2025 Team Previews - San Francisco Giants
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the San Francisco Giants ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
I was reminiscing to my wife about playing Gamecube when I was a kid and how I was really mad that I threw my old system away when we moved. In reality, throwing it away was the right thing to do. With three kids, a full time job, and this Substack, spending any amount of time playing old video games is negative EV. But anyways, my wife heard me and bought me an old Gamecube for Christmas this year. I immediately went and ordered MVP 05, the great video game ever created.
So that’s been on my mind. On a related note, whenenever I hear the words “San Francisco Giants”, my mind goes directly to one thing. Jon Dowd.
I still don’t know exactly why they couldn’t put Barry Bonds in that game. I could easily find out, but I don’t even want to. It’s also funny that they made Dowd white. Some people of a certain political affiliation could have a real field day with that one. Black erasure or something, but let’s stay on track here.
The Giants have been one of those teams that are respectable every year, but it’s been a long time since they’ve been a real threat. Remember that time in the early 2010’s when they’d win the World Series every other year? Well, that was a long time ago! And I don’t care about the Giants.
From a fantasy perspective, the Giants can be a real pain in the ass. They have really leaned into the platoon. I can’t put quite quantity if, but I would imagine they are the franchise with the most different lineups between what they roll out against righties compared to lefties. I have no idea how to even put that idea into words, but I think you get what I’m saying.
That leads to there not being many interesting bats for fantasy leagues.
Roster
The big move for the Giants this off-season was the Willy Adames signing. We’ll talk about him, obviously. I would call it an overpay, and it doesn’t seem like the perfect fit, but hey - you’ve gotta pay the market rates. It was a solid move for the Giants to get a very good player at a position they’ve been struggling at, I just think that contract is going to be looking pretty rough in a few years.
The rotation is firmly in the middle of the pack.
Two good arms at the top, and then non-awful options with Hicks and Harrison. There’s a smattering of younger guys who I figure will compete for that fifth spot. Things could really get ugly if Robbie Ray doesn’t stay healthy, but for now - it’s fine.
This certainly isn’t a team who can compete with the Dodgers for the division crown, but a Wild Card berth is in range.
Hitters
Willy Adames
Age: 29
Pos: SS
The Giants made their big splash in free agency pretty early on, giving Adames a huge seven-year contract. He was one of the best hitters available on the market, and the Giants have had a shortstop need for quite some time. The fit makes sense. Adames is coming off a career-best season. He did this in his final performance in Milwaukee:
.251/.331/.462, .794 OPS, 25% K%, 11% BB%, 32 HR, 93 R, 112 RBI, 21 SB
That’s a huge season, and it landed him at #19 on my player rater (hitters only). Let’s put some more numbers on his season:
Brl%: 12.0%
Contact: 70.5%
xwOBA: .345
BABIP: .297
Pull%: 38%
His power numbers were undeniable, and he did everything else pretty well. His stolen base attempt rate went from 6% to 15% from 2023 to 2024, and that really bolstered his fantasy value. We have seen that before from guys in contract years, so I’m not sure it’s right to expect another double-digit attempt rate from him in 2025.
Everything came together for Willy in 2024, and what great timing it was.
The landing spot is a downgrade for him. First, we have the “big contract motivation” factor. I’m not sure if this really exists, but it might. I think I’d be a bit more focused on producing at the plate if I had my next (and probably final) contract at stake after the season.
The more certain issue is that it’s a big park downgrade. Milwaukee is in the top five in HR/FB for righties, while San Francisco is in the bottom five. Here’s that full data:
My neutral Willy Adames projection was 26 homers. In San Francisco, it dropped to 25 homers. If I run it with him on Milwaukee, it spits out 29 homers. San Francisco isn’t that much worse than neutral, but it is significantly worse than Milwaukee for right-handed hitters.
