2025 Team Previews - Seattle Mariners
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the Seattle Mariners ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
The M’s managed to take one of the most talented pitching staffs I’ve ever seen and turn it into a season where they missed the playoffs. Their .303 team wOBA ranked 21st in the league, and they struggled a ton with the strikeout.
I heard someone mention that hitters have trouble in Seattle because of the batter’s eye there, so I wanted to finally investigate that for myself. I found all the hitters dating back to 2021 who have seen at least 250 pitches both in and outside of Seattle, and then I compared their contact rates.
The average difference was -1.4 points of contact rate, and 66% of hitters in the sample did worse in Seattle than outside of it. Here’s the full list:
I suppose that’s evidence that those people are correct. The Mariners lineup had a lot of high K% hitters in it last year and they tied with Colorado for highest team strikeout rate at 26.8% (those two were well ahead of the #3 team, which was Boston at 25.4%).
Still, there’s enough offensive upside here to make me think they can make a run at the division this season. The rotation is so strong, and the AL West has gotten at least a little bit weaker this offseason.
Roster
Other than Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, there’s very little thump in the lineup. It’s pretty rough to be depending on guys like Victor Robles, Randy Arozarena, and Mitch Haniger. We’re still pretty early on in the offseason, so there’s a chance they’ll add a bat or two.
There has even been talks about a potential Luis Castillo trade. They have the rotation depth to justify that, but they’ll be looking for the proper price.
There’s a lot more to say on the pitching front here, but we have a lot to talk about overall - let’s get into it.
Hitters
Julio Rodriguez
Age: 24
Pos: OF
2024 was a down year for Julio Rodriguez. He only hit .273 with 20 homers and 24 steals. That’s still quite good production in the fantasy game, but it did not justify his top three ADP.
The OPS fell 110 points from his rookie year, and he came up 12 homers and 13 steals shy of what he did in 2023.
This offers us a lesson in natural regression. Even the best players are going to have years where they fall well short of expectations. Mookie Betts is a decently comparable player to Rodriguez, and he’s had a few seasons where you are a bit underwhelmed for fantasy purposes.
It’s weird to begin this Mariners preview with a Mookie Betts plot, but I do think it’s instructive. There are going to be peaks and valleys in any player’s career. Even while in their prime, it’s never a guarantee that they’ll put up the seasons they’re capable of every individual year.
I think what we saw with J-Rod last year was just that - a natural down point that will eventually look like part of a normal career flow.
J-Rod still hit the ball very hard (108.1 EV 90, 10.2% Brl%, .347 xwOBA), and there wasn’t a frightening boost in strikeout rate or anything like that (25.5% K%).
There is a little bit more room for batting average variation with a guy that has a mid-20s strikeout rate, and that’s what Rodriguez has been in his career. There will probably be some seasons where he hits .260. His xBA last year was just .266, and he was helped by a high .344 BABIP.
I don’t see any reason at all to worry about Rodriguez, and I’m happy to draft him again in 2025. And this time, we get him in the back of the first round rather than the front.
Rank
Projection
677 PA, 98 R, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 25 SB, .267/.329/.474, $16.53 roto value
Cal Raleigh
Age: 28
Pos: C
Raleigh has homered his way into more and more playing for the Mariners, and that has made him one of the best catchers in the fantasy game since he came on the scene.
Cal Raleigh PAs & HRs by Year
2022: 415 PA, 27 HR
2023: 569 PA, 30 HR
2024: 628 PA, 34 HR
We now look at Raleigh as one of those rare catchers that can play 150+ games and hit 30+ homers. He even drove in 100 runs last year. That’s something you almost never get from a backstop.
The ADP is climbing, of course, so it’s a tougher decision to make this year. He’s a top-five catcher in drafts. The homers and RBIs are elite, but the one thing we have to mention with Raleigh is the damage he does to your team’s batting average. He has a career .220 batting average now. That is what happens with a 28% K% and low line drive rate.
As I’ve said over and over again, catcher strategy is very much league-dependent in my book. If I’m in a 15-team league where I need to start two catchers, I’m fine with going to Raleigh or one of these other top-tier catchers. He gives you a big boost there when the rest of the league will have at least one catcher maxing out at 10-12 homers. But in a standard league where I only need one catcher, I doubt I want to pay this higher cost for a guy with such a low batting average.
Rank
He goes to the top of my catcher rankings thus far.
Projection
593 PA, 77 R, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, .235/.319/.465, $11.87 roto value
Randy Arozarena
Age: 30
Pos: OF
The wheels fell off for Randy in 2024. He hit just .219 and was moved from Tampa Bay to Seattle at the trade deadline. He lost 71 points on his OPS from the prior year and posted his highest strikeout rate since 2021.
Even with all of that, he stayed in the lineup all year and pulled off another 20-20 season by the skin of his teeth.
And I’ve never understood that phrase, our teeth don’t have skin. Is that even the correct phrase? I just Googled it, and wow, it turns out it comes from the Book of Job! A Bible book! And the oldest one in the Bible, don’t you know? How about that.
Let’s see what happened to Arozarena in the skills department. The truth is, the guy has never been bursting with physical talent. He’s never hit the ball very hard, and has a history of mediocre batting averages.
What we saw last year was a higher K% and a lower hard-hit rate (dropped from 48% to 43%).
His sprint speed came in at the 71st percentile, which is far from a fantastic sign. There are probably still 20 steals in his game, but the .219 xBA and .381 xSLG from last year are really discouraging.
At the age of 30, there’s plenty of gas left in the tank. I’ve never been enthralled with the guy, so finally being “right” about him last year makes me like him even less for next year. The ADP has fallen to 133. To me, that’s still too high. While it’s not easy to find 20-20 threats that late, I think 20-20 with a poor batting average is close to the ceiling for the guy. I’m mostly out, but everybody has a price!
Rank
Projection
652 PA, 75 R, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 17 SB, .233/.338/.403, $11.34 roto value
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