2024 Team Review - Pittsburgh Pirates
A look at the biggest standout players from the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates, and some speculation about what they'll be looking to do this offseason.
To read the reviews for other teams, check out the glossary page here.
This is the team I know best. I grew up in Pittsburgh and have spent way too many hours of my life watching and writing about this baseball team. 2024 was one of the more exciting seasons of my life, with the team being in the playoff race until August and having some very exciting pitching developments, but it was still another last-place finish when things wrapped up.
There are big issues here, and there probably always will be. But there is a core of players now that is better than most of the years in my memory.
Free Agents
Aroldis Chapman
Andrew McCutchen
Yasmani Grandal
Edward Olivares
Chapman earned himself another sizeable contract with a 3.79 ERA and a 37% K% in 61.2 innings. I would not imagine the Pirates even making an offer. It’s almost a sure thing that they’ll sign McCutchen back to another one-year deal and then see him retire in the Pirates uniform after next season. So, Chapman is the only significant loss to free agency.
Breakouts
The story of the season for the Pirates was Paul Skenes.
23 GS, 133 IP, 11 W, 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 33.1% K%, 6.2% BB%
There is no way to criticize the man. He posted a 14.3% SwStr%, a 51.7% Strike%, a .193 xBA, and a .249 xwOBA. The four-seamers plus sinker/splitter combination is deadly, and he had three pitches earn a Strike% above 50%.
It’s pretty simple with the guy. There was no adjustment period needed, he just came up and did what he had been doing - and that proved to be enough to be a dominant pitcher at the highest level. If you add on his AAA sample from the beginning of the year, you have a guy who made 30 starts and threw 160 innings. That should mean he’s ready to stretch out to 180 innings next year, and that’s effectively a full season at this point. There are no hesitations on Skenes for the future - he’s a top fantasy pick.
The name that was making headlines before the Skenes promotion was Jared Jones. He was looking like an All-Star pitcher early on. He posted a 3.55 ERA with an elite 23% K-BB% in his first 11 starts, and his 18.7% SwStr% was one of the highest marks you’ll ever see from a starting pitcher.
He was able to do that because he was pairing his great stuff (126 Stuff+) with elite command (103 Location+). He had never had that kind of command before, so it shouldn’t have been a big surprise that he fell off pretty hard after that opening stretch. There was an injury that cost him almost two months, and he wasn’t all that great on the mound after his first ten starts.
First 10: 3.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 29.4% K%, 4.3% BB%, 1.5 HR/9
Last 12: 5.17 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 23.4% K%, 10.6% BB%, 1.2 HR/9
That’s a striking split, and it leaves us unclear on what to expect from Jones next year. I think he’ll be able to get the walk rate under control next year. It’s possible some of that loss in command was due to exertion and, eventually, the injury, but it’s also true that he was never a great command pitcher in the minors. I think he’ll land between those two splits next year, but the upside with the guy is massive. The stuff is not in question. His four-seamer and slider are both nasty. If he can take a step forward next year with the command and maybe even improve the curveball and changeup to where he can throw them a bit more often (9% usage on the curveball, 5% on the changeup last year), he could end up being one of the better pitchers in the league.
Jones is just 23 years old and did pile up 133 innings in 2024. That sets him up for a chance at a full season next year, and the ceiling is very high. It’s hard for me not to be biased on the guy, but I’d like to be on the buy side next year.
Luis Ortiz was another pleasant surprise for the Pirates. He entered the rotation after injuries hit and gave the Pirates much-needed solid innings.
14 GS, 130.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 19.4% K%, 7.5% BB%, 1.03 HR/9
His stuff is pretty good (104 Stuff+), and he does fine with the walks and homers. The reason for doubt is that none of his pitches were consistently great.
The slider is good, but it’s not so good that he can get by using that as his main pitch in a starter role. The four-seamer has enough velo, but it just doesn’t fool hitters very often with that 10.1% SwStr% and 48% Strike%. After that, he has a pretty crappy trio of the sinker, cutter, and rarely-thrown changeup.
