2025 Team Previews - New York Mets
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the New York Mets ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
The Mets and Dodgers were the big stories of the offseason; both teams continued to do unprecedented things. The Mets have an owner that every baseball fan out there wishes their team had. They gave 15 years and $765 million to Juan Soto, and the guy doesn’t even have to wait a decade to get the lumpsum!
The Mets have been spending like madmen for the last few years and don’t have that much to show for it.
Maybe this is the year! Although, as of now, there isn’t a ton to love in the rotation.
Roster
This is still subject to change. I would doubt the Mets are done adding on, although it is looking more and more like Pete Alonso won’t be returning. That gives them an opening at a corner infield spot. Maybe they move to Mark Vientos to first base and bring in Alex Bregman. But I can’t wait forever to publish this, here’s what it looks like:
It’s a solid lineup, but not one that you think will put up all-time numbers or anything like that. The bottom five is pretty weak for how much money they’ve been spending. The real issue is the rotation. They have depth there but no truly great arms.
I would say it’s an underwhelming roster for the money. But hey, it’s hard to build a competitive Major League Baseball team. A lot of things have to go right for you to the top no matter how much money you have to throw at guys.
Hitters
Juan Soto
Age: 26
Pos: OF
Soto had the best season of his career at the perfect time and then landed this ridiculous contract with the Mets, where he’ll presume to spend the rest of his career.
708 PA, .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 7 SB, 128 R, 109 RBI
If we look at his last four seasons, we can see the floor:
I think it’s fair to say a 30-homer, 5-steal season with a lower batting average (maybe .260?) is in the range of outcomes. I would not be betting on a repeat of that 2024 season just because of a simple regression to the mean.
It’s fair to wonder how much the protection of Aaron Judge helped him and how much that ballpark added to his line. What we don’t have to wonder about is him being a stud hitter. His down years are still very good for fantasy purposes.
The one thing to point out is that he’s better in real life than he is in the roto fantasy game. He walks a ton, and that doesn’t help you much in a league that uses batting average. His career best in steals is 12, so we’re probably not getting more than that.
That puts him a tier behind the studs. I’d take him as a late first-round or early second-round option. But there are few players safer than Soto.
Rank
Projection
676 PA, 106 R, 39 HR, 102 RBI, 10 SB, .288/.423/.569, $18.22 roto value
Francisco Lindor
Age: 31
Pos: SS
Lindor also did some of the best work of his career in 2024. He came up so clutch in many big moments late in the year, and that was just the cherry on top of the great regular season he had:
684 PA, .272/.344/.496, 32 HR, 29 SB, 105 R, 88 RBI
He cleared 30 homers for the second straight year and raised his expected batting average from .250 to .283. There were a lot of improvements in his profile.
Lindor has now cleared 30 homers five times in his career out of the eight times he’s played more than 120 games.
We might be buying a little bit high on him this year. If you look back at his 2022 season, he hit just 26 homers with 16 steals. Still a very good season, but not the elite levels we saw last year.
Soto’s arrival should help him, and Lindor is another guy who never truly lets you down. I like him in the second round to lock in a stud shortstop.
I’m not spending much time in the numbers for these stud players, because we pretty much know who they are. These top 25 or so players are very easy to rank, so I like to move a bit more quickly through them.
Rank
Projection
688 PA, 108 R, 32 HR, 104 RBI, 26 SB, .269/.343/.488
Mark Vientos
Age: 25
Pos: 3B
Vientos had a breakout season in 2024, blasting 27 homers in just 450 PAs.
450 PA, .271/.327/.522, 27 HR, 58 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB
That gets him in the conversation as a top option at 3B this fantasy season. There are problems, however.
K%: 29.7%
Cont%: 65.6%
He had the fifth-highest K% of the 25+ homer club last season. If we look at hitters with a Brl% above 10% and a K% between 28% and 32%, the average batting average we find is .239. So he beat that by a lot. His expected batting average was .251, that’s 20 points below his actual - but still fine for a power bat.
I believe fully in the power. He hit a ball above 113 miles per hour and had that very high EV90 of 106.8. That, plus the lower 44% GB%, makes me believe he’s a 30+ homer bat. The downside would be that his batting average sinks to .240 with that high strikeout rate, and he becomes a pretty streaky hitter. He also won’t steal any bags, so there is more downside with him than with a lot of other guys.
Keep all that in mind. He pairs a lot better with someone like Corbin Carroll in the first round as compared to Aaron Judge. You want to lock in steals early on, and Vientos doesn’t offer that.
Rank
Projection
My model is crazy hot on him, and I think it’s probably a bit overheated, but here it is:
649 PA, 98 R, 37 HR, 95 RBI, 3 SB, .252/.309/.488
That’s with a 29% K%, so the model gives that launch angle profile a lot of credit.
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