April 17th DFS Analysis
This article comes at you thanks to paid subscriber Adam Shulman, who basically got on his knees and groveled to me to write these more. Apparently every time I write one of these he wins a quadrillion dollars on DFS cause my picks and analysis are just so, so elite.
The Internet is a very sensitive place, so I feel like a good percentage of my jokes and sarcasm is taken the wrong by a certain percentage of readers, but I have basically dedicated myself to just not caring about that.
The truth is, I haven’t even been profitable on MLB DFS over the last few years if you take out that $50,000 win last year which was enormously lucky. I just randomly played six lineups in a $15 GPP last year, which I had not been doing at all that year, and then completely lucked into first place. I remember tweaking the lineup while giving my kid a bath because some of the players in the original lineup weren’t in the lineup. That’s just how GPPs go.
That said, the first couple of times I have written this article - the picks have been freaking amazing. I have cashed less than half the time in double-ups this year, but the two times I wrote this article and gave a cash lineup I placed in the top 10%. So much of all of this is luck, so let’s try to keep that luck rolling again tonight.
Weather
RotoGrinders Weather Report Here
The run of great weather is over. The PHI/CWS game has already been PPD. It’s also looking bad in Detroit. Those are the two closest MLB cities to where I live, and yeah the weather sucks here. I woke up with snow on the ground. And two days ago, I was outside with my kids spraying them with a hose.
Luckily, the Cleveland/Detroit game is pretty uninteresting for DFS anyways so we’ll just proceed completely ignoring that game - since we’d likely be doing that anyways. Actually, it looks like that game wasn’t on the main slate anyways and I just wasted two paragraphs!
Pitchers
Me and my buddies used to play wiffleball after school (and then later on, after work), and any time a hitter would get into an 0-2 count, the outfielders would yell “0-2 count you know what to do!”. One of those jokes.
Anyways, it’s deGrom day and he’s priced at $10,100 - not even the most expensive pitcher on the slate. He faces the Royals, who have surrendered the most points per batter faced to opposing pitchers. This is a “you know what to do” situation.
The general rule is never to pay for chalk players if you want to win a tournament. This does not apply to Jacob deGrom at $10,100. It just doesn’t.
Obviously, it’s still possible that deGrom gets hurt in the first inning or just doesn’t do that well and then the lineups without him get a huge boost. You clearly aren’t going to win a tournament with deGrom unless he goes for 25+ points tonight, but chances of him going for 25+ are just so much greater than something going wrong, so I don’t see how I can build a lineup without him.
That’s one way to deal with high ownership, just go harder than the field on a player. Build five lineups and put deGrom in all of them. If that 20% chance hits and he doesn’t do great - then yeah you’re dead, but you get a boost if that 80% chance hits.
And in cash games, forget about it - he’s a free square. Play him, and then thank the 10-15% of people who don’t.
As for the rest of the pitchers, the projections like Cristian Javier as the SP2 for cash. The matchup sucks though. Toronto has been the third-stingiest in the league at giving up pitcher fantasy points (Rays, Mets). They are allowing just 0.50 DK points per batter faced (the league average is 0.62). Javier is great, but I don’t view him as a safe ace for DFS purposes. I’m fine with betting on him over the long haul, but start-to-start I think he’s a little risky with the high FB% and the walks he can surrender. I don’t think I’ll go there in cash.
On the other side of that game is Gausman, who is very similar as a great pitcher that has bad starts from time to time, and he’s up against the Astros.
That leaves us with Corbin Burnes who is still cheaper than usual at $8,800 against Seattle. I think that’s my SP2 in cash.
It’s never a great idea to pay down at SP in cash games where you really just want to lock in points as best as you can, but Hayden Wesneski is at $6,300 against Oakland Jordan Lyles is wayyy down at $5,400 against the Rangers. I think either of those guys is fine and it’ll let you get some of that Coors games where Rich Hill is pitching.
Cash SP ranks
deGrom $10,100
Burnes $8,800
Wesneski $6,300
Lyles $5,400
Javier $9,200
Tournament Pool
I don’t think the approach is much different between cash and tournaments here. I can get into some Dustin May at super low ownership against the Mets. He is capable of having very good games against anyone, and maybe he’ll go for more strikeouts in this spot against the really tough Mets lineup. But I’ll probably stick mostly with deGrom+Lyles, deGrom+Wesneski, deGrom+Javier - stuff like that.
