Buys & Sells from All 30 Teams - NL
Highlighting buys and sells from all 15 National League teams for the second half of the fantasy baseball season
I’m going to regret starting this, but I’m going to power through it. We’re going through all 30 teams and picking at least one buy and at least one sell for the second half, and I’ll add extra commentary where it suits me.
Midway through I decided to split this into two posts - one for each league. So we start with the National League. Off we go!
NL East
Braves
Buy: Austin Riley
The ball started going over the fence in the last few weeks. Five homers and an .871 OPS over his last 76 PA. The track record is too good to think he won’t have a good second half, and he’s one of the most valuable HR+RBI bats in the league if that happens. No steals, middling batting average at best - but he’s definitely a buy-low right now.
Sell: Bryce Elder
2.97 ERA but a 4.13 xFIP. The K-BB% is just 10.6%, similar to names like Josiah Gray, Drew Smyly, Johan Oviedo. That’s not exactly fair because Elder does have this 56% GB% driven by his very good sinker, but he’s simply not a 3.00 ERA guy and I have a feeling you’ll see that bloat soon.
Mets
Buys: Pete Alonso, Francisco Alvarez
I will try to avoid talking about stud players as “buys”, because you basically can’t do that in fantasy - but it’s important to highlight Alonso’s league-worst .186 BABIP. He’s still barreling a ton (14.8% Brl%) and limiting strikeouts (21%), so with some better fortune in BABIP, he’ll be one of the most valuable hitters in the league in the second half. Again, I doubt you can really acquire him right now, but maybe you can move a Josh Jung or someone like that for him.
As for Alvarez, it seems like a good time to let it fly on him. He had a very good stretch, followed by a very bad stretch, but he finished the first-half on the upswing, and with the talent he has he could certainly be a top-five catcher in the second half.
Sell: Justin Verlander
I’m not overly confident with this, and it’s tough to get a lot for a 40 year old with a 3.60 ERA, but Verlander has looked pretty bad this year. His 44.4% Strike% is bad, the 10.7% SwStr% is really bad, and neither of those bode well for him raising the K% much above 20% - which would be pretty devastating for him.
Phillies
Buy: Aaron Nola
No, it’s not Trea Turner! I’m doubting the Turner owner wants to give much of a discount on him given the long history of greatness he’s given, but you might be able to get a deal for Nola who had a less than fantastic first half. The 24% K% is concerning, and so is the 12.5% SwStr%. Those numbers suggest he won’t get back near the 30% K% we’ve seen from him in the past, but he’s had spells like this only to bounce back from them and be dominant, and he just has so many pitches in the arsenal that I’ll always want to buy into him after he struggles a bit.
I’d also be interested in taking the discount on Bryce Harper. Good chance the Harper owner thinks he’s just not healthy yet after the surgery. That’s pretty likely, but it’s also possible that’s not the whole story, he gets healthy and goes off like normal in the second half.
Sell: Brandon Marsh
All things considered, he had a pretty decent first half, but it’s such a rollercoaster ride with him that I wouldn’t want to put him in a lineup. He’s had long stretches of being arguably the worst hitter in the league in the past, and he had one of those this year with a K% north of 50% for a little bit there. He will have some big weeks, but I think overall he’s not someone we want in fantasy.
Overall, I pretty much want to buy everyone on the Phillies. Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Nola, and Wheeler are all guys I’d want to acquire for the second half.
Marlins
Buy: Jorge Soler
You know how many players have a Brl% above 15% and a K% below 25% this year? Four! And yes, Soler is one of them. The other three are Acuna, Ohtani, and Adolis Garcia - good company there. We have seen this from Soler before, and he hasn’t ever been able to keep it up for long periods of time, but right now he’s one of the best power hitters in the league and you can almost surely get him pretty cheap given his history.
Sell: Jesus Luzardo
This one could bite me, but I just don’t believe in his 5.9% BB%. He was at 11% in 2021 and 9% in 2022, so this is a big improvement. It could be legit, certainly - he’s still young and very talented, but this just fits the general rule of always looking to sell a player when they reach the peak of their fantasy value.
Nationals
Buy: MacKenzie Gore
He now has a 4.42 ERA on the year, and a 5.12 ERA over his last 8 starts. That is despite actually dropping his walk rate lately. Over these last 8, he has just a 7.3% BB% - which is good. Over that time, the K% has slipped slightly but it’s still strong at 27%. The problem has been hard contact and the long ball, and we know those things are really sticky. I think there’s a good chance he manages a K-BB% around 20% in the second half while the hard contact stuff regresses toward the mean, and that would make him a very good pitcher.
