2025 Team Previews - Minnesota Twins
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the Minnesota Twins ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
I depend on random inspiration for these intros. I will usually just start typing and see if something hits me. In this case, I don’t think anything is going to happen. What is there to say about the state of Minnesota anyway? What is there to say about the Twins? Kirby Puckett and Johan Santana were cool and all, but it’s probably best to just get to the fantasy goods.
Roster
The Twins have been extremely quiet this offseason. The only rumors I can remember hearing were about them trading Pablo Lopez. They are not in buy mode, which is a little strange given how open the AL Central is these days.
But they do have a competitive roster. The lineup is the weaker part, but its’ not a horrible unit when they’re healthy (they’re just never healthy):
With Buxton and Correa in there, they can score some runs. Those two have been in the same lineup 352 times over the last three years, just 72% of the time. There’s some decent power in the other guys, and some young talent, but overall it’s not a lineup likely to finish much better than middle of the pack.
The rotation has a strong top three, and there’s a few young arms I really like that we’ll get to.
I’d give the Twins a decent shot to make another playoff appearance in 2025, and there is no shortage of relevant fantasy players to get to, so let’s hop to it.
Hitters
Royce Lewis
Age: 25
Pos: 3B
Royce Lewis went from “greatest hitter in the world if he can just stay healthy” to “is this guy good at all” in one season. What a strange year it was. He showed up healthy on Opening Day and immediately ripped a homer, but then got hurt running the bases and was out until June 4th. He got right back into the swing of things in June and July, slashing .255/328/.604 with 10 more homers in 119 PAs. But then, from August 1st onward, he slashed just .207/.265/.337 with just ten more homers in 204 PAs.
When his crazy season finally came to an end:
325 PA, .229/.292/.449, 22.8% K%, 8.6% BB%, 16 HR, 0 SB
Let’s check some of the indicators:
Brl%: 11.2%
Cont%: 73%
xBA: .243
xwOBA: .325
EV 90: 106.2
It was good to see him stay healthy for four months, but now we have to deal with the questions about the production. Can he really be a reliable power + batting average bat even with health?
His bat speed is good but shy of the elite, and his career xwOBA is down to .315 (another good but not great number).
I would like to lean on the projection here, but honestly, I can’t put a ton of trust into it either because I know it’s backed up by very spotty data. The guy has had so much trouble staying on the field. His career line (609 PA) is .268/.327/.495, with a homer every 18 PAs. Maybe we should use that. If that’s who he is, then he’s an elite power bat. However, there will not be steals, and I think the batting average ceiling is around .270 or so.
Rank
He is the #9 third baseman in my model. I don’t love the idea of risking it on him because we have seen so many injuries in the past. I’d be more willing to take that on if I thought he’d cruise to a 30-20 season with health, but that’s not what I’m seeing with the big man.
Projection
560 PA, 74 R, 26 HR, 79 RBI, 10, .258/.321/.470, $10.74 roto value
Willi Castro
Age: 27
Pos: 2B/3B/OF
Quadruple position eligibility alert! We have just two players being drafted this year who made 10+ appearances at four different positions:
That can be a real benefit in draft-and-hold leagues where you can’t go to the wire when one of your players hits the IL. You can slide Castro into your 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, or OF spot. That is massive.
The more important question is about whether he’s any good or not. So let’s check that out.
635 PA, .248/.332/.386, 23.6% K%, 8.0% BB%, 12 HR, 14 SB
Just 26 HR + SB across a full season’s worth of playing time and a batting average below .250. That’s not very good.
What’s very interesting to me is that he stole 33 bags in 2023 on a 36% attempt rate.
So, what’s the deal here? He was much less aggressive on the bases in 2024. I suppose we should expect that to mostly continue, but it’s also good to know he has that 30+ steal season in recent memory. I don’t see why he can’t go out and swipe 20-25 bags next year.
His contact skills are middling, with a 24% K% and a 71% contact rate. That’s a bit worse than average, and he also doesn’t crush the ball when making contact:
Brl%: 7.0%
xwOBA: .322
EV 90: 103.4
That 7% barrel rate was the best mark of his career, and he posted a career-low GB% as well at 40%.
Castro should play a bunch again and cruise pretty easily to a 10-10 season with a decent supply of counting stats. That still isn’t worth all that much in fantasy, and I don’t think he’s a standard league target. I will say that the position flexibility and upside do leave me on the buy side. My model thinks he can hit 17 homers and steal 23 bags. That’s optimistic, but it’s not a totally random guess, either. There’s information in his profile that does leave this kind of season in the range of outcomes.
I won’t draft Castro in any league where the replacement value is high, but he will surely be a target of mine in the NFBC 50-round draft-and-holds.
Rank
Projection
658 PA, 86 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 23 SB, .244/.328/.395, $9.53 roto value
Carlos Correa
Age: 30
Pos: SS
2024 was a “good news, bad news” season for Correa. The good news was that he smashed when in the box:
.310/.388/.517, 16.7% K%, 10.9% BB%, 9.2% Brl%, 80% Contact%
That was the 13th-best OPS in all of baseball.
2024 Hitters with K% < 20% and xwOBA > .360
Ketel Marte
Corey Seager
Francisco Lindor
Christian Yelich
Jackson Merrill
Carlos Correa
Lars Nootbaar
The bad news was that he missed about half the season, playing just 86 games. He did manage mostly full seasons in 2022 (490 PAs) and 2023 (580 PAs), so it’s not hopeless that he could play 130+ games in 2025. But he has this plantar fasciitis issue which can be a real bitch.
He’s still just 30, so he has plenty of years left. That makes him a high-upside power bat if he comes back next year and performs near what he did last year. He could be a legitimate .280 average, 30-homer player. That would be great at his ADP, but there’s a ton of playing time risk built in.
Right now, Correa has an ADP in the 250’s. That makes him cheap enough to take a shot on. You should, at the very least, get top-15 production from him (at the SS position) when he’s healthy, and there’s upside for him to be a big-time steal at that price.
I wouldn’t want to count on him as my starting SS, but I like the idea of using him as my middle infielder in a league with decent replacement options.
Rank
Projection
589 PA, 79 R, 21 HR, 68 RBI, 0 SB, .260/.343/.443, $5.98 roto value
Jose Miranda
Age: 26
Pos: 1B/3B
Miranda spent some time on the IL in 2024, but overall, he was an effective player for the Twins, and he clearly won himself a job for 2025.
429 PA, .284/.322/.441, .763 OPS, 15.4% K%, 4.2% BB%, 9 HR, 2 SB
He profiles as a batting average type without much in the home run or steals department.
Brl: 5.9%
xwOBA: .306
EV90: 103.2
GB%: 39%
LD%: 26%
FB%: 26%
The ability to fill in at 1B and 3B and rack up a bunch of hits in the middle of a lineup does get him some value, but the ceiling is very low. The floor isn’t locked in either, as we’ve seen him struggle at various times during his short career. He spent most of 2023 in the minor leagues and was even down there for a short time last year.
I don’t think Miranda is someone you should be looking to draft, but he’s a fine guy to grab for depth if he falls a ways past ADP.
Rank
Projection
527 PA, 61 R, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB, .254/.308/.405, <$1 roto value
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