2024 Team Review - Milwaukee Brewers
A look at the biggest standout players from the 2024 division-winning Milwaukee Brewers, and some speculation about what they'll be looking to do this offseason.
Over the next couple of months, I’ll write one of these articles for all 30 teams. They won’t be as extensive as the ones I have written the last two years. Instead, I’ll do two waves. First, I’ll briefly review the standouts from each team’s 2024 season - and give some thoughts on what they are likely to do this offseason. Second, at some point in January, after I have my first version of the 2025 season projections, I’ll go team by team again, look at the projections, and start filling out my 2025 player ranks.
There will be podcasts at some point. I haven’t decided on that yet, but most likely, I’ll wait until February or so to get that ramped up.
Let’s get it going.
The Brewers won the division again, and that was never in doubt. They got there primarily with offense, but they squeezed enough out of the rotation and bullpen to put together a nice season, although it ended in heartbreaking fashion at home.
2025 Unrestricted Free Agents of Note:
Willy Adames
Joe Ross
I will try my best to be economical with my words. There is not a ton of use in me telling you that William Contreras had a big year on offense. He exceeded 650 plate appearances, which is an absolute ton for a catcher, and hit 23 homers with a very strong .282/.367./.467 line. Even if he couldn’t catch, he’d be the everyday DH. He’ll be at the top of the catcher ranks again next year, and rightfully so.
See what I did there? I told you there wasn’t much use in telling you something, and then I told you something. For consistency's sake, let’s focus on each team’s breakouts and busts and then talk briefly about what they should be focusing on this offseason.
Breakouts
Brice Turang had an awesome first half, posting a strong wOBA in the first three months. That went away in the second half, but he still finished the year with 50 steals.
He’s effectively a one-category guy, but the steals impact as an undrafted player puts him in this category.
Jackson Chourio does not exactly qualify as a breakout. Maybe more of a “break-in”. It wasn’t a shock that he performed very well given the pedigree. There was an adjustment period in April and May. From June on:
He was one of the most valuable fantasy bats in the league after figuring it out. That’s a 25-23ish pace with a .300 batting average - and that’s from a 20-year-old. I think there’s a ton of room for growth in power, and it’s huge that he had no trouble keeping the strikeout rate down below 20%. Chourio is a near first-round pick next year and a top-five player in dynasty leagues.
Willy Adames showed up big in a contract year, blasting 32 homers and swiping 21 bags on a .251 batting average. Those are excellent numbers from a guy that also plays a good shortstop. At age 29, I assume he’ll land a big contract somewhere (but probably not Milwaukee).
There is still some scary bust potential next year. We saw Adames hit 31 homers in 2022 after getting out of Tampa Bay, but between that season and this most recent one, there was a pretty mediocre 2023 season where he slugged just .409.
Whoever is investing in Adames for 2025 (the real-life franchise or fantasy owners) is going to be buying high on him. That’s not something I’d like to do myself, but it was a huge bounce-back season for Willy, and he was instrumental in getting this team as far as they got.
You could almost call it a breakout season for Garrett Mitchell. He missed a lot of time due to injury but hit eight homers in his 224 PAs. There is a lot of swing and miss in his game (32% K%), but his swing is conducive to power when he’s getting to the ball.
With Adames likely departing and with the continued health struggles for Christian Yelich, the Brewers could find themselves relying on Mitchell to drive in runs next year. He’s only 26, so there’s room for improvement, but it’s an uphill battle for him to truly become a reliable bat in the league with his 65% contact rate.
Joey Ortiz got his first full go as a Major Leaguer after being traded to Milwaukee in the Corbin Burnes deal. He was looking like a stud hitter early on but did not do much down the stretch.
Another way to look at it:
At age 26, there’s still room for growth with Ortiz, and this was certainly a valuable year of experience.
The good in the profile is the strikeout rate (20%), the walk rate (11%), and the fact that he does have the exit velocity to develop power with (104.6 90th-percentile EV is good enough). The launch angle profile stuff was on the low side, but it’s nothing horrifying:
GB%: 49%
LD%: 21%
FB%: 21%
Given that he has enough swing speed, we could see a bit of a power breakout next year if he can just push those red bars 5-10 degrees upward.
I think Ortiz is a very solid real-life player and will be a part of this Brewers lineup for years to come. He’s less interesting for fantasy purposes since he’s more just “fine” across the board. He’s not going to steal many bags, and while possible, the 25-homer season is unlikely to happen next year.
The biggest breakout on the pitching side was Tobias Myers. He got his first shot in the Majors after spending a long time in the minors (he turned 26 in August), and was huge for his team this year.
Putting up a 3.00 ERA across 25 starts is not an easy thing to do. The 16% K-BB% is strong, so I have no problem believing that he’s a legitimate Major League starter next year.