I’m never going to be buying in on a guy with a sub-20% K%, and that’s what we have here. But Ortiz has been tinkering with his pitch mix, and he’ll be just 26 at the beginning of next year. I think there’s some upside, but I wouldn’t expect that we write much about Luis Ortiz’s fantasy value next year.
I can only find one breakout hitter, and that was Joey Bart. The Pirates traded for him in early April after needing a backup catcher. He went on to be one of the team’s best hitters:
274 PA, .264/.336/.467, 13 HR, 25.5% K%, 7.7% BB%
He had not hit enough to get himself much Major League experience prior to this, but it was clearly a breakout season for the right-handed backstop:
Bart has always had pop in his profile. He homered 17 times in 574 PAs in the minors (34 PA/HR) from 2021 on, and he showed a decent 10.1% Brl% in his time with the Giants in 2022. He kept the strikeouts in the mid-twenties and posted a 9.4% Brl% with Pittsburgh this year and brought his xwOBA to a very competitive .333. All of that, plus the struggles of Henry Davis and Yasmani Grandal, made Bart the Pirates’ primary catcher for the second half of the season, and he figures to be the favorite for that job at the beginning of 2025 as well.
He’s not a top-twelve catcher for fantasy, but he will be a legitimate option in two-catcher leagues.
Busts
People were once more tricked by Ke’Bryan Hayes. He had himself a nice second half in 2023 and then followed that up with a very good 2024 spring. That got him drafted in almost all leagues, and then he laid the biggest turd of his career.
388 PA, .230/.281/.289, 4 HR, 11 SB
He will be 28 at the beginning of next year, so I think we can drop the “upside” tag on him. He’s not worth a spot in standard fantasy leagues, but he will still play enough to matter in leagues of great depth.
Henry Davis was the other guy that was getting big buzz in 2024 fantasy drafts. He debuted in 2023 and struggled but was hitting homers in bunches in the spring. He earned himself the Opening Day catcher job and then worked with Hayes on that aforementioned turd pile:
121 PA, .144/.242/.212, 37% K%, 10.7% BB%, 1 HR
There is nothing good to talk about in the profile. The only thing we can say is that he still has just about a half season’s worth of MLB playing time, so maybe he’ll develop with some more opportunity.
We aren’t drafting him in 2025. It seems to be an uphill battle for him to even begin the season in the Pirates’ lineup, but we’ll see what they choose to do.
I don’t want to talk too much about relievers, but David Bednar clearly qualifies as a bust. After posting a 23% K-BB% and a 2.27 ERA in 119 innings from 2021-2023, he flamed out majorly with an 11.4% K-BB% and 5.62 ERA in 2024. Assuming that Chapman walks, the closer job is still probably Bednar’s at the beginning of next season - but it won’t take long for him to lose it if he doesn’t majorly bounce back.
The Pirates were buyers at the deadline, and they bought the wrong things. Bryan De La Cruz was the power-hitting outfielder they needed, but then proved to be anything but that:
with MIA: .245/.287/.417, 18 HR, 25 PA/HR, 26% K%
with PIT: .200/.220/.294, 3 HR, 56 PA/HR, 31% K%
There was clearly some bad variance in there. BDLC has been in the league for a while now and has proven himself to be a league-average bat. Since 2021, he’s a .252/.296/.407 hitter. That’s a .703 OPS with about a 21-homer pace. He’ll be 28 next season, so I think the fair expectation is for him to be a league-average hitter once again next year, and that will be nice for Pittsburgh after seeing him weigh down their lineup for two months in 2024. He’s not a standard fantasy league bat, but he is a decent buy-low option in deep five-outfielder leagues.
