the first crack at the job, and the Marlins could be a decent team that wins a lot of close games, so he’s worth a roster spot but he’s not a priority closer by any means.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Ken Giles, Andrew Kittredge