2022 Fantasy Baseball Insertion Ranking - Los Angeles Dodgers
Creating my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings one team at a time
Explanation & Other Team Links Here
Hitters to Rank
Trea Turner
Mookie Betts
Cody Bellinger
Will Smith
Max Muncy
Justin Turner
Chris Taylor
A.J. Pollock
Gavin Lux
Trea Turner
Elite, elite, elite. He led the league in batting average while hitting 28 homers and stealing 32 bags. Steamer has him for 104 runs scored which is just a silly projection, there’s no way he falls short of 120 runs if he plays a full season with the Dodgers. The raw power isn’t quite enough to feel great about him ever getting to 30+ homers, but the max exit velo of 112 is above league average, and he’s posted PA/HR rates better than 30 (the league average) for the last three seasons. He is likely to lead the league in batting average and runs while being way up there in steals and not hurting your team’s power prospects either. Easy top-three bat this year.
Mookie Betts
Mookie has been messing with fantasy managers for most of his career. He was one of the best fantasy bats in the league in 2018 going 30-30 with a .346(!!) batting average, then he let down on his draft following that up with a 29-16-.295 season. He was elite again in the short 2020 campaign, but now is coming off another disappointing season. In 2021 he went .264/.367/.487 with 23 homers and 10 steals over his 550 plate appearances.
The contact rate was down slightly (but still good at 84.9%), and the barrel rate bottomed out a bit to 7.8%. He’s never been an exit velocity darling, and he topped out at just 108.7 last year. He was somewhat streaky last year, having a great time in July before putting a bit again at the end of the year.
What we have here is a guy that is tough to project. The counting stats shouldn’t ever be a problem with the Dodgers, but there are questions about where the ceiling actually is for homers and steals. With how expensive he will continue to be, a 25 homer, 15 steal year probably isn’t going to cut it. But the upside is 35-20-.300-100-100 which would be a top-five hitter that you can get in the second or third round now.
So this is a tough rank, but I would lean towards being pro-Betts past pick #10 or so just because of the safety of the counting stats - you know he won’t hurt your team anywhere and that’s pretty valuable early on in drafts.
Cody Bellinger
The incredibly disappointing season for Bellinger will make him one of the most interesting names of 2022 drafts. He hit just .165 with a .302 slugging percentage, hitting 10 homers and driving in 36 runs across 350 plate appearances (about 55% of a full season).
It seems reasonable that the bad performance had a lot to do with the injury issues that were lingering. He’s never been a Stanton-type exit velocity guy, but he clearly just wasn’t able to swing the bat the same way as usual in 2021:
You can see the 108.7 max velo mark being the worst of his career by two entire MPH. His 7.1% Brl% was also quite uncanny for him, and the strikeouts came up to 27%, a new career-high. Walks also came down quite a bit (to 8.9% after being at 10%+ every season prior). That is a little more alarming because maybe it’s a sign that he just wasn’t seeing the ball or pressing quite a bit at the plate. It could also be explained by the fact that pitchers just didn’t see him as a huge threat and attacked him more than they were previously willing to. In April and May, his non-intentional walk rate was a sky-high 14%, but then after June 1st, it was just 6%. That would give some credence to the fact that pitchers noticed he didn’t have much and just went after him instead of the rest of the loaded Dodgers lineup.
I am not sure how far Bellinger will end up falling, but I do have a feeling it will be too far. This is a guy who was a highly-touted prospect, who is currently just 26 years old and has two MVP-worthy seasons under his belt already. If he is healthy in 2022, I expect a major rebound.
Will Smith
He managed a surprising 501 PAs, and now with Keibert Ruiz gone there are no questions about who the Dodgers catcher is. He started 111 games as a catcher and three at DH. That’s lower than you’d like to see at DH given that he’s drafted as a top-three catcher, but it’s not out of the question that he gets more of those starts if the Dodgers have some injury issues.
Anyways, he will project in the top three in catcher PAs, which is quite valuable in and of itself. He also will contribute in nearly every single category, with his career K% of 21% being really impressive to go with his quite good power numbers (career 17.4 PA/HR) and a great walk rate (career 11.5%). He even stole three bags last year.
The question with catchers is not so much where to rank them against each other, but where to rank them against non-catchers. I still have no idea what to do in that regard, but Smith is a top-two catcher for 2022.
Max Muncy
He was one of the most impressive hitters in the league in 2021 with his ridiculous and rare combination of power (16.3 PA/HR, 16.1% Brl%, 112.3 max velo) and contact ability (20% K%, 78% contact). That propelled him to an improved batting average (.249) to go along with his elite OBP (.368) and slugging (.527).