The reason I’m going to have trouble clicking on him in drafts next year is the lower 10.5% SwStr% and mediocre 47.3% Strike%. He was able to get it done even with those low numbers, and that probably has a lot to do with the command (101.5 Location+) and the depth of the pitch mix (five total pitches, four above a 10% usage, and a nice four-seam + cutter combination).
I don’t want to put any chips on him, but he’s earned a guaranteed spot in the Brewers rotation next year.
Busts
It’s harsh to call Freddy Peralta a bust. He made 32 starts with a 3.68 ERA. That’s a very useful season, but he was far from the ace that we thought he was.
Maybe my expectations were out of whack. It had been since 2021 since he had posted a really strong ERA. The walk rate has never been great, and he had issues with the long ball in 2023 that continued into 2024.
What we see in that graphic above is a 1.4-point loss in SwStr% - and that’s not what you want to see for a guy that doesn’t have the best command (39.1% Ball%, 98 Location+). He’s still just 28, so we aren’t looking at a guy on the descent age-wise, but overall, I would call it a step in the wrong direction.
Rhys Hoskins gave the Brewers 26 homers, and that’s probably about what they were hoping for. But when he wasn’t homering, he was hurting the team with just a .212 average and a .301 OBP. Everything in his profile looks pretty similar to where he was before the missed 2023 season, besides the strikeout rate, which reached 29%. He was around 25-26% prior, and those four points cost him big in 2024.
Tyler Black was a guy we thought might have an MLB impact this year. He has a very impressive minor league resume but fell flat with the MLB opportunity Milwaukee gave him. He slashed just .204/.316/.245 in 57 PAs with a high 30% K%. His upside is with his on-base ability (12% BB% in the Majors this year, 13% in AAA) and speed. He will need to find a way to make a lot more contact against Major League pitching if he wants to find and keep a job - but at the age of 24, he’ll get a couple more chances at least.
Minor League Report
Brewer Hicklen hit 22 homers in the minors with a .833 OPS. That earned him some time in the Majors, but there wasn’t much of a spot for him as their lineup was solidified. His 28% K% is concerning, but the 22 homers, along with the 44 steals, would make him somewhat interesting for fantasy purposes if he does find a job next year. He is 28 years old already, however, so we probably won’t hear much from him in the future.
Top prospect Jeferson Quero (a catcher) missed the whole season, undergoing shoulder surgery in April. He will have trouble finding a job next year with William Contreras present, but it’s possible he will eventually push Contreras to a DH or 1B role. Query hit .260/.340/.439 in 2023 with 16 homers and five steals.
At the beginning of this year, I was predicting that Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski would play a big part in the latter part of the year, providing much-needed fortifications in the rotation. Gasser did get to the Majors in May but had Tommy John surgery in June, so he’s out of the picture until late next year. As for Misiorowski, he was moved to a relief role halfway through the year. From what I’m reading, that was just to put him on the path to refine some things and move closer to the Majors. He should start next year as a rotation option, but the command is definitely a question mark with him (14% BB% this year). The fastball velo is there, so he’s someone to watch early on next year.
Logan Henderson is their #3 pitching prospect right now. He threw just 53 innings in 2024 but did post an elite 33.5% K%, 4.4% BB%, and a sick 0.89 WHIP. He could very well be in the discussion early on next year, depending on what the Brewers do rotation-wise this offseason.
Offseason Preview
I’m not the best surveyor of MLB roster needs, but this one is pretty clear. The days of the Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta big three are long gone now. Depending on what Peralta chooses to do, they could be completely in the rearview mirror. They have a lot of work to do to put together a competitive rotation for 2025. Tobias Myers seems to be the only guy you can lock in at this point.
Devin Williams wasn’t mentioned here. He has a $10.5 million club option, and I imagine the Brewers pick that up. The same is true for Freddy Peralta with his $8 million club option - that seems like a no-brainer for the Brewers to grab. So I think both guys return.
If they can make a big splash or two, they’ll be the easy favorite for another division crown, but there’s a lot of work to do first. Their 2025 fate will also largely depend on the health of Christian Yelich. He elected the back surgery a few months back. That was very bad news for 2024, but it probably sets him up with a better chance at a close-to-full 2025 season. He was swinging the bat so well while healthy this year (.901 OPS, .376 xwOBA), so it would be massive for the Brewers to get some good luck on the health front there.
The roster is going to look a lot different by the time we get to March. There are a lot of big names here headed out and a gaping organizational hole on the pitching side. The Brewers should be active this offseason.
Free agent signing predictions
Wade Miley
Funny! I hadn't either. I just happened to see him winning pitcher of year. Thanks for your input. Good stuff as always!
Do you know anything about Chad Patrick, pitcher of year? Is his numbers legit?