2025 Team Previews - Boston Red Sox
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the Boston Red Sox ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
We are now getting into the “good team” territory. The Red Sox had a disappointing 2024 season but have been adding on this offseason. They look like a competitive team to me, especially with the rest of the division probably getting worse this offseason.
I am a little worried that the Sox will make another big acquisition or two that won’t be covered in this post, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. The big move early on this winter was the trade for Garrett Crochet. He goes right to the top of their rotation. They also got a pretty nice deal on Walker Buehler and bought some bullpen help with Aroldis Chapman.
You’d have to say that baseball is a little bit better when the Red Sox are in the conversation. They’re a storied franchise, and they have that really old ballpark. I have a love-hate relationship with old stuff. I’m very much into tradition and the need to preserve the wisdom of the past. I think our culture today is way too full of ourselves; we think we know better than all of those old dead people. We have certainly learned a lot about the world in the last 100 years with technology, but in a lot of other ways, I think we have gotten a lot dumber and a lot more disconnected from reality. That’s a subject for another time and another newsletter, but my point is that I want to like Fenway Park. But I went there once, and I kind of hated it. Same with Wrigley. I had really awful seats at both places, and I feel like it’s not possible to have such a bad seat at the new ballparks.
I’ve been spoiled by PNC Park, I guess. No matter where you sit there, you can see the game just fine. I sat in a deep center field in Fenway and needed binoculars to see home plate. In Wrigley, I was tucked way back in the first level, so the overhang blocked a ton of the view.
Anyway, who cares? Let’s get to the Red Sox preview.
Roster
The lineup looks the same as last year, but there are two prospects likely to make an impact this year. I don’t expect the lineup to look the same come June, but for now, it’s basically what we had last year:
It’s not a bad starting point.
As I mentioned, the rotation looks different now with the Crochet & Buehler additions:
There’s a lot of depth. They have guys like Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock, and Patrick Sandoval here, all recovering from injury. All three of those names will factor in at some point in 2025.
Hitters
Rafael Devers
Age: 28
Pos: 3B
I was surprised to see Devers still at just 28 years old. He’s been mashing big-league pitching for eight years now.
He’s been one of the most consistent fantasy bats in recent years. He has never given you more than a handful of steals, but it’s been 25+ homers and strong counting stat production every time.
He’s very good, and he’s pretty darn easy to project. The Red Sox seem to be in “buy” mode, so I think their lineup should shape up a bit better in 2025 than in 2024.
The way we view Devers should be a bit dependent on the top of the 3B position. We’ll certainly get into a bunch of detailed position previews come February, but let’s take a quick peek right now.
There are currently ten going inside the top 150.
I see a clear top four this year, and I imagine my list looks like this when we get to it:
Jose Ramirez (T1)
Rafael Devers (T1)
Austin Riley (T2)
Jazz Chisholm (T2)
If you are the last team in your league to pick a third baseman, you’re going to have a pretty flawed player there. You would be looking at a Jordan Westburg, Alex Bregman (which could be rough outside of Houston), Matt Chapman, and Jake Burger. All of those guys (sans Bregman) have posted some pretty poor fantasy seasons in recent years.
I’ll probably be looking to be in the top three tiers at 3B. Ramirez and Devers surely provide the safest bets at elite production.
I do really like to draft for security in the first several rounds. I want my first three or four hitter selections to be guys I can just set and forget and let those great stats pile up. I’ll take on some risk for the possible reward in the later rounds. So I’m very much in on Devers this year, and he is a guy you can even sometimes get at the beginning of the third round.
Rank
He’s right there with Vladdy and Seager for now, but we have a ton more players to rank.
Projection
669 PA, 98 R, 30 HR, 88 RBI, 6 SB, .264/.356/.491, $13.76 roto value
Jarren Duran
Age: 28
Pos: OF
Duran was a popular breakout pick in 2024, and boy, did he ever do what was predicted.
735 PA, .286/.343/.495, 21 HR, 111 R, 75 RBI, 34 SB
He was one of the most valuable players in the fantasy game, especially given his mid-round ADP.
We knew that he could get on base and steal a bunch of bags. The reason we predicted the breakout was the raw power he displayed in 2023 and the fact that he was clearly going to get a shot as the Red Sox lead-off man.
Duran posted a 104.2 90th-percentile EV in 2023, and he dropped his K% from 28% to 25%. He made another step forward in both of those marks last year, going to a 105.3 EV90 and a 21.8% K%.
He was able to post his second straight OBP above .340, and he piled on 13 more homers to the career-high he set in 2023. He was awesome, and he sets up to be a very good fantasy player again in 2025.
It’s hard not to love a guy like this. Even if he gives back some of the power gains he made, he’ll still be valuable with the runs and steals. It would take a lot for him to be moved down in the lineup, and hitting ahead of Devers and guys like Casas, Abreu, and some of this young talent should turn into another 100+ run season if he stays healthy.
There’s a little bit of a splits thing here. He hit just four homers off of lefties and posted a .314 xwOBA. But I don’t think that’s anywhere near poor enough to get him benched many times against lefties.
The question will be about the cost. There’s no longer any discount on Duran. He’s #22 in ADP at this current moment, making him an OF1 in the fantasy game. That’s fine with me, but I won’t be calling him a “My Guy” this year again.
Rank
Projection
688 PA, 102 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 31 SB, .271/.331/.457, $15.15 roto value
Triston Casas
Age: 25
Pos: 1B
Casas missed most of the 2024 season with a brutal rib injury. He was looking like one of the game’s better power hitters in 2023, especially in that second half when he really took off. Let’s go back to that season:
502 PA, .263/.367/.490, 24 HR, .373 xwOBA, 25% K%, 14% BB%, 12.9% Brl%
Very impressive stuff, and that was after struggling a bit early on. Things got worse pretty much across the board last year:
243 PA, .241/.337/.462, 13 HR, .333 xwOBA, 32% K%, 12% BB%, 13.3% Brl%
The Brl% was up, but not really because he was striking out so much. I’m chalking most of this up to the injury. The guy claimed that he couldn’t swing a bat without pain, even upon returning to the Majors. There’s no way that doesn’t hurt your performance, so I’d expect him to get back to the heights of 2023 again.
Casas is better in OBP leagues. He has a career (all levels) walk rate of 14.5%. He is very patient (44.5% Swing%, 23% Chase%). That could turn into a sustained 25-27% K%, but the raw power is more than enough to make up for it.
I really like Casas in any league type, and I think we’ll get a pretty nice discount this year after the mostly lost 2024 season. Sign me up, especially in leagues that credit walks.
Rank
Projection
631 PA, 82 R, 31 HR, 89 RBI, 0 SB, .255/.358/.490, $8.82 roto value
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