2023 Catcher Preview - Tiers 1-3
I am going into some position preview posts this week and next. I have more or less already done between my team-by-team write-ups, my catcher rankings, my catcher projections, and my piece on RotoBaller ranking and tiering catchers - but this will probably still be helpful to put it all together & review all the things we’ve learned over this offseason.
I will go tier-by-tier and talk at least briefly about each name, and then give some more broad thoughts about the position at the end.
We’ll go ahead and keep this whole thing FREE FOR ALL, but if you want everything else I write on this substack, you’ll have to become a paid sub. More details on that including the full list of things you get can be found here.
Tier One
J.T. Realmuto
No matter how I slice it, the projections and my brain put Realmuto in the top tier by himself. There is always more risk with catchers given the injury risk they subject themselves to by sitting behind the plate - so for that reason, I’m less likely to pay the premium cost for the standout at the position.
The reason to like him is obvious. He went 20-20 last year with a .276 batting average. He has hit at least .265 every year sine 2015, and he has driven in 83, 73, and 84 runs in his first three [full] seasons with the Phillies.
That is very good production in steals and RBI with good production in homers and runs as well. He hasn’t hurt you anywhere really since joining the Phillies.
The downside is that he’ll be 32 this season. He also is getting a bit of helium because of the 21 steals, but prior to last year his career-best in steals was 13 (2021). I’d say it’s pretty likely he doesn’t contribute as strongly in steals this year as last year (note that he’ll probably steal closer to 21 than 13 - but with steals coming up across the room the impact could still be lower than his 13 in 2021).
The most important question is whether or not he’s worth the pick. The 5x5 Z-Score I have for him is 2.26. That is a far cry from the non-catchers he’s being drafted around (Semien at 4.31, Arenado at 4.06, etc.). We will see as we move forward that catcher is deeper this year than the past few, so you aren’t exactly going to get crushed by not getting a guy in these top couple of tiers - but yeah in terms of relative to position rankings - Realmuto is worth a top 50 pick for sure.
Tier Two
Daulton Varsho
Will Smith
Salvador Perez
This tier gets there with volume. All three of these guys will play a ton of games where they aren’t behind the plate. Varsho will almost exclusively be an outfielder, and then Smith & Perez will DH 25-35 times. Just having the extra 100 PAs is a huge deal for us in fantasy - and it doesn’t take long before the PA projections fall well below 500.
Varsho
You are certainly buying high after Varsho’s 2022 season where he hit 27 homers and steal 16 bases. He does not hit for a good batting average (projected .237 - which is right in line with what he did last year), but that’s a smaller consideration when you see the 25-15 line and all of the playing time he should get as a very good defensive outfielder.
I guess the batting average maybe should be a bigger consideration given that he’s typically the #2 catcher off of the board. I’m expecting steals to come up this year, which means another 15 steals from Varsho won’t be a huge game-breaker - and we really don’t know how the Blue Jays might use him. He could fall into a platoon situation where he doesn’t play against lefties (career 66 wRC+ against lefties), and it seems like his 27 homers may be a best-case scenario last year (6.7% Brl/PA would predict more like 23 HR). So you are potentially setting yourself up for a bad batting average, a steals count that doesn’t really set your team apart, and a middling home run count.
Still good stuff from a catcher, but is it someone you want to buy at a premium? I don’t think I do…
Smith
After the top two guys, the steals are pretty much gone. What Smith gives you is a bunch of PAs, a “fine to good” batting average, 25 homers, and then a large amount of RBI.
Smith’s SLG came down to .465 last year, but his barrel rate (10.3%) and Brl/PA (7.49%) stayed right where they were in 2021 - and his K% dropped four points to 16.7%.
By the looks of things, he was great at the plate last year with a super strong 81% Contact% to go with those solid barrel marks. Not a ton of hitters doing that at any position.
The Dodgers are a great offense, and Smith typically hits clean-up when he’s in the lineup (he starts about 80% of their games). He’s been a quite good hitter for four years now, so he’s certainly proven himself.
If I’m taking a catcher from these top two tiers, it’s probably Smith for me. I likely won’t reach high enough for Realmuto, and I like Smith second-best.
Perez
If you remember my first version of catcher rankings, I had Perez nowhere near tier two. That’s probably because I just won’t draft the guy where he goes, but I should at least acknowledge that he certainly projects like a tier-two catcher and should be drafted close to there. He’s only one year older than Realmuto (the more you know) and still put together a good power season when on the field in 2022 (23.1% K%, 11.2% Brl%, 8.07 Brl/PA). He projects for the most homers of any catcher (29 homers on average between the major projections systems, 31 from the ASS), and projects for a strong 550 PA as well.
