2022 Fantasy Baseball Insertion Ranking - Baltimore Orioles
Preparing my 2022 fantasy baseball ranks one team at a time!
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Hitters to Rank
Cedric Mullins
Ryan Mountcastle
Trey Mancini
Adley Rutschman
Austin Hays
Anthony Santander
Cedric Mullins
Probably 2021’s biggest breakout, Mullins went .291/.360/.518 with 30 bombs and 30 steals while scoring 91 runs and driving in 59. It was also Mullins’ first full season as his previous high in PAs in a year was 191 in 2018.
The underlying numbers make the 30 homers seem more like a best-case scenario as his barrel rate sat just 8.1% (this is low especially given that he put a ton of balls in play, remember that the denominator on barrel rate is balls put in play, not total swings or pitches seen) and the max exit velocity didn’t even crack 110. He did a nice job keeping the ball off of the ground (41% GB%), but we know that you can’t really depend on that metric to hold up year to year. The contact rate (82%) was legit and matches his 19% K%, and he walked at a league-average level. I think the power probably recedes a little bit, but the guy did just turn 27 years old so there’s some room for growth here as well that we can’t ignore.
Even if he does come down to a 20-25 homer clip, the steals should continue to be there and you’d expect a large number of runs leading off for an offense that isn’t completely useless. I’ll probably be a little lower than the field here, but I don’t really see a problem with where he’s going to go just because the power/steal combination can be so hard to find.
Ryan Mountcastle
For the whole season the numbers weren’t that impressive with a .255/.309/.487 line, but the power production was there with 33 bombs and a great 17.8 PA/HR. It seems like he made an effort to swing for more power in 2021 compared to 2020. His max exit velocity came up from 108.2 to 114.6, his fly ball rate came up from 36.7% to 42.6%, and his contact rate came down from 72.5% to 70.6%. So he gave up some batting average for power, which I think is a good trade.
Possibly the most interesting thing about Mounty was the second half he put together:
If we look at July 1st on he raised the barrel rate to 14% with a 15.1 PA/HR while slugging .508 in that time. From August 1 on he was even better with a .563 slugging and 16 homers in 204 PAs (a truly elite 12.7 PA/HR). The max velocity was quite strong as we’ve noted at 114.6, so this seems like a really legitimate power hitter without an egregious strikeout rate. Another big positive is the age, as he will be freshly 25 years old when the season begins. I am going to be quite high on Mountcastle in 2022.
Trey Mancini
For the first part of the year, Mancini looked like an elite fantasy producer. He slashed .278/.344/.515 in April and May with 11 homers, a 14% barrel rate, and a strong 20.7% K%. Those are MVP-type numbers. Then June began:
He slashed .243/.296/.387 from there on with a much worse 8.3% Brl% and a 25% K%. He will be 30 years old at the beginning of the season, and I just don’t think he’s a great bet all things considered. He doesn’t bring much floor to the table, as he won’t steal bases and there’s no reason to be confident about the power production or batting average.
Adley Rutschman
We only have minor league numbers to go off of here, but that isn’t stopping fantasy managers from investing with his current ADP inside the top 200. He slashed .312/.405/.490 in a 185 PA’s last year, missing a lot of time to injury. His 13% BB% and 18% K% are very impressive, but he didn’t hit a ton of homers (37 PA/HR). He is 23-years-old, and I don’t think it’s a lock that he starts the year with the big league team which would really hurt his draft value. That said, Steamer does have him for 392 PA right now. There’s obvious upside here, but I think it makes sense to be very careful with catcher prospects for fantasy purposes. Catchers, more than other positions, seem to have a tougher time keeping up their minor league hitting numbers as they focus more on the defensive side of the game. I’m out on Rutschman if his ADP really does stay below 200.
Austin Hays
The once-hyped Hays had his best season in 2021, but that still resulted in a line of .256/.308/.461 that leaves much to be desired. He’s a pretty decent contact hitter (77% Contact%, 20% K), but the power marks are far from great (9.1% Brl%, 110.3 max velo). That did result in a better than league average 24 PA/HR in 2021. He’s just 26 years old, so there’s room for improvement here again, but Hays’ upside seems to be lacking for right now. He really smacked left-handed pitching around with a .551 SLG, a 10% Brl%, a 15% K%, and a 78% contact%. So that’s a slight positive as well, although you don’t get to face lefties very often especially when you’re known for hitting them really well. I think he’ll be quite cheap again, which could be interesting, but all-in-all this isn’t a guy that is going to make or break or your team.
Anthony Santander
A good amount of raw power here (114.8 max velo) with a pretty good strikeout rate (23%). He doesn’t walk (5%), and doesn’t provide much for batting average (career mark of .248 which makes sense because of his super-high FB%, he’s been above 41% every year in that regard which isn’t good for batting average). He should hit a decent amount of homers but won’t give you much else. He’s not a veteran by any means, but at age 27 there also aren’t a ton more years in there for physical improvement.
Pitchers to Rank
John Means
John Means
He was one of the steals of the draft early on in 2021, pitching to a 2.28 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 71 innings prior to his injury on June 5th. He had a strong 26%-5% K-BB% ratio during that stretch also posting a very nice 14% SwStr%. After returning a month later he was nowhere near the same guy. In his final 76 innings, he posted a 4.88 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, a and a 20% K%.
I don’t think either of those guys is the real Means. His full-season numbers actually seem pretty believable (3.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 23% K%, 4% BB%), maybe with a slightly worse WHIP.
Back in 2019 he had a pretty nice season, but had just a 19% K% and a home run problem (31% GB%, 1.34 HR/9). He has brought the strikeouts up from there the last two seasons to 24% and 23%, which is a good sign. Those numbers still aren’t what you want from fantasy, but it does help that he has never walked many batters. That 1.34 HR/9 mark was actually the best of his career, as he had a huge issue in 2021 here with a 1.84 HR/9.
I think it’s reasonable to expect the strikeouts to stay around 23% with the 5% BB%, which is good enough to be more than useable in fantasy if he can get a little bit more luck in the home run department (not easy to do in the AL East in Camden Yards, mind you).
Maybe he can throw fewer fastballs to help the homer issue? But it’s not really feasible to be majority changeup and slider, which seem like his two best pitches. Anyways, Means is a solid arm that will probably not be drafted high enough. I’ll have some level of interest in deep leagues.
Where They Rank