Hitters
If you are a paid sub, you have access to the projections Tableau dashboard. Here’s the “team hitting” tab as it currently appears:
The Braves are at the top of this almost every time just because of how many amazing fantasy hitters are in that lineup. As for Vegas, the Braves are actually sixth in implied runs (fifth if you just consider the teams on the main slate):
Since the beginning of last season, Rich Hill has given up a 9.6% Brl% and a homer every 28.1 PAs. Those aren’t horrid numbers, but if you take away the lefties the numbers bloat to 10.4% and 25.6. Righties have slugged .456 against him with a 19% K%. He’s in Coors, and he doesn’t get many ground balls, so I think the Rockies are going to have some success.
If you’re a Stuff+ guy, he is bottom five of the whole day in that regard as well:
The problem is that the Rockies aren’t exactly a loaded lineup, especially when you consider just the righties. CJ Cron and Kris Bryant stand out, but of course, their prices have come up to be close to correct for the spot - and neither of them is hitting the ball well this year.
On the other side of the game is my Buccos! Since 2022 began, Freeland has given up a .508 SLG at home with a poor 15.6% K%. There aren’t huge differences in righty/lefty either.
The Pirates projections:
Some of these prices are really appealing. I’ll probably jump on Joe/Castro/Hayes in cash.
For now, let’s just go position by position and see who stands out, I always feel a little more clear when I do that.
Catchers
» Sean Murphy $4,400
» William Contreras $3,800
» Elias Diaz $3,700
» Gabriel Moreno $2,200
Favorite: Diaz
First Base
» CJ Cron $5,400
» Carlos Santana $3,400 (better for cash than tournaments)
» Nathaniel Lowe $4,400
» Brandon Belt $2,200 (total punt option)
» Matt Olson $5,300
Second Base
» Mookie Betts $5,900
» Ozzie Albies $4,600
» Nico Hoerner $3,900
» Rodolfo Castro $3,200
Third Base
» Ke’Bryan Hayes $3,800
» Austin Riley $5,600
» Brett Baty $2,000
Shortstop
» Ezequiel Tovar $2,900
» Rodolfo Castro $3,200
» Willy Adames $5,200
» Vaughn Grissom $3,100
Outfield
» Ronald Acuna Jr. $6,500
» Kris Bryant $5,500
» Corbin Carroll $3,100
» Starling Marte $5,200
» Jurickson Profar $3,600
» Connor Joe $3,500
Cash Lineup
SP1: deGrom $10,100
SP2: Burnes $8,800
C: Moreno $2,200
1B: Santana $3,400
2B: Albies $4,600
3B: Baty $2,000
SS: Castro $3,200
OF: Acuna Jr. $6,500
OF: Bryant $5,500
OF: Joe $3,500
I really do hate Coors slates just because it’s so hard to get away from that game, but in the context of this slate, I do think we need to lean into it.
One other thing I didn’t mention yet is that I added a “lineup spot” selection to the “Team Hitting” tab on the dashboard, so then you can kind of pick your stacks. You can select lineup spots 1-5 and see how the projections change, like so:
Then you could even sort by ceiling there and build stacks that way. Here’s me doing so a couple of times:
Tourney Lineup 1
SP1: deGrom $10,100
SP2: Lyles $5,400
C: Langeliers $3,100
1B: Olson $5,300
2B: Albies $4,600
3B: Riley $5,600
SS: Grissom $3,100
OF: Acuna Jr. $6,500
OF: Laureano $4,000
OF: Capel $2,100
Braves + cheap A’s stack
Tourney Lineup 2
SP1: deGrom $10,100
SP2: Lyles $5,400
C: Moreno $2,200
1B: Freeman $5,600
2B: Betts $5,900
3B: Muncy $4,800
SS: Adames $5,200
OF: Martinez $4,400
OF: Thompson $2,900
OF: Carroll $3,100
Dodgers stack plus two D’Backs and Adames
Tourney Lineup 3
SP1: deGrom $10,100
SP2: Wesneski $6,300
C: William Contreras $3,800
1B: Goldschmidt $5,700
2B: Gorman $4,100
3B: Arenado $5,500
SS: Castro $3,200
OF: Nootbaar $3,700
OF: Joe $3,500
OF: Wisdom $3,900
Cardinals stack + two Pirates + two Cubs
Okay, that’s it. I guess the lesson we learned today is that if you really like these posts, tell me that you really like them cause that does kind of pressure me into writing them more often.
I'm entering all 3 of these tonight lol, will report back.
Or buy a mansion, maybe both.