I think Adames is a safe shortstop target. I’m guessing the ADP will drop (meaning he’ll be cheaper) with the signing in San Francisco. And I’m docking him as well. The steals and homers are both likely to come down. That doesn’t mean I’m totally out on the guy, it’s all about the price, but buying Adames at current ADP would be a “buy high”, and I’m not very fond of doing such things.
Rank
Projection
648 PA, 82 R, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 13 SB, .241/.324/.433, $9.01 roto value
Matt Chapman
Age: 31
Pos: 3B
Chapman had a very strong season at the plate in 2024 in addition to that strong defense he’s always brought. He got his power swing bat and belted 27 homers while scoring 98 times and driving in 74 runs. He also stole a career-best 15 bags. He was one of the more valuable picks in the 2024 drafts.
He made a lot of improvements to his profile in his age-30 season. He lowered his strikeout rate by four points, hit ten more homers, and almost quadrupled his steals total.
Interestingly, Chapman’s barrel rate fell from 17.1% to 12.6% (still a very strong number), and his hard hit rate dropped from 56% to 48%. It’s possible he was being a little bit less aggressive with his swings. It would stand to reason that he dropped that bat speed a bit in order to make more contact and/or control the ball off of the bat a little bit. But that’s speculation.
Chapman’s skills have long been underrated, and now we have some extra numbers to put on that. He showed 97th-percentile bat speed last year (so I guess that makes it less likely that he slowed his swing down last year…) and 84th-percentile sprint speed. That high bat speed had not turned into a 30-homer season since 2019, and he had never even attempted double-digit steals prior to last year.
Imagine if that were a second-year hitter. We would be talking about a player with round-one upside. But instead, it’s Matt Chapman, so we can draft him after pick 150.
Chapman is simply an excellent baseball player, one of the better all-around players in the league. And he’s constantly overlooked.
It’s fair to say he doesn’t have the 35-homer upside or a real chance at 20 steals, and he’s not shown the ability to hit anywhere near .300. For those reasons, I can’t say that he’s a clear top third base target, but there are many, many worse draft picks you can make at the third base position this year. I’m back in.
Rank
Projection
642 PA, 82 R, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 10 SB, .246/.329/.460, $10.82 roto value
Chapman has hit exactly 27 homers in three of the last four years, so I really enjoy that my projection system said 27 again.
Heliot Ramos
Age: 25
Pos: OF
Ramos made an unforeseen splash in the Majors last season. He found his way into the Major League lineup in early May and homered 10 times before July 1st. That got him on the fantasy map in a hurry When the season ended:
518 PA, .269/.322/.469, 22 HR, 6 SB, 54 R, 72 RBI
That’s an excellent rookie season; good for about a 25-10 pace. Let’s take a look at some of the underlying marks:
xBA: .248
xwOBA: .339
Brl%: 14.5%
K%: 26.2%
Cont%: 71%
EV 90: 107.2
BABIP: .329
There’s some batting average regression to be expected, but he put up decent contact numbers and he does hit the ball quite hard. The 90th-percentile bat speed backs up the power indicators, so I think it’s safe to say this guy can be a legitimate power bat at the highest levels.
Often times we see the league’s pitchers adjust and generate sophomore slumps, but that’s obviously no guarantee - and maybe Heliot will adjust even more and even improve.
Ramos was the Giants’ #20 prospect coming into last season, so he took a lot of people by surprise. His minor league career was nothing to get very excited about:
.258/.336/.437, .773 OPS, 26% K%, 9.2% BB%, 47 HR (29 PA/HR)
But he had been smashing in the minors before the call-up, so it looks like Ramos just came into the 2024 season as a much-improved hitter.
The pick isn’t without risk. I could see the league finding a hole in his swing, and that could send the K% and GB% up and crater him. I think we should view him as a pretty solid HR/RBI option later in the draft. I’m not opposed to the idea of drafting him, but it would be beneficial for him if the Giants add some talented hitters to fill in around Chapman and Ramos this offseason (and they did with Adames after I wrote that sentence).
Rank
Projection
602 PA, 75 R, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 9 SB, .246./306/.448, $10.69 roto value
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