2023 JA ASS Projections - The Release!

Hello paid subs! Merry Christmas, Happy New Year! I have a holiday gift for you all today, I am releasing the Jon Anderson Aggregated Scoring System 2023 MLB Hitter Projections!

It has long been a dream of mine to develop a respected MLB projection system and name it something that can be shortened to “ASS”, so this is a really emotional day for me.

I want to get into the technical details at some point; that might be best done on a YouTube stream or a podcast or something. But long story short, for each hitter in the league I look back at recent years and use that data to project them in all of the base skill categories

• K%

• BB%

• Contact%

• Brl%

• etc

And then I use those skill marks along with environment variables (home park, lineup, and more) to get the stat projections that the people are interested in.

The trouble spots are the players with a limited data sample. I do use minor league data in this, so we’re able to find some things out about these rookies and second-year players, but it’s not going to be perfect since a lot changes once you hit the Majors and we only have a little bit of minor league statcast data to use.

I’ll be using these projections to write a bunch of stuff on RotoBaller over the next couple of months, and the projections will be changing week to week. The process right now is that if I find a projection that doesn’t make a ton of sense, I go into the code and see what happened and then improve things if I can find something that could be improved. Free agent signings also impact the projections since that changes a lineup’s overall production projection.

The other problem is playing time. It’s really hard to project PAs, and that’s especially true when the calendar says December. I haven’t gone through one-by-one to refine that, but eventually, I’ll do something similar to that - and I will be comparing and averaging these projections out when other projection systems come online.

If you say anything funky in here, please let me know. I’m definitely not close to calling these my “final projections” - we’ll be tweaking and changing stuff up until March and then we’ll lock them down so we can see how accurate we were at the end of the year.

Okay here you go, the links to the projections are below the paywall. If your Google Sheet access doesn’t work, just request it and I’ll grant it - I’m using emails you all signed up with here so it might not be your google account.

In addition to that, I’ve put them all in a Tableau Dashboard - which is a much better user experience. Enjoy!