Breakout SPs for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
The long piece where I go through all of my potential breakout SPs ahead of 2024 fantasy drafts, giving my thought-process along the way.
This will be my definitive list of breakout SPs, and I’ll give you the reasoning and my thought processes along the way. Remember that I define a breakout as someone who I believe is likely to vastly outdo their ADP-driven value. This means that I’m not writing up Zack Wheeler or Pablo Lopez or anyone like that. They are already priced out of the “breakout” range. We will spend most of our time in the middle, late, and very late rounds of the draft. Some of these guys will have such low ADPs that a draft pick on them isn’t even justified in standard leagues. Those will be names to watch closely in their first few outings of the season and then see if they’re looking better than someone else you drafted.
I will give you three SPs for free, and then a bunch more below the paywall. And we’ll go in order of ADP.
I’ll be citing a bunch of stats along the way, most of which can be found in the paid subscriber resource here (search “2024 Draft Prep Stats Sheet” at sheets.google.com if you’re a paid subscriber):
What I am mostly doing here is recycling write-ups from the team previews. So if these blurbs sounds familiar to you, you may have read them before! But I give my full reasoning for all of these breakout picks in those team previews, so why should I write things twice! I will include a “TLDR” (too long, didn’t read) at the beginning of each just giving a one or two sentence summary.
Let’s get to it!
Tyler Glasnow, ADP 41
TLDR: Per-inning he’s a top 3 pitcher in baseball, we just need 25+ starts from him to see him enter the Cy Young conversation, and he’s healthy right now - so why can’t he do it this year?
From the team preview:
We have yet to see a full season from Glasnow, but in 2023, we got a good taste of what it could look like if he does get there.
21 GS, 120 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 33.4% K%, 7.6% BB%
The ERA is high, and he doesn’t have the greatest history of being healthy, but if you look any further than that you can see this guy is a total stud.
He’s right up there with Strider right now in terms of strikeouts (33.4%) and SwStr% (17.2%).
He had command issues early on in his career, but he’s cleaned that up as you can see above.
He has an elite fastball (53.6% Strike%, 52% GB%, 11.7% SwStr%), an elite slider (20.0% SwStr%), and an elite curveball (23.5% SwStr%). There are no questions about his performance when he’s healthy, and the Dodgers gave him a vote of confidence with the trade and extension.
Glasnow gets drafted around SP10 off the board, and I have no doubts that if he makes 28 starts he’ll be a top-five SP. So I am in on him. It’s a bit risky to start your staff with him given the lack of a solid track record health-wise, but if you do get the full season from him after you start your draft with two elite hitters, you’re in business.
Hunter Greene, ADP 137
TLDR: Elite fastball, elite slider, K% above 30%. Not many pitchers have that going on. If he can improve a bit on command and get a little bit lucky, he’ll be a fantasy stud in 2024.
From the team preview:
He made only 22 starts last year, but finished the year healthy - so that is very good. It would seem he’ll be 100% for the start of the 2024 season, and he’s definitely a quite interesting pitcher for fantasy purposes.
The career so far:
46 GS, 237.2 IP, 4.62 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 30.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 1.6 HR/9
So that’s a very, very strong 21.4% K-BB%. He has 316 strikeouts in that 237.2 innings, this guy has massive upside and he’s already had some incredible outings in his career.
9/20/2023: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 14 K
5/26/2023: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 11 K, 2 BB
6/6/2022: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 0 BB
9/10/2023: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 9 K
8/15/2023: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 9 K
And I could go on. He’s also had plenty of really bad outings. One time he gave up five homers, and he’s had 4+ walks nine times in those 46 starts.
The story has been pretty simple with Greene so far. Lots of strikeouts, too many walks, and a good amount of homers allowed. The homer stuff tends to regress, but with a guy that throws mostly four-seamers and sliders in Cincinnati, you can certainly expect a high home run rate for him moving forward.
The arsenal is Strider-esque, in fact he was kind of Strider before Strider became a thing!
The command is nowhere near Strider-level, the comparison is just about the pitch mix and raw stuff being pretty similar. Greene’s Stuff+ is 131 (140 on the four-seamer, 126 on the slider). He’s very, very talented. Great SwStr% on the four-seamer, and a good (not elite) mark on the slider. If he he tunes up the slider and learns some better command, you could definitely be looking at one of the better pitchers in the entire league - so I’m interested in Greene for 2024.
In early drafts, he’s gone really low as the #36 SP off the board (ADP of 130). I think that’s one of the most exploitable prices that I’ve seen so far, so I think I’ll draft a good amount of Greene this year.
Bailey Ober, ADP 159
TLDR: Tons of whiffs, great command, has proven durable. Price is elevated a bit this year, but he’s still too cheap.
From the team preview:
Ober got a good bit of run in the Twins rotation and had a lot of success:
26 GS, 144 IP, 3.43 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 25% K%, 5% BB%, 1.4 HR/9
If you don’t know, this guy is 6’9’’, and that helps a pitcher a lot. The release point is so much closer to the hitter and it comes from a height that hitters just don’t see very often.
Highest SP Release Points, 2023
Garrett Whitlock
Tyler Glasnow
Gavin Williams
Logan Gilbert
Bailey Falter
Cody Bradford
Tylor Megill
Bailey Ober
Zack Wheeler
Pablo Lopez
That helps the stuff play up, and we saw that happen in 2023 with the 25% K% and the 15.2% SwStr% despite the 81 Stuff+.
So don’t worry as much about the low Stuff+ there, and we should be pretty excited about the command being as good as it was. His career walk rate now is 5%, which is elite - so the command is a definite skill of his.
In his minor league career:
14 GS, 29.4% K%, 6.9% BB%, 2.78 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
He is mostly fastball and changeup, with just 26% usage left over for the slide and curveball.
The fastball plays extremely well with that extension and command. That was the seventh-highest SwStr% on a four-seamer last season. And boy do I like a pitcher that can get whiffs with the four-seamer.
Ober is checking all of the boxes right now, so he’s another guy I’m going to be much higher on than other people.
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