2022 Fantasy Baseball Insertion Ranking - Tampa Bay Rays
Creating my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings one team at a time
Explanation & Other Team Links Here
Hitters to Rank
Wander Franco
Randy Arozarena
Brandon Lowe
Austin Meadows
Mike Zunino
Vidal Brujan
Yandy Diaz
Manuel Margot
Wander Franco
The game’s number one prospect made 308 plate appearances in 2021 and overall looked pretty impressive. He made tons of contact (85% contact%, 12% K%), and turned that into a solid .288 batting average. His walk rate was average, which put his OBP at .341.
The power numbers he provided did not help your fantasy team. He hit 7 homers (44 PA/HR) with a 4.9% Brl% and a 109.6 max exit velocity. His 90th percentile exit velocity was 102.4, which is slightly above the league average (101.8). He hit more ground-balls than the average man as well (45.3% vs. a league average of 43.3%).
We expected some steals from Franco, which we didn’t get (he attempted three steals 3/on 75 singles+walks, a bad 4% stolen base attempt rate). The 2021 numbers really aren’t that important for a guy like Franco, I don’t think, especially given he only played half of a year.
Looking into the minor league numbers for homers and steals: his minor league total PA/HR finished at 35 PA/HR, and his stolen base attempt rate was at a much better 17%. That’s good news for the steals projection, and you have to keep in mind that this guy will be just 21 years old entering the 2022 season. It would be quite shocking if his big league PA/HR stayed in the mid-thirties moving forward given his age and [alleged] skill set.
I’m going to post the rolling SLG and K% charts which are influenced pretty hard by the short sample size, but they show an interesting picture nonetheless:
From August 1st on he slugged .506 (although just four homers and a 45 PA/HR, so he did this mostly with doubles and triples), and struck out at just a 6% clip - a ridiculously good number. Don’t read too much into that though since we’re looking at just 180 PAs there.
What we have here is a guy that can be depended on for everyday playing time (not the easiest thing to find on the Rays), very good to great batting average, probably very good to great on-base percentage, and [less confident here] 15-25 steals. That’s a pretty strong fantasy player even if he does remain a league-average home run hitter in his sophomore campaign. I think it’s probably closer to a 50/50 proposition that the power improves next year; you can be much more confident that he’ll be a 30+ homer guy in the next three years versus the next one.
Anyways, you are not getting any kind of discount on Franco this year, his ADP sits just barely outside of the top 50 right now. The range of outcomes is pretty large, you could see him being a top ten hitter, but I could also see him falling outside of the top 100 if the homers and steals don’t improve. In redraft, I think I would lean towards the fade given the price and uncertainty in a one-year situation for a 21-year-old with just 300 PAs under his belt.
Randy Arozarena
It was a pretty quiet 20-20 season for Randy, and it took him a full season (604 PA) to get there. That isn’t great news for his power production (30 PA/HR), since 20 is a pretty pedestrian home run count these days.
The good news on that front is that his 9.5% Brl% out-paced that 30 PA/HR, and his exit velocity metrics all put him a step better than league averages. What kept the total down was a high strikeout rate (28% K%) and a high ground-ball rate (49% GB%). He did that kind of thing in 2020 (29% K%, 47% GB%), so now we’ve seen almost 700 PA’s of him being like this.
He will be just 27 for the 2022 season, and if there is one thing that can change in a hurry it’s the batted ball profile stuff like ground-balls and fly-balls. He has good bat speed and tons of speed, which makes for a very, very high upside player. The batting average is capped by the high strikeout rate, but he does profile as a high BABIP guy with the speed (and a high GB% is actually good for BABIP).
It seems to me that Arozarena is very unlikely to hurt a fantasy team since he can seemingly help in nearly every category (although maybe not all at once…) and the ceiling is huge. A 30-30 season seems within the range outcomes, but the cost is still high at a top-60 player right now.
Brandon Lowe
To this point in his career, Lowe has seemed Gallo-esque, meaning he does three things a lot: strikes out, walks, and homers. He took the power production to a new level in 2021 with 39 homers in 615 PA’s (15.8 PA/HR). That came on a sky-high 14% Brl%, and the strikeout rate honestly wasn’t even all that terrible at 27%.
