2024 Breakout Hitter Watch
I check into a handful of surprising early-season hitter performances and how to view each player from a fantasy baseball perspective.
I have done mostly pitcher talk so far on these pages. That is because the first month of the season is much more telling from a pitching perspective than a hitting one. One month of games is random for anybody, but at the per-game level, we get a lot more useful information from the pitchers.
But now we can start looking into some hitters that are surprising us and try to spot some waiver wire bats to add that could boost your offense for the rest of the season.
No better way to show what I’m doing other than to just start doing it. So let’s get it going.
Josh Rojas, Seattle Mariners
We like playing time, we like steals, we like home runs, and we like guys at the top of the lineup. When comparing Rojas’ 2024 season to his recent career:
K%: 20.9% → 15.4%
Brl%: 4.2% → 7.7%
Cont%: 76.9% → 80.3%
Avg EV: 86.4 mph → 87.7 mph
Avg LA: 11 degrees → 13.2 degrees
GB%: 43% → 37%
That is positive movement on all fronts.
He has led off in each of his last eight starts, and that’s eight of the Mariners last 12 starts. Unfortunately, he has yet to start a game against a lefty, and being in a platoon (even the strong side of one) can be disqualifying in a lot of league types - so keep that in mind. For his career, he’s a 91 wRC+ against lefties and a 100 against righties. So he hasn’t been better than league-average even against righties, but he also hasn’t been the worst hitter in the world against lefties either.
So, if you’re a daily lineups league where you can start him against righties and replace him when there’s a lefty on the schedule, I would advise that in all 12-team leagues or deeper.
Oh, and just in case you’re really into those Baseball Savant player pages.
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
I did not see this coming from Cronenworth at the age of 30, so it’s possible it’s a total mirage and he’ll go back to his former self. But I can’t ignore it for now.
2021-2023 → 2024 Stats
K%: 19% → 16%
Brl%: 5% → 11%
EV: 86.5mph → 89.4mph
Swing%: 44% → 47%
He’s striking out less while hitting the ball with way more authority. That has turned into this:
Cronenworth PA/HR by Year
2021: 638 PA, 21 HR, 30.1 PA/HR
2022: 681 PA, 17 HR, 39.6 PA/HR
2023: 520 PA, 10 HR, 51.4 PA/HR
2024: 154 PA, 6 HR, 25.3 PA/HR
Full year-by-year stats:
Only 14 hitters this so far this year have a Brl% above 10% and a K% below 20%, Cronenworth being one of them at 11.4% and 15.9%.
We have a good bit of data now, but it’s not too early for us to just be getting duped by an extended “hot” stretch, but Cronenworth has always had bat skills and it’s getting hard to deny that he’ll put up his second career 20+ homer season here with a strong batting average and a good supply of counting stats in the heart of the Padres lineup.
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs
This guy has never not hit plenty of tanks. Here are his stats by year since the world reset in 2020, all levels included.
That’s a PA/HR below 26 every year of his career, with an overall career mark now of 19.7 (and 19.8 in the Majors - so he hasn’t even slowed up in that stat when facing the best pitching).
The difference this year is quite clear, and I hope you caught it above. The K% is down to 20.5% and the BB% is up to 12.3%.
Comparing this season to his previous MLB marks:
His Contact% has improved from 62.2% to 71.5%
His Swing% has dropped from 50% to 47%
His Chase% has dropped from 29% to 26%
A player making huge gains in K% and Contact% like this is usually the result of a slowed-down swing. Meaning it’s a conscious decision that the player will just take it easy and control the swing a bit more to put more balls in play.
That’s been true a bit with Morel:
2023 Brl/PA: 9.4%
2024 Brl/PA: 7.1%
But 7.1% is still well above the league average of 5.4% and ranks him in the top 30 league-wide.
One more time for the savant slider bros:
Really impressive profile so far this year. Given the 31st-percentile whiff%, we will probably see that K% come up a few more points, but it would seem to me pretty unlikely he returns the whole way to 30%+ like we’ve seen in the past.
And even if the K% does get into the upper-twenties, the power is good enough to justify him still in fantasy, and he’s also stealing bags again this year as we saw in that first screenshot as the attempt rate has come up four points from last year.
