2022 Fantasy Baseball Insertion Ranking - Minnesota Twins
Creating my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings one team at a time
Explanation & Other Team Links Here
Hitters to Rank
Byron Buxton
Jorge Polanco
Alex Kirilloff
Mitch Garver
Josh Donaldson
Miguel Sano
Max Kepler
Luis Arraez
Byron Buxton
There hasn’t been much doubt about what Buxton can do on the field for quite some time now, but 2021 took that to a whole new level. In his 254 plate appearances, he hit .306/.358/.647 with 19 homers (13.4 PA/HR) while stealing nine bases. His barrel rate was near the top of the league at 17.9%, and he didn’t even strike out all that much (24.4%).
He has really brought down the strikeout rate in recent years, he was a 29-31% guy from 2015-2018, but the last three seasons he’s gone 23%, 27%, 24% (albeit in limited samples each year).
Before, we thought he would be an elite steals guy with good power. Now he seems to be an elite power guy with good to great steals as well. He is one of the fastest players in the league which keeps the BABIP up, and he swings the bat incredibly hard. He swings more than most hitters (53% last year), which means he will draw almost no walks (5.1% last year and a ridiculous 1.5% in 2020).
If you guaranteed 140+ games for Buxton, he would arguably be a first-round pick. You can’t guarantee 140 games for anybody, and much less so for Buxton who has topped out at 511 plate appearances (in 2017), and hasn’t gone over 300 since then.
If you’ve been reading this, you know that I’m not big on predicting injuries. I want to draft Buxton because he will be a league-winning type of player if he does luck into a full season of PAs. ATC projections are giving him 498 PA, 28 homers, and 15 SB.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Christian Yelich, George Springer, Jarred Kelenic? (major upside+risk profiles)
Jorge Polanco
Polanco had the best season of his career in 2021, pounding 33 homers (beating his previous career-high by 11) while slashing a solid .269/.323/.503 and swiping 11 bags.
He didn’t hit the ball particularly hard (max velo of 111.8, 90th percentile mark of 103, both right around league average), and his barrel rate barely beat the league average at 10%. The good thing here is that he doesn’t strike out much, which gives him many more opportunities for good things to happen. He’s now gone under a 20% K% every single season of his career. He did really well at keeping the ball in the air last year (just a 33% GB%), which also backs up that high HR total.
You might be surprised to hear that Polanco is just 28 years old, so things are looking up in that regard.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Willy Adames, Austin Meadows
Alex Kirilloff
Injuries shortened Kirilloff’s first campaign in the big leagues, he reached just 229 plate appearances last year. In that time, he showed the ability to hit the long ball (12.8% Brl%, 28.6 PA/HR), and he did not strike out at a terrible rate either (22.7%). The walks weren’t there (5.2%), but that was mainly because he was swinging a bunch (54.7%).
His max velocity was just 108.4 and his 90th percentile mark was also lackluster at 102.4, but again he didn’t have much opportunity at the plate. He hit way too many ground-balls (48.8% GB%), which isn’t a good sign - but again, this could turn around in a hurry.
All-in-all, a guy this young that showed off a 12.8% barrel rate with a low strikeout rate is really encouraging, and Kirilloff should have locked in playing time as the Twins are in a bit of rebuild currently. He’s got some nice power upside and doesn’t really profile to hit for an anemic batting average like a lot of the other young power hitters we see.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Oneil Cruz, Ian Happ
Mitch Garver
Got back into his 2019 form of hitting homers at a very high rate (18.7 PA/HR in his 243 PAs). He struck out a bunch (29%), but walked at a good clip (13%), which led to a .256/.358/.517 line.
Projection systems view him as a 400-ish plate appearance catcher, which is slightly above the average line for a catcher - so that’s good news. You have a guy here that should give you a strong supply of homers while he’s in the lineup, and RBI and R could follow that since he’s often hitting in the top five of the lineup (he even led off some times over the last few seasons).
I think he’s a pretty nice guy to target for a cheaper price at catcher, but there’s probably not a path to 500+ PAs here which you’ll get from the more expensive guys.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Mike Zunino, Elias Diaz
Josh Donaldson
Donaldson smashed the ball last year in his 541 PAs, hitting 26 homers on a 17.4% Brl% with a max velo of 114.7. His 90th percentile exit velocity was one of the best in the league at 106.2, and he kept on making a good amount of contact (21% K%) while taking a ton of walks (13.6%).
