Boring Veterans to Draft in 2024
Everybody likes the shiny new toy, but the building blocks to a winning team are often overlooked veterans
This will be part one of a two-part series. Today we’ll look at value veterans, and in part two we’ll check out some upside youngsters.
My preference in building a [redraft] fantasy baseball team is to take the boring veterans much more often than the upside rookies. While every year there are a few breakout rookies that make a huge impact on the fantasy game, more often than not they fall flat in their first big league stints. And putting together solid fantasy teams consistently is all about taking what the draft gives you. The draft hands us plenty of advantageous price tags on players that nobody is excited to draft because of their age and/or lack of exciting upside.
This year seems to be even more pronounced on that front. There are so many of these types of players I want to draft and have drafted already, so let’s get to the names!
Hitters
Manny Machado
Age: 31
2023 ADP: 14
2024 ADP: 75
For several years now we have seen Machado with a top-20 ADP, but he’s fallen a ton ahead of this 2024 season. As we’ll see throughout this post, the field is smart - and there are usually good reasons for big drops in ADP.
For Machado, the fall is probably about the 12 steals he’s posted over the last two full seasons and the low .258 batting average he went for last year. It’s been a long time since that 2018 37-homer, 14-steal season. Since 2021 he’s a .278/.345/.495 hitter with a homer every 21 PAs and about eight steals per year.
I think the price is fair, but the benefit here is that we have a really solid floor and he’s only one year removed from a .298 batting average. The upshot is 30 homers, 100 RBI, 10 steals, and a .285 average. If he does that, he will crush this ADP. I don’t think there are too many paths to him letting you down at his ADP, so that’s the reason to take the discount on Machado.
Projection: 653 PA, 82 R, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .256/.331/.447, .778 OPS
Salvador Perez
Age: 33
2023 ADP: 70
2024 ADP: 145
This one is a bit tougher to recommend because we have a fresh infusion of talent into the catcher position this year.
Perez had a massive 2021 season that made him the clear top catcher for the 2022 drafts. Following those 48 homers in 2021, he has totaled just 46 in his last two seasons.
So the raw power is fading, which isn’t surprising for a 33-year-old with this much wear and tear on his legs over the years, but you can see that he’s still managing strikeouts at 23% and playing a lot (for a catcher).
There’s almost no chance he ever flirts with 40 bombs again, but the ADP this year makes him the #6 catcher off the board, and that feels just fine. Personally, I’d rather wait 50-70 more picks and just grab Mitch Garver or someone like that, but I think he’s falling a bit too far as people go after the younger, more exciting bats at the catcher position.
Projection: 583 PA, 71 R, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 2 SB, .252/.301/.431, .731 OPS
Nolan Arenado
Age: 32
2023 ADP: 32
2024 ADP: 96
We will highlight three different Cardinals players here, and Arenado is the first one. He has long been a top-50 pick; a lot of you probably weren’t even playing fantasy baseball back when he became a perennial top-50 pick, but he’s fallen a ton ahead of this 2024 season.
A big reason for that, I believe, is the dud season the Cardinals put together last year. It was Arenado’s first season under 100 RBI since 2014.
The strikeout rate came up five points, and the barrel rate fell one point while the GB% came up eight points. We don’t like to see any of that, but do we think he can’t bounce back to his normal self in 2024? He’s only 32. I think a 30-homer, 100+ RBI season is well within the range of outcomes here, and this guy is way down at 3B #10 in drafts. That’s a price I want to pounce on (but make sure you get some steals with your first few hitter picks).
Projection: 648 PA, 86 R, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 4 SB, .269/.332/.459, .791 OPS
Many more players are touched on below the paywall, and I provide you with the full 2023 vs. 2024 ADP data. Subscribe today to get this post and everything else, new content several times a week as we get closer to draft season!