2022 MLB Super Forecasting Contest

Jeff Zimmerman had the great idea of creating a Superforecasting contest for the 2022 MLB season. I thought it was a great idea and decided to take the ball and run with it. Here’s a post with the explanations/rules/guidelines/etc.

What Is It

A contest to find the best predictor of the future.

How Does It Work

There is a list of 100 questions, all having yes or no answers. But instead of just saying “yes” or “no”, you put a number between 0 and 100 for each question based on how likely you think the answer is to be “yes”.

This number functions as your foreseen probability of the event happening. If you are confident that the answer to the question will be yes, you put a high number, and if you are confident that the answer will be no, you put a low number.

You get points based on your number. If the answer to the question ends up being “yes”, you add the number of you put to your overall score. If the answer is no, you subtract that number from your overall score.

Example

The first two questions on the list:

Let’s say you feel supremely confident that Mondesi will start more than 100 games. You put 90 for your probability (meaning you think there’s a 90% chance of that happening). If he goes out and starts 110 games, you get +90 points. If he fails to start 100 games, you get a -90. Your total score is the sum of all of those values.

So let’s say you put 90 for the first row and 60 for the second.

Mondesi starts 120 games, and Pete Alonso hits 55 homers.
Your score is (90 + 60) = 150.

Mondesi starts 80 games, and Pete Alonso hits 55 homers.
Your score is (-90 + 60) = -30.

Basic Rules

• Final guesses are due by the currently scheduled Opening Day, 3/31/2022, they may not be changed after the first pitch is thrown.

• Please use whole numbers as your guesses (so 5, 10, 15 rather than .05, .10, .15 etc)

Who Can Play

Anybody. No required entry fees.

If it is desired, we can set up a prize pool, but it won’t be required (although only people who pay into it are eligible to win the pot).

How To Enter

Open the Google Sheet Here

Option 1 (preferred): Get the sheet in your own Google Drive, and fill it out.

You can hit “Make a copy”, and that should automatically save it in your drive:

Or you can download it and use Excel on your PC to fill it out, and then upload it to http://sheets.google.com

Then share your file with me (Jon2Anderson@gmail.com) using the “share” button in the top right.

Alternatively, you can email me the file directly at that same email address. If you publish your file on your google drive and give me access to it, I should be able to link your guesses live to my sheet so I get the updates from your file. That way you can tweak your guesses during the lead-up to the season without having to send me a new file every time.

For any questions, you can email me or find me on Twitter @JonPGH.