2023 JA ASS Pitcher Projections - The Release!
Hello subscribers! Today I bring you the 2023 Jon Anderson Aggregated Scoring System PITCHER PROJECTIONS!
These went a lot more smoothly and easily than the hitters. The nature of pitching is a little bit more prone to variance/randomness, which actually makes projections easier since there are fewer truly “skill-based” things to project out. Everything else is left to regression towards means and other easier adjustments.
It’s still a little bit in “first draft” mode. I will be making some refinements as I notice things that seem out of whack (Tyler Glasnow, for example…). The IP projections will also be changing throughout January-March as I plan to leverage what some of the other projection systems are forecasting, wisdom of the crowd style!
As a general rule, I don’t use pitcher projections nearly as much as hitter projections in drafting. If you have a really good feel for the pitching player pool, I don’t think you even really need projections - and they can be misleading a lot of times. It’s hard to accurately project ERA and IP and stuff - so sometimes just the knowledge in your head actually does trump projections if you really know what you’re doing - so keep all of that in mind.
All that said, they are ready for all paid subscribers and the links are below the paywall. Note that there’s now a new link to the Tableau Dashboard, as I made a new one with both hitters and pitchers together. Delete your old bookmark and replace it with the new one. On that dashboard, I’ve included tabs where I used the projections to sum up the Underdog Best Ball projection based on their scoring system. I’ve been paying some MLB Best Ball there and it’s a lot of fun - and having a good projection system could certainly give us an edge there.
I still am planning to record a video that goes through how I did each model, I just haven’t had any time to myself during these six weeks of paternity leave from my real job. That is coming - and a lot of other good stuff as well as roll toward the season!