Muncy looked like a legit top-ten hitter in the game last year, and even at age 31 I’d be pretty interested in him as a top-30 guy. The problem is the injury. He tore his UCL on the last game of the regular season and now there are questions about when he’ll return. There is a chance he’s ready to go for the start of the season, but there’s always the chance that doesn’t happen. There’s also the chance that he’s just not as effective as before with the injury, so Muncy is a tough rank.
We’ll have to adjust this as we get some more news in the spring, but for right now I’ll be a bit low on him.
A.J. Pollock
It’s not a slam dunk that Pollock will be an everyday player for the loaded Dodgers team, but if he does end up in there he’ll likely be useable in fantasy. His 20 PA/HR, 11% Brl%, 19% K%, 111.2 max exit velocity, and 77% contact rate is quite an impressive combination of numbers, and the RBI opportunities will be plentiful even if he hits 7th or 8th in the lineup.
He is 34 years old now and the stolen base days are long gone, but he’s never been anything but a good hitter when healthy. You can do a lot worse than Pollock in the later rounds, but we’ll have to make sure he’s projected to be a starter alongside Bellinger and Betts, which is far from a certainty with Chris Taylor rejoining the Dodgers.
Chris Taylor
He wasn’t a free agent for very long as the Dodgers brought him back on a four-year deal. Taylor was insanely good to start the year with a .262/.353/.448 slash line through the season’s first three months. He added 10 homers and seven steals in those 300 PAs while scoring a ridiculous 55 runs and driving in 39. He was one of the top counting-stat players in the league at that point. From July on he wasn’t a ton worse (.247/.305/.427, 10 more homers, six more steals in 282 PAs), but the on-base percentage fell off quite a bit which cost him runs. It also didn’t help his cause that Trea Turner joined the team, pushing Taylor to the bottom of the lineup when he started.
Now with Corey Seager gone, you would figure there’d be a role for Taylor most days, which will make him a valuable fantasy player, especially with his multi-position eligibility. He seems like someone who will just be perpetually under-valued in fantasy, and I don’t have many doubts about him finding 500+ PAs again next year.
Justin Turner
Many parts of Turner’s 2021 campaign made it look like his best year ever, which is hard to believe. Over 612 PAs, he had just a 16% K% while still posting a great home run rate of 23 PA/HR. He popped 27 dingers and drove in 87 while also scoring 87 runs and slashing .278/.361/.471. I mean that’s a near stud for fantasy purposes. At some point, this is going to stop happening, as the guy is 37 years old. But we’ve been saying that for a few years now and the fantasy managers that use the late-round pick on him keep getting majorly rewarded.
The ADP of 142 makes him much, much too cheap if you think he can repeat 2021, and it gives quite a bit of wiggle room as well. The risk is that the age catches up to him all at once and you get very little from a mid-round pick. The steals are certainly not going to be there and the batting average is a bit capped with the declining foot speed (although with an 84% contact rate it really can’t get that low), so there’s not much of a floor to fall back on here if he does lose his power numbers, and it’s not like he’s guaranteed a prominent spot in the lineup anyway - so this is a risky pick but there’s merit to it nonetheless.
Gavin Lux
Lux was the next big thing in Los Angeles a couple of years ago, but it hasn’t materialized as of yet. The departure of Corey Seager would seem to open up another serious shot at everyday playing time if he shows improvement in spring, and exactly none of the upside from 2019 has gone away here. Steamer currently has him at just 296 PAs as he’s losing out majorly to guys like Justin Turner and Chris Taylor, but there’s no doubt he could find his way to 500+.
He made a lot more contact in 2021 (22% K% after posting a 29% and a 28% in his first two seasons), but that came at the expense of power production (54 PA/HR, 4% Brl%). He has more than enough bat speed (112.6 max exit velocity) to turn into a legitimate power hitter, so there are still potentially big things ahead for the 24-year-old. He has struggled to get the ball in the air in his young career (48% GB% in 2020, 47% last year), but we know that is something that can change in a hurry. All of these are positive indicators as far as I’m concerned.
Will he put it together in 2022? Odds would lean towards no since he has a few different obstacles to overcome, but this is a guy that we have seen both contact and power ability from, just not at the same time. If he’s in the Opening Day lineup for the Dodgers, I think he’s a guy I will want to have on my fantasy teams.
Pitchers to Rank
Walker Buehler
Julio Urias
Trevor Bauer
Tony Gonsolin
Andrew Heaney
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Walker Buehler
People love to nitpick this guy, but maybe that will end after his dominant and full 2021 season where he threw 207.2 innings with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.