Others
Oneil Cruz
Bryan Reynolds
Mitch Keller
This format lends itself to me getting to the best fantasy options a team has to offer at the very end of the post. Oneil Cruz will be the first Pirates’ hitter drafted next year after his solid (but not fantastic) 2024 campaign:
.259/.324/.451, 21 HR, 22 SB, 30.3% K%, 8.6% BB%
We weren’t sure what we were going to get from Cruz after he missed all but a handful of games in 2023, but he ended up being about exactly what he was projected to be. The good news was that he stayed healthy and dropped his K% by almost five points from where he was in 2022. He also walked at a bit higher rate and reached a 20-20 season. The bad news was that his home run rate came down from 2023 as he continued to hit too many balls on the ground (48%). A GB% above 45% with a K% around 30% limits your homer upside. I think Cruz will always be a high strikeout rate hitter, but I do think he can eventually shake the ground ball issue and allow his raw power to generate a 30-homer season. 30-30 is well within the range of outcomes next year.
Bryan Reynolds had another solid season. He’s been extremely consistent in the Majors.
689 PA, .275/.341/.447, 24 HR, 10 SB, 22.7% K%, 8.3% BB%
He did the bulk of his damage in the middle of the season with a 1.019 OPS in June and a .953 follow-up performance in July.
2025 will be the age-30 season for B-Rey. We could see the downtrend begin soon, but overall, Reynolds is a very solid fantasy option who should once again go well within the top 100 picks next season.
Mitch Keller is the third horse in the rotation. He had a breakout season in 2023, and followed that up with another useful but unspectacular 2024 season.
2023: 32 GS, 194 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 25.5% K%, 6.7% BB%
2024: 31 GS, 178 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 21.5% K%, 6.5% BB%
The strikeout rate came way down here, under 22%, while the BB% maintained at the strong 6.5%. It’s just not good enough for me. Keller is a decent real-life pitcher but is more of a drain on fantasy teams than a benefit.
Minor Leagues
What we saw in the Majors (strong starting pitcher, weak offense) is what we see in the minors as well for Pittsburgh. They have even more exciting pitching prospects on their way:
Bubba Chandler: 120 IP, 30.9% K%, 8.6% BB%, 3.08 ERA
Braxton Ashcraft: 73 IP, 25.8% K%, 4.0% BB%, 2.84 ERA
Thomas Harrington: 117 IP, 25.1% K%, 4.1% BB%, 2.61 ERA
Hunter Barco: 66 IP, 31.2% K%, 8.3% BB%, 3.00 ERA
Chandler separates himself here. He’s now the #15 prospect in baseball and reached AAA in late 2024. That means he’ll likely be joining the big league rotation in May of 2025, assuming he stays healthy.
With any luck on the healthy front, the Pirates should easily have a better-than-average pitching rotation in 2025. With breakouts from Jared Jones and Chandler, they could have one of the best in the league.
There’s only hitter that gives any real hope to Pirates fans, and that’s Termarr Johnson. And even in that case, he had a pretty disappointing 2024 season with a .752 OPS and 15 homers in 544 PAs.
Offseason Preview
The need is very clear here. The Pirates rotation has them in a spot to potentially compete in this weak division in 2025, but that won’t happen without major upgrades to the lineup. The question is - will they be willing to spend what’s needed to make it happen? It seems unlikely, but at least they know what they need - an impact bat. As things currently stand, the holes at first base, second base, and shortstop. Some options I could see being in play:
I would call these overly optimistic:
Anthony Santander
Willy Adames
Christian Walker
Gleyber Torres
All four of those guys will have multiple suitors, and the Pirates are not a team to bet on in a bidding war. So, the more reasonable names I see:
Michael Conforto
Max Kepler
Paul DeJong
Perhaps the better path forward would be for the Pirates to add on via trade. You can never have enough pitching depth, but a pitcher-for-hitter trade still makes a lot of sense. Maybe a Luis Ortiz or a prospect package to bring in a moderately good hitter with multiple years of control, something like that - that would please me greatly.
There is your Pirates review! We’ll move on to the American League West next time!