2025 Team Previews - San Diego Padres
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the San Diego Padres ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
The Padres are in an interesting spot right now. They were a very good team last year and are looking like a strong competitor again in 2025. But right now, they are clearly looking to drastically cut payroll. The financial situation must not be the greatest. So we could see them trading away some of their best players this year, which is not usually what you see from a team that could feasibly be in the World Series mix (as if the Dodgers needed any help in that division!).
So that sucks if you’re a Padres fan, I guess. But hey, at least your team will still be decent this year, and at least it’s warm in California right now. January and February suck pretty bad when you live in the northeastern part of the country. However, it does make spring even better since you just came out of three months of horribleness.
I like the Padres for some reason. I can’t figure out why. They’re in California, which usually gets negative points from me. They have just about the ugliest jerseys you could imagine. I’m not much of an aesthetics guy either, but that doesn’t help things. And there’s also these guys that haven’t done them any favors:
But I don’t know, man. I found myself rooting for the Padres in the playoffs last year. Some feelings are impossible to explain.
Roster
It’s a strong top half to the lineup before things get really brutal. And they are not going to improve it through free agency this year. They have a couple of gaping holes in the outfield, but you do have to say the top four is one of the better groups in baseball.
The rotation is top-heavy. The Cease and King combination is extremely strong at the top. Both of those names have been mentioned in potential trade situations. Losing one of them would be a disaster for the rotation. You could end up with one of the worst units in baseball here since the depth is so lacking, but for right now I think it’s good enough to get them to the postseason again.
The bullpen did get worse with the exit of Tanner Scott, but it’s still a very strong group. Let’s get into things for fantasy.
Hitters
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Age: 26
Pos: OF
We haven’t seen a truly elite fantasy season from Tatis since 2021, but he continues to do enough to stay in the first-round conversation. He missed a good amount of time last year, falling short of 450 PAs, but he slashed a nice .274/.338/.490 with 21 homers and 11 steals.
Just to do a quick comparison of 2021 vs. 2023-2024:
2021: 545 PA, .282/.364/.611, 42 HR, 25 SB
23-24: 1,073 PA, .265/.329/.467, 46 HR, 40 SB
He’s been nowhere near the same player since that 2021 season. That doesn’t mean he’s not a very, very good fantasy player. Let’s check some 2024 indicators:
Brl%: 14.5%
Cont%: 71.9%
xwOBA: .392
xBA: .295
EV90: 109.4
GB%: 46%
Max EV: 116.7
All of those numbers, besides the contact rate, are either elite or very strong. It’s hard to doubt that he can get back to 30+ homers with a full season of health. A 14.5% Brl% and 22% K% easily play to that kind of power production.
We did see a reduced stolen base attempt rate last year. He was on the IL from June 24th to September 2nd with a leg injury. Before that injury, he had eight steals and a 12% attempt rate in 348 PAs. After coming back off the IL, he stole just three more bags, but the attempt rate was higher at 23%. That’s strange but encouraging that he wasn’t holding back from trying to steal bags after that injury.
I think he’s pretty clear a 25-20 guy, and there’s real upside for 35-30 or something like that. The Padres should be at least competent at run-scoring, so I don’t see much of a reason to avoid Tatis in the later part of the first round. Maybe you’re a little bit worried about the injury history, and that’s fine. I’m not going to take that all that seriously, and I do think the guy is one of just a handful of players that have true upside to the #1 fantasy hitter in the game.
Rank
Projection
679 PA, 107 R, 33 HR, 94 RBI, 23 SB, .273/.337/.495, $18.14 roto value
Jackson Merrill
Age: 22
Pos: OF
Merrill’s 2024 season was one of the most surprising things we saw. It’s rare that you see a rookie come up to the Majors and immediately start hitting without real slumps. That’s what Merrill did last year.
590 PA, .293/.328/.502, 17.1% K%, 4.9% BB%, 24 HR, 16 SB
He had a super high swing rate at 56.9%. He’s an aggressive hitter. The good news is that he paired that with a 34.4% chase rate, which is four points better than the average for players who swing above 54% of the time. A high swing rate is not an inherently bad thing, and it can be a good thing if it’s paired with a competitive chase rate. It does cost him some value in OBP leagues, though, so keep that in mind if that’s your league type.
If we take a look at this batted ball data, we see a lot to like.
Brl%: 11.3%
Cont%: 79.5%
xwOBA: .373
xBA: .299
EV90: 105.1
GB%: 37%
It’s hard to find any holes to poke in the guy. It’s always going to be harder to trust someone who has done this stuff just one time as compared to having a long career doing it. I didn’t originally think I’d be in on him when I saw that third-round ADP, but I can’t make much of an argument against it after digging in.
Rank
Projection
641 PA, 86 R, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 16 SB, .289/.327/.514, $15.84 roto value
Manny Machado
Age: 32
Pos: 3B
Machado’s 2024 season was basically more of the same as what we’ve seen from him since signing with San Diego.
639 PA, .272/.322/.470, 29 HR, 11 SB, 19.4% K%, 6.9% BB%
Here’s the recent seasons’ data:
No signs of developing a strikeout issue, and he’s been around 30 homers every year. He’s no longer a 15+ steals threat, so that will keep him away from the elite fantasy performers, but I like the security you get with Manny.
He kept hitting the ball well last year:
Brl%: 11.0%
Cont%: 76%
EV90: 107.7
GB%: 43%
There’s still a lot of red on the slider page:
There’s not a ton to fall in love with at the top of this third base position, and Machado clearly rounds out the top tier (although maybe J-Ram should have his own) at the position this year.
In my head, there are basically three categories of players:
Players I want and will jump ADP to get
Players I don’t want and won’t touch until several rounds of falling
Players I’m fine with and will take them if they fit my current team build
Most players will be in that third bin, and that’s where Machado goes.
Rank
Projection
648 PA, 83 R, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 8 SB, .263/.326/.458, $10.12 roto value
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