Tier 3
Adley Rutschman
Willson Contreras
Alejandro Kirk
Adley Rutschman
The Adley’s bros are going to come after me here. He’s being drafted like a tier-two guy, and a lot of people are talking like he could be one of the best hitters in baseball sans position.
Some dude is even out here taking him in the top 30, look at this ADP spread!
Crazy stuff.
Let’s continue with two non-data-science arguments against the guy.
First, his last name is hard to spell. That’s annoying.
Second, this:
Is a workout more effective if done in the snow? I guess you could make the case for like mental toughness as well - but let’s be real, the guy just did this for the social media klout. And okay, I get it - he’s 25, he grew up in the mess of social media. I shouldn’t judge him - maybe I’d have done the same thing if I were him, but yeah I’m judging him. And he wasn’t even really doing the exercise correctly - I thought this overall made him look extremely lame.
The actual reason I won’t draft him with the threesome we just mentioned is the power profile. His 5.3% Brl/PA is the lowest of the top 10 catchers, which leads to this 17-homer projection we’re staring at. He stole four bases last year, so maybe with a full season and the new rules he can steal 10 - but that’s going to be par for the course this season.
You’ll probably get a good batting average and a good amount of R/RBI as well, but the HR and SB just come up short for me.
The advantage he has of being a social media cringe douche is that it means that he’s still young enough to add a bunch of muscle over one offseason. He could come out and hit 30 bombs, steal a dozen bags, and drive in 90 runs and then I’ll look like a big butthead - but whatever, you all can have Adley this year.
Willson Contreras
I guess in my head I think Contreras has more pop than he actually does. The Brl/PA has been south of 7% the last two seasons - which really isn’t what you see from great power hitters. He still does swing the bat really hard with a great 107.9 90th percentile exit velo (that was 19th best in the league last year), so I guess the problem with the lower HR totals has been the 51% GB%.
He has long had a GB% over 49% - in fact, he’s done that every year of his career. So the 20-25 homer range is probably right for him.
My projections have him:
520 PA, 68 R, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 7 SB, .239
That line isn’t all that much better than guys you can get later - but the advantage with Conteras is that he’s established himself a consistently good hitter (something tough to find with catchers), and the good lineup context he’s in. He will probably hit right behind Goldschmidt and Arenado - so he’s going to pile up some RBI, methinks.
The reason to like him is that he falls a lot further and more often than the guys we’ve talked about. He’s definitely in a different “ADP tier” than the names above.
That’s really all I have to say on Contreras. He probably won’t find all that many DH starts with that deep bench the Cardinals have - so that lowers him a bit here, but 20+ homers and a lot of RBI seems really likely to me, which is nice for where you get him.
Alejandro Kirk
The 90th percentile velo on Contreras was 107.9 - Kirk’s is down at 105.1. That’s a big difference, and it’s the main thing I have to say about Kirk.
He kind of exploded last year, he came very cheap in drafts and had a great season. He made a ton of contact with a tiny 11% K%, but the barrel rate was lower at 7.8%. Now the 11% K% makes the 7.8% better - and his Brl/PA was better than Rutschman at 6% - but still pretty low.
He’s a little guy, so there just isn’t a ton of swing speed here. He’s also a high GB% guy (50%, 8 degree average angle) - although that’s probably a good thing given that he doesn’t enough power to really hit a ton of homers. He’s probably better as line GB/LD hitter as compared to a LD/FB hitter - because he’ll hit for a better batting average that way, so it’s fine.
I just worry that Kirk’s price is bloated because of what he did early on last year. On June 30th, he had a 10.6% Brl% and 10 homers. From there on, he went for a 3.5% Brl% and just four more homers.
I’m more inclined to believe he’s closer to the second half than the first half, but of course the real answer is probably somewhere in between.
I just don’t buy the power, and he is not a steals guy at all - so I don’t see much difference between him and say Tyler Stephenson. That will keep me off of Kirk unless the price changes.
And I’m out of time for today. This turned more detailed than I planned when I started it - but that’s okay, I’m enjoying it and I’m sure it provides a little bit more value that way.
I’m blasting this out for your reading tonight and then we’ll finish this later before moving on to first base.
Current Ranks
Realmuto (T1)
Smith (T2)
Varsho (T2)
Perez (T2)
Rutschman (T3)
Contreras (STL) (T3)
Kirk (T3)