It seems like Donaldson can still be an extremely effective fantasy hitter, there are just questions about if he can stay in the lineup. Even when he’s healthy, the Twins aren’t likely to start him every single day, and he’s had all kinds of injuries over the last few years. At the age of 36, you have to be very wary of him reaching 500 PAs this year, but there’s not a great reason to doubt per-PA production with him yet.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Justin Turner, Joey Votto
Miguel Sano
One of the easiest hitters in the league to project. He swings really freaking hard and tries to hit as many homers as possible, but that comes with a whole mess of strikeouts (34.4% K%). That has led to very low batting averages in his career, and there’s no reason to think anything is changing.
He does walk at a high rate (11% last year, 12.5% in 2019), so that helps a bit in OBP leagues, but Sano is going to be a crater for your team’s batting average.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Jesus Sanchez
Max Kepler
I continue to get excited about Kepler, even though he really hasn’t delivered a good fantasy season yet. He has the elusive combination of big power and low strikeout rates with some steals, but things just haven’t all worked out together yet.
He will be 29 this season, so no age concerns from me, but after so many failed (for fantasy purposes) seasons, is it time to give up hope?
I don’t think so. Kepler got to just 490 PAs last year with some injuries, but he hit a solid 19 homers in that time with ten steals. The BABIP luck was awful (.225), but that’s become the norm for him (.261, .276, .236, .244, .236, .225 the last six seasons). The reason for this is how few line drives and grounders he hits, he’s just hitting the ball up into the air. So that results in a ton of fly-outs on balls that don’t go over the fence.
I suppose we should expect another low BABIP here. The upside is for like a .270 BABIP season and some home run luck that gets him to 30 homers with the potential for 15-20 steals and a good amount of runs scored at the top of the lineup. The best thing in his profile is the low strikeout rate (19.6% last year), he has gone under 20% in four straight seasons now.
Last year he found himself in a platoon at times, not playing much against lefties and never leading off against them. That hurts the projections a bit, but his price in drafts has really, really bottomed out - so I’m more than interested in him againt his year.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Eduardo Escobar, Alex Kirilloff
Luis Arraez
He’s a Nick Madrigal type slap hitter that won’t hit homers but will hit for a nice batting average. The problem is that he won’t steal bases either, so this is just stupidly empty batting average - not sure why you’d want to go here.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Nick Madrigal, Victor Robles
Pitchers to Rank
Joe Ryan
Taylor Rogers
Bailey Ober
Joe Ryan
He made just five starts in the bigs last year, but they were strong. He went for a 30% K% and a 5% BB% in that time, but gave up too many homers at 1.35 HR/9. That led to a 4.05 ERA, but his WHIP was elite at 0.79.
His K:BB line was elite in the minors as well, as he struck out 92 batters and walked just 12 in 66 innings. He gave up homers there too (1.2 HR/9), so it seems we have a profile to trust here.
The low fastball velo is surprising for a guy with a 30% K%, but the 11.1% SwStr% shows that there’s something good going on with the pitch. His slider was great as well with the 33.3% CSW% and 18.2 SwStr%. The changeup was quite bad, and you can see all of the homers from that pitch and the fastball.
It seems like Ryan can be a nice source of strikeouts (at least on a per-inning basis), but he seems to be prone to the blowup start as he gets barreled up so often. He’s just 25 years old, so there’s plenty of upside here - but I would be a little bit hesitant on him given the uncertainty.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Triston McKenzie, Luis Patino
Taylor Rogers
The Twins have a seemingly decent offense, but the pitching is going to be hugely questionable. They also are prone to splitting up closer duties, and Rogers isn’t exactly an elite bullpen arm.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Ken Giles, Dylan Floro
Bailey Ober
He went for a 4.19 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 92.1 innings, which was decent. The walks are great (5%), but the strikeouts are mediocre (25%).
Mediocre seems to be a good word to use for his pitch arsenal as well:
Weak fastball, but surprising SwStr% on it. He didn’t give up a ton of barrels on anything, so that’s good. He’s just 26 years old, but I don’t know there’s not much to get excited about here. I think I’d rather try someone with bigger upside at this point in the draft.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Andrew Heaney, Adbert Alzolay