You have 3B and OF eligibility from Morel, and the sky is the limit with him given the power and speed combo. He should be owned in all leagues, and right now he’s at just 58% ownership on ESPN. Crazy.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
I doubt Greene has fallen through the cracks in many leagues of the people reading this blog, but just in case.
Greene has arrived this year. Only four players have more than his nine homers, and he’s been absolutely crushing ever since the first 10 or so days of the season after a slow start:
Season: .266/.391/.548, 25.8% K%, 16.6% BB%, 9 HR
April 4/4: .294/.418/.587, 25.4% K%, 17.2% BB%, 8 HR
His 11.3% Brl/PA is sixth-best in the league and his 19.8% Brl% is second-best. That plus the manageable 26% K% (72% Contact backs that up) means Greene is almost certainly a top-20 power hitter in the league, and obviously that should be owned in all fantasy leagues everywhere.
Let’s look at his launch angle histograms from the last two years and try out best to set them up in a comparable fashion.
What you have here is the total number of balls in play hit in each angle range. You can see that in 2023, his highest bars were between 0 and 15 degrees. That put his average launch angle in 2023 at 6.6 degrees and his median at 8.0.
Looking at 2024, you can see the bar towering above the rest is centered right on 20 degrees - right where you want it. This year Green’s average launch angle is 9.5 degrees and the median is up to 13.5. Big improvements on that regard, and this was something he himself said he wanted to change coming into this season.
So shout out to Riley for setting a goal and accomplishing it.
The downside for fantasy is that the steals won’t be there (stole five total in 2022 and seven total in 2023), and he’s unlikely to ever be a high-batting average player with the higher K% and the fly balls, but he’s not going to be a crater in any category and the power alone makes him a fantastic fantasy player.
Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
He’s been a solid hitter in the league for several years now, which might make you surprised to find out he’s still just 26 years old. He debuted in 2019 and currently sports a career 113 wRC+.
This year though, he’s taking things to a new level. He’s at a 151 wRC+ this year with those eight homers and .275/.3360/.533 slash line.
I’ve long highlighted Naylor’s unique ability to barrel the ball while managing a really low K%. This year he’s at a good but short of elite 10.5% Brl%, but that is boosted by the fact that he so rarely strikes out at just 12%. So he’s putting a ball in play in nearly 80% of his plate appearances, which turns into a lot of fantasy goodness even on a more middle-of-the-road Cleveland offense.
The problem is that he’s darn near universally owned, so he’s not someone you can go pick up. He’ll also be tough to trade for given the hot start to the year, but it does seem like he could be raising his game up a level here in his age-26 season.
Luis Garcia, Washington Nationals
This is at least the third straight year I’ve written up Garcia in May as a breakout hitter, BUT SERIOUSLY THIS TIME.
Ever since arriving in the Majors in 2020 (he’s been up-and-down since then), he’s limited the strikeout while hitting a bunch of balls hard. That has gotten us excited before only for him to manage a career-best nine homers (2023) and .704 OPS (2022).
Are things different this year? So far, yes they are:
Brl% by Year
2020: 4.8%
2021: 5.2%
2022: 7.5%
2023: 5.8%
2024: 11.5%
Those barrels have come as a result of a career bests in all of these categories:
Launch Angle: 6.9 degrees (previous best = 5.5)
Launch Velo: 90.8 mph (previous best = 88.3)
Hard-Hit%: 52.6% (previous best = 36.7%)
It’s still not the greatest overall placement on LA vs. EV:
But there’s been clear improvement here, and this is another guy whose age might surprise you. He debuted at 20 and he currently is 23 years old (he’ll turn 24 next week).
It shouldn’t surprise us at all to see hitters in the low-twenties changing. That’s not always for the better, but most of the time it is and with Garcia - the early signs are very good. Add to that his very high 21% stolen base attempt rate and six steals so far, and you have a pretty solid roto contributor even if the power doesn’t explode.
There you have it, six hitters showing signs of a breakout 2024 season here early on. Things can change in a hurry with this little of a data sample, but we’re at the stage where there’s plenty of signal there as well. Hope you enjoyed the piece!