The thing to pick on would be the 26% K% and the .247 BABIP. You wouldn’t really expect a 0.97 WHIP without the elite strikeout rate, so that’s a somewhat fair criticism. What isn’t fair is not recognizing just how good this guy’s arsenal is:
Six pitches deep with great SwStr% metrics on four pitches, and strong ground-ball numbers to boot. The cutter being there is great to see given the 10.2% Brl% on the four-seam. He can use that cutter more often to keep hitters off the velocity of the four-seamer a bit. He has great command and does not give up many free passes, which sets up those great breaking balls really well.
At this point, we should not be projecting anybody for 200+ innings, as everything has to go right for a guy to get there. This might make Buehler over-drafted as people may now view him as one of the very few workhorses in the league under the age of 30. It would not be a surprise whatsoever to see him throw only 170-180 innings even without any serious injuries occurring, but hey if the Dodgers don’t add any SP depth they might not have that luxury anyways.
Buehler’s heavy workload was also helped, I think, by the Giants being so competitive. It seems pretty likely that the Dodgers would just run away with the division which would let them skip a few starts from Buehler if they wanted.
This is me being nitpicky though. I don’t really care if he throws only 180 innings, to me that’s not much different than 210 when we’re talking about this volatile SP position. I guess I’d rather take a guy with a 30%+ K%, but there really aren’t many guys to feel more confident in than Buehler given the age, team situation, and track record.
Julio Urias
Urias is seeing a huge boost in ADP after his great 2021 season. He threw 185.2 innings (which few people thought he could do) to the tune of a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. His K% reached 26%, far from elite, but very much useful with the 5% BB%. It’s crazy that this guy is only 25 years old.
An average SwStr% on the four-seamer, but a nice 29.7% CSW% and a quite good 35% FB%. He *probably* should have given up more homers than he did (0.9 HR/9), but his location was so on point that maybe that’s not really true. The point is that his fastball isn’t overpowering, and the 35% FB% seems somewhat driven by good fortune.
The curveball was strong without being elite in terms of whiffs. The changeup was super effective when thrown with a 61% GB% and a 15% SwStr%. No hitter could do anything with it as you see that 0.8% BB%, but he was clearly not throwing it in the strikezone very often (do the math there - 21.9% minus 14.9% leaves just a 7% called strike rate). So that pitch is dependent on getting ahead with the fastball and curve.
The young age and pristine command gives him a great ceiling/floor combination, I’m just worried we’ve already seen the ceiling. He’s going sometimes as a top-ten starting pitcher, and I don’t think I’ll be going that far.
Trevor Bauer
I’ll come back to this when we get some clarity on his situation.
Tony Gonsolin
It was tough to get a read on Gonsolin last year given how inconsistently he was pitching. He started the year as an opener, and then got hurt right as his pitch count was elevating with all of the troubles the Dodgers had in their rotation. When all was said and done he had a solid 3.23 ERA but a bad 1.35 WHIP in 55.2 innings. That came with a strong 27% K%, but a horrible 14% BB%. Given his 9% walk rate in 2019 and his 4% rate in 2020, I’m willing to forgive that. Here’s the arsenal breakdown:
That’s a bad fastball, a really good slider, a really good splitter, and a bad but rarely used curveball. The problem with profiles like this is you just can’t go out and throw a slider/splitter 70% of the time, you have to throw that fastball for the sake of your arm and for the sake of making your other pitches effective.
The good news is that he actually threw that fastball at 95 on average in 2020, but then it came down to 93 last year. Maybe that was more because he was in a starting role for 2021, or maybe it’s because of some of the health issues? I’m not sure, but jumping up to 95 would probably help. He also posted just a 12% whiff rate (this is whiffs on SWINGS only, not total pitches), on the pitch in 2021, which was down three points from what he was doing in 2019 and 2020. It seems like the fastball should perform better than it did next year, which makes him a pretty interesting buy.
We’ll still need to see what the rest of the Dodgers offseason does, but if Gonsolin is in the rotation he’s going to be very, very interesting.
Andrew Heaney
He’s currently in as the Dodgers #3 starter, but I would imagine the Dodgers aren’t done shopping yet. If he’s projecting for 30 starts, he should probably be rostered in deep leagues.
He was downright bad in 2021 with a 5.83 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP. But his 27% K% and 7% BB% are solid enough. The longball was the problem with a 2.01 HR/9. He’s had those troubles majorly in the past, so it’s unlikely they go away, but I don’t think he’ll be posting another rate that high again.
The arsenal is quite limited, but at the age of 30 with a new, quite creative team, there’s certainly the possibility he re-tools, and the swing-and-miss stuff has always been there. I’d be happy to take a shot on him very late in drafts given the upside we’ve seen from him at times.