August 19th MLB DraftKings Analysis
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Pitchers
This is a really tough night for picking pitchers. It will be key to get these right, so let’s go over all the potential options.
Shane McClanahan $10,200 vs. KC
This would have been a slam-dunk play a month ago, but Shane has hit a downturn. He’s scored 2, 9, and 16 points in his last three starts while only striking out 11 and walking six. He did have 20 whiffs in the last start against Baltimore; it was a big improvement, but still the 4:3 K:BB was weird to see. It’s important to not get bogged down by recent data, but the current form might be enough for me to fade Shane here.
Blake Snell $9,300 vs. WSH
Snell is basically the opposite of McClanahan. Bad for most of the year, but in great form lately. In fact, nobody has scored more points per inning than Snell since July 1st.
The matchup with the Nats is a soft one, and there’s plenty of strikeouts to be had here. The reason for hesitation is that Snell has the tendency to put together 4 or 5 walks in a start, which can really end up hurting if a longball follows up a couple of those walks. But the strikeouts are for-real, and they do give him a somewhat decent floor since we can count on a dozen or so points just from the strikeouts.
Brady Singer $8,300 vs. Rays
25.5%-6.0% K-BB% for the year. 29.3%-7.6% since July 1st. Scoring 22.9 DraftKings points per start since July 1st (eight starts), that’s better than every pitcher on the slate besides Snell. He’s been under 20 points just one since July 13th, and that was a poor effort against the White Sox where he gave up 11 hits.
I didn’t like Singer this morning, but my guy Thunder Dan likes him, and the projections actually do as well.
This is pretty eye-popping given that the projections are using a big enough sample to reach back into 2021 for Singer, when he wasn’t all that good. So I guess I’m sold on Singer, and this price tag is great.
Aaron Nola $9,800 vs. Mets
He’s handled the Mets just fine three times this year, going over 20 points each time. I can’t shake the feeling that going back to the well a fourth time will be bad. The projection is pretty low as well at 18.7, which is a no-go with the $9800 price tag. I’ll fade Nola, I guess, but man it feels weird to prefer Singer to Nola.
Kevin Gausman $8,200 vs. Yankees
Projections also really not liking Gausman, and he’s had a few bumpy starts lately - but some elite ones mixed in as well. He’s a risky play in any spot right now, but especially so against the Yanks. However, the strikeout upside is big with the Yankees as they have a pretty bad team strikeout rate this year.
Kutter Crawford $6,400 vs. Orioles
I won’t be going here with my one lineup, but Crawford is a decent option if you’re looking for a punt. He’s averaged 16.5 points since July 1st, and the matchup is good. You would certainly take 15 points from him at this tag, but I just don’t think we need the savings tonight.
Team Offense
I really hate when we have Coors Field spots like this. I don’t remember having a good night when something like this is happening. The projections and common sense always take me towards a road team stack against Urena, and it just hasn’t worked yet.
Adding to that, the Giants are a frustrating team to play because they pinch-hit so much. All of the top projections on offense tonight are Giants
Brandon Belt $2800, 9.64 proj, 3.44 value
Brandon Crawford $2000, 9.16 proj, 4.58 value
LaMonte Wade Jr. $2400, 8.55 proj, 3.56 value
Thairo Estrada $4000, 9.93 proj, 2.48 value
J.D. Davis $2700, 8.11 proj, 3.00 value
Wilmer Flores $3800 9.29 proj, 2.44 value
Wade may be leading off, which would make him a “free square” IF NOT FOR the fact that he has gotten pinch hit for in half of his starts this year.
Looking at the Rockies bullpen, there are only two lefties, Austin Gomber and Lucas Gilbreath. Gomber threw 60 pitches yesterday, so he’s clearly not available, but Gilbreath will be available. I suppose the presence of just one lefty ups the chances substantially of getting 4+ PA’s from Wade, which I suppose means he’ll be in my lineup.
The projections are loving Belt because of how good he’s been when healthy, but I don’t know if he’s healthy right now. He’s been just awful this year besides a good 12.5% Brl%. We don’t have to worry too much about strikeouts tonight because Urena strikes out lefties only 14.8% of the time, and there isn’t a ton to love at 1B - so Belt is likely to make it into a lineup tonight.
Estrada, Davis, and Flores are also really strong as guys that don’t get pinch hit for very often, and in the case of Davis and Estrada - they’ve been above-average DraftKings points scorers this year.
Seeing the Giants lineup will be of enormous importance tonight.
The other team offense to target is the Padres, I would really like to get Soto & Machado in the lineup tonight.
Let’s get to the position-by-position breakdown and display the player pool I’m working with. The rest will only be for paid members, so sign up today to see this full post on Tuesdays and Fridays, and to get everything else I do here for MLB and NFL.