He does depend on keeping a high FB% (43%, 43%, 44% last three seasons) to keep the power production elite, but if he’s maintained that for three years I would expect the same next year (he, and the Rays, clearly wants to hit fly balls, so you wouldn’t expect any kind of change in approach). He cleared a new career-high in steals last year as well, but the total was just seven which isn’t really something that is going to boost his fantasy value much.
We are looking at a 35+ homer guy that should have plenty of RBI opportunities next year with Franco and Arozarena ahead of him, and with his strikeout rate improving the last two seasons, he isn’t even necessarily a guy that will sink your team’s batting average (it’s very possible that he will be that guy, but it’s not a given). Keep in mind that he’s just 27 years old as well so there is still room for improvement.
Austin Meadows
It’s been a whirlwind of a career for Meadows who has been one of the best hitters in the game at times, and one of the worst at other times.
His OPS by month last year:
Apr .765
May .976
Jun .700
Jul .789
Aug .610
Sep .773
He finished the year with a bad .234/.315/.458 line, with 27 homers (21.9 PA/HR) and just four steals. The 21% K% and 10% BB% make the .234/.315 part look pretty unlucky (.249 BABIP, but a crazy high 53% FB% which backs up a low BABIP - mind you). You should see improvement in both of those arenas next year, but how much? Hard to know.
What we do know is that Meadows has legit power upside (33 homers in 2019 with a 17.9 PA/HR) and can also steal double-digit bases. The batting average has been all over the place in his career (.287, .291, .205, .234), so it’s hard to make a projection there - but that’s more good news than bad given that he’s coming off a bad batting average.
I think Meadows may end up being too cheap given how bad the final numbers from 2021 look, and he’s still just 26 years old. He will probably continue to be a frustrating guy to roster, but the upside is quite large.
Mike Zunino
Zunino had one of the most ridiculous years I’ve ever seen in 2021. He was basically a video game hitter against left-handed pitching (8.1 PA/HR, 32% Brl%, .868 SLG), and hit quite a few homers against righties too (17 homers on a 14.5 PA/HR with a 19% Brl%, but a 39% K% and a .397 SLG).
For the year he made 375 PA’s and hit 33 homers while striking out at a huge 35% clip that led to a .216 batting average and a .301 OBP. He is extremely easy to figure out, he’s a catcher that will crater your team’s batting average and on-base percentage, but will hit you at least a good amount of homers in the process - and he will get you quite excited to see a left-handed pitcher facing the Rays.
Vidal Brujan
He was almost as hyped last year as Franco, but things went terribly for him in the bigs. He slashed .077/.077/.077 in 26 PAs before being sent back down to the minors. In AAA he hit .262/.345/.440 with 12 homers and 44 (!!) steals in 441 PA’s. That makes him a relevant fantasy name for 2022 again if you think he can just get on base a little bit. That will depend on him being a starter (not at all guaranteed), and getting on base at least a little bit (can’t steal if you’re not on first base). It’s obviously not fair to judge that horrible slash line in the Majors given it was just 26 plate appearances. He did make contact on 82% of his swings, a much better number than the 31% K% suggests. Anyways, I’m not going to use any more words here, Bruan is a “wait and see” guy with massive steals upside for 2022.
Yandy Diaz
Playing time is a bit more solid with Diaz here, and he has always at least provided a strong OBP (.340 in 2019, .428 in 2020, .353 in 2021). He hit just 13 steals and stole one base in his 541 PA’s in 2021, and he’s now a bottom-half of the order bat with the Rays having all of these young guns in the lineup. I like him more than Wendle given the playing time and OBP, but he’s not very interesting for fantasy overall.
Manuel Margot
13 steals in 464 PA’s with 10 homers made him somewhat useful in deep leagues, and that could keep up in 2022. That would depend on him being an everyday starter, which seems to be the case for right now but who knows what the Rays will do in free agency when things open back up. He’ll probably hit #7 or #8 in the lineup but could lead off some against left-handed pitchers (who he slugged .406 off of in 2021 with a tiny 13% K%). Still not much to write about for fantasy, but I’m ranking all three of these guys for now.
