2022 Fantasy Baseball Insertion Ranking -- Seattle Mariners
Creating my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings one team at a time
Explanation & Other Team Links Here
Hitters to Rank
Mitch Haniger
Jarred Kelenic
Ty France
Abraham Toro
Kyle Lewis
J.P. Crawford
Mitch Haniger
Haniger was one of the better draft selections in 2021. He went very late in drafts after missing the 2020 season and making just 283 plate appearances in 2019. Things went very well in 2021 for Haniger as he mashed 39 homers, scored 110 runs, and drove in 100 RBI. The batting average wasn’t good at .253, which along with an average BB% of 7.8% kept his OBP way low as well at .318. The barrel rate stands out at 12.6%, but he didn’t show enormous raw power with a max exit velocity of 110 (he was at 112.8 in 2018). Just 29% of his batted balls were fly-balls, which is a middling number. This is to say that I just don’t believe in the 39 homers.
So now I’m looking at a guy that I think over-performed in homers and also doesn’t bring anything in terms of AVG/OBP/SB. I think that’ll result in him being quite over-priced, but I could be wrong about that - the field is pretty sharp.
Jarred Kelenic
The most-hyped prospect of 2021 fell flat, to say the least. He completely obliterated fantasy teams who used a bench spot on him for a couple of months and then him. He did that to the tune of a .182/.265/.350 slash line. He did manage 14 homers and 16 steals in his 377 PA’s, which were split across two big league stints.
Kelenic will likely turn into a useful fantasy player, but the question is when? His 75% contact rate was just one point below league average, and his max velo of 112.5 was 1.5 miles per hour above the average. He managed a respectable barrel rate of 9.9% between strikeouts (28% K%).
He did improve over time, although that wasn’t hard to do considering how completely awful he was to start his campaign:
In September/October he posted a 16.9 PA/HR, an 18% barrel rate, an 80% contact rate, with much improved marks in K% (24.6%) and BB% (10.2%). So that’s a really, really, good sign. I don’t think many people will miss that, but Kelenic’s upside seems very, very much intact. He seems like a perfectly reasonable guy to roll the dice on, even in redraft leagues.
Ty France
France had a decent 2021 season with a .291/.368/.445 line hitting 18 homers, scoring 85 runs, and driving in 73 runs in 152 games. He has never stolen a base, and he is older than he seems at 27 given how rarely we’ve seen him in the Majors. The 16.3% K% backs up the strong batting average, but the low 36 PA/HR is backed up by the 111 max exit velocity and 6.8% Brl%. He doesn’t seem great in anything, and that hurts when you’re looking at a guy that doesn’t profile for 20+ homers or any steals.
Abraham Toro
I’m not sure where this .239 batting average came from given he struck out at just a 14% clip. His 34 PA/HR wasn’t awful either (30-31 is the league average). I’ve been knocking people over and over again here for having bad PA/HR rates, but with Toro we’re looking at a guy who did not help any fantasy teams last year and I think there’s serious room for improvement given his contact ability and potential to hit 15-20 homers. He swiped six bases in 375 PA’s as well, so this is a guy that can contribute in deep leagues and he just turned 25.
The best-case scenario is probably like .280 with 20 homers and a dozen steals.. but I mean that would be a pretty useful fantasy season, right? This all depends on him having a starting job, which isn’t for sure with a lot of free agents still unsigned and the Mariners already showing their aggressiveness, but if he’s an every-day player Toro could be a nice late-round pick in deep leagues.
Kyle Lewis
We didn’t get to see much of Lewis due to injuries as he racked up just 147 PA. In that time he was fine but nothing special with a 29.4 PA/HR, a 25% K%, a low max velo of 109.7 miles per hour, but a strong barrel rate of 14%. It’s hard to know what we have here with a 26-year-old with less than a full season of PA in his three-year career. The power could be above average, and he’ll steal some bases, but that’s really all I can say about the guy. The upside seems fine, but I think that weird Rookie of the Year 2020 season might still keep him a bit too expensive.
J.P. Crawford
No pop, not a ton of steals… he would be interesting for a bench SS on your fantasy team if he’s leading off, but that seems less than a sure thing. He could hit for a good batting average and score a bunch of runs but he’ll crush your HR/RBI without giving you more than a handful of steals.
Pitchers to Rank
Robbie Ray
Logan Gilbert
Ken Giles
Marco Gonzales
Robbie Ray
What a season for Robbie Ray. The 32% K% was unsurprisingly elite, but he made an enormous stride in BB% (6.9%, the best mark of his career by far).
He was mostly a two-pitch guy as you can see there, but those two leading pitches had elite SwStr% for their pitch type. Hitters barreled up the four-seamer at a good clip, but since he was striking out so many hitters and walking so few, that could only do so much damage.
Overall I think it’s wise to be a bit skeptical about a guy with this rocky of a track record who is now 30 years old and just got a massive new contract. Chances are that he’s still very good next year, but he’s not going to be cheap anymore. ADP will be very interesting to see when the dust settles, but overall I think I’ll be a little bit down on Ray given his limited arsenal and previous massive walk issues.
Logan Gilbert
Gilbert looked like a stud for a while last year. In June and July, he posted a 31% K% and a 5.5% BB% with a 36.6 PA/HR, and those elite numbers turned into a 3.35 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. For the whole season, the numbers are much less inspiring as he went for a 4.68 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, a 25.5% K% and a 5.2% BB%. The K-BB ratio is still pretty impressive for a young guy, and that will keep me interested in him for 2022.
Looking at the stuff:
That’s a pretty decent SwStr% on the four-seamer, and solid marks on the slider and changeup as well. It seems quite likely he’ll throw fewer four-seamers as he develops, which could be really good for him. Having four different pitches is nice to see even though none of the pitches stood out as super great. He’s just 24 years old and really showed some good signs, and I love the K-BB stuff, so I’m going to be high on Gilbert.
Ken Giles
Right now he’s being drafted as if he’s the closer (ADP of 247), but Drew Steckenrider figures to give him some competition. I’ll need to re-do my closer rankings in the spring but we’ll slide him in as the closer for now.
Marco Gonzales
Man I’m so tired of this guy. He actually got worse in K% (18.5%) and didn’t even have an elite BB (7.2%). He still pieced together a 3.96 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, which aren’t good numbers but they at least make him a decent streamer option for fantasy purposes.
His most thrown pitch was a sinker which had a 26% GB% which doesn’t make any kind of sense… it was barreled 14.6% of the time and had a 29.8% CSW%. That pitch stinks. His changeup was okay but it’s not set up at all by any kind of fastball. I’ve said too many words already about Marco Gonzales, but hey he at least gets to go above Taijuan Walker!