Pitchers to Rank
Shane McClanahan
Shane Baz
Luis Patino
Corey Kluber
Drew Rasmussen
Nick Anderson
Shane McClanahan
27.3% K%, 7.2% BB%, 37 PA/HR, 47% GB%, and a sick, sick arsenal:
That velocity on the four-seam is actually a bit misleading, as he regularly reached triple-digits with the pitch. The SwStr% of 8.4% is decent for a four-seamer but much lower than you’d expect when you see him throw the pitch. The slider and curveball were amazing as you can see the CSW% and SwStr% numbers there (and a big bonus that they both generated high GB% rates). He was unlucky in power numbers at the beginning of the year, which bloated the ERA a bit.
I think McClanahan is legitimately a top-ten pitcher in terms of talent, but the workload doesn’t really keep him in that conversation for fantasy purposes. He threw 123.1 innings in his 25 starts, reaching six innings only five times. That hurts quite a bit in quality starts situations, but man I don’t think you’ll be disappointed taking this guy even despite that.
He is currently the 41st pitcher off the board in drafts (34th starter), which I think is a bit too cheap. I would be happy to have this kind of arm as an SP2 on a team, but that *might* make me want to prioritize some higher innings counts with my following SP picks.
Shane Baz
Just 13.1 innings in the bigs for Baz, but they were good with a 2.03 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, a 37% K%, and a 6% BB%. Most of his runs came on the long ball (gave up 3 homers in those innings). The K% and BB% are extremely encouraging, even in the short sample size. He faced the Blue Jays, Marlins, and Yankees in those three starts in case you’re wondering.
His minor league numbers were incredible as well:
AA: 32.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 41% K%, 2% BB%
AAA: 46 IP, 1.76 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 36% K%, 6% BB%
That made for just 92 innings total, so clearly we have the same issue here as we do with McClanahan. Not sure he can even reach 150 innings with the kid-gloves the Rays use on these valuable SP assets, but man everything looks like it will be amazing when he is on the bump.
That is a crazy high SwStr% on his 108 four-seamers, and the same can be said with the slider and curve as well. His stuff is disgusting.
I’m going to be high on him like I’ll be high on McClanahan. I just don’t like to be the guy that tries to project IP and QS stuff like a lot of other people think they can do.
Luis Patino
Patino was the Rays breakout SP pick for 2021, and now he finds himself an afterthought! It wasn’t a good 2021 season for Patino with a 4.31 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, a 22% K%, and a 9% BB% in just 77.1 innings. That means we have the same innings questions with Patino as the prior two names, but much worse numbers to start with. Here’s the “stuff”:
Pretty good-looking fastball, which is great to see. Everything else was pretty meh, however. I would rather see a strong fastball and underwhelming secondary stuff rather than the other way around, and this guy is just 22 years old. In 29 AAA innings last year he had a much better 34% K% and 9% BB%, and he has never been below 25% in his minor league career. There’s plenty of upside here, I think, but given the fact that we have the same workload concerns present here that hurts his upside quite a bit. Unlike these last two names, he is quite cheap - so Patino is probably someone I’d be willing to take some stabs at.
Corey Kluber
He was mediocre overall in 2021 with a 24% K%, a 9.7% BB%, and a 3.83 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP. That’s with a no-hitter thrown in there too.
Nothing to get excited about here, his curveball was okay but he doesn’t have much of fastball to lead the arsenal. Add on to all of this the fact that he hasn’t thrown more than 80 innings since 2018, and we have a guy that there doesn’t seem to much point in drafting.
Drew Rasmussen
I guess this guy is going to be in the rotation to start the year? We’ll have to see what the Rays do in free agency, but right now Rasmussen is in the starting five. He posted a 24% K%, an 8% BB%, and a 47% GB% - which is good albeit in just 76 innings. He was a reliever/opener for most of the year, but at the end of the year, he did make eight legitimate starts going at least four innings in each (maxed out at five innings). Maybe the Rays are getting away from the opener business and Rasmussen will make 20+ legitimate starts and stretch to six innings. If that does happen, I think a 24% K% would be quite a rosy projection. During that stretch at the end of the year, he posted just a 17% K% - so that’s pretty discouraging.
I don’t think there’s much here, as even the best-case scenario seems like a very questionable pitcher. I’d rather have Kluber, and I don’t want Kluber.
Andrew Kittredge
We’re pretty much guessing with saves here given that Nick Anderson won’t be around for most of the year, but the Rays win a lot of close games so you have to dip your toes in the pool a bit. Kittredge was very good in 2021 and is currently the favorite to lead them in saves, but we know the saves will be divvied up between a handful of names.