Sell: Lane Thomas
Yeah, pretty easy one here but I’m jumping on it. The .844 OPS towers above his career .762 mark, and nothing else under the hood has improved anywhere near that same kind of magnitude.
NL Central
Reds
Buy: Nick Lodolo
Lodolo has had a miserable season this year, making him a guy that should be easy to acquire. He sits with a 6.29 ERA and he’s been on the IL since the second week of May. The reason for the buy is that he was just so, so unlucky at the beginning of the year as evidenced by his 3.75 xFIP and .435 BABIP against. Buy!
Sell: Spencer Steer
I think Steer is good, and I want to stress that I’m talking about keeper or dynasty leagues here at all. I just see the home run production being a little bit inflated right now. His 4.5% Brl/PA is well behind his 3.7% HR/PA (shown below), and he still will have to play half of his games away from Cincinnati. At this very moment, he might be one of these guys who is better in real life than in fantasy due to the middling power and speed combo.
I would also sell Elly De La Cruz if you can get a first-round-ish return, which you just might be able to - but that’s obviously a best-case scenario and not very fun, and this game is about fun at the end of the day.
Brewers
Buy: Willy Adames
Not a good first half for him with the .213 batting average and .416 SLG, but the 16 homers are okay and he’s still barreling the ball a bunch (14%) while keeping the K% to a decent level (25%). With some luck, he could have a super valuable second half and you can get him pretty cheap now as that batting average has to be tough to look at for the Adames owner.
Sell: Christian Yelich
He has a 57% GB% this year, which makes me doubt he’ll hit 10 more homers in the second-half. He’s gotten it done so far with runs and steals, but I think he’s over-performed at least a little bit (.349 BABIP). I could see a pretty disappoitning second half coming, and right now he’s valued as a top 20 or so outfielder.
Cubs
Buy: Seiya Suzuki
He’s one of my biggest buy-lows overall right now. He has a strong 50% hard-hit rate with a fine 25% K% and an 8.9% Brl%. He just hasn’t hit many fly balls, but he’s not far away from that - it’s not like he’s pounding the ball into the ground with a GB% of 45%. I really like his ability to make contact at a high rate while hitting the ball quite hard, and I think he’s a standard league starter for the second half - and he’s probably on waivers in a ton of leagues.
Sell: Marcus Stroman
Any time a pitcher with a K% under 25% has an ERA under 3.00, I’m running for the hills. His K:BB is barely over 2, and he has a career-best .255 BABIP right now. Easy sell.
Pirates
Buy: Jack Suwinski
I just love this guy. You’re going to have some major ups and downs, obviously, but I think that could eventually even out because he’s clearly making better swing decision this year with a 16% BB% and a low 16% Chase%. Even with the high K%, he’s in fantastic company with the Brl/PA and HR/PA. And he’s also stealing some bags - Jack could really explode here in the second half and set himself up to be a top-25 OF pick next year.
Sell: Mitch Keller
His K% has been declining, but it’s still inflated. He has benefited from called strikes more than anyone else. This stat isn’t competely random, it’s definitely a skill some pitchers can have if they have fantastic command and a bunch of different pitches, and Keller has both of those things going - but I don’t think he’s the guy we saw in the first half.
Cardinals
Buy: Jordan Walker
Maybe the hype is still there enough to make him a tough guy to acquire, but the season hasn’t gone amazingly well for him so far in terms of fantasy value delieverd. He has just eight homers and three steals, so he hasn’t been winning anybody any weeks. The plus is that he’s not striking out and getting the ball in the air more and more as the years goes on, so the sky is the limit with his raw power.
Sell: Nolan Arenado?
I don’t really mean this. The first half was so bad for the Cardinals that they don’t really have anybody you can sell-high on. They’re a good team to buy-low from. That said, if the offense does continue to sputter around Arenado, the RBI production could fall off a bit - and that’s really his main calling card for fantasy. He hits a good but not great amount of home runs, has a middling batting average, and doesn’t steal bases - so there’s not a ton of downside to jumping off of him for someone with more upside or a strong pitcher if you need one.
NL West
Dodgers
Buy: Bobby Miller
It hasn’t gone super well for Miller lately, but I’m buying in for the rest of the year. He has a lot of innings left in the tank (he threw 112 last year and is at just 58 this year), and the stuff is so just so good. He has so many different pitches and they’re all strong - I think this is a guy who can turn into an ace pretty quickly if he makes some steps forward. He has five pitches above a 10% usage, and four of them have double-digit SwStr%, and he hasn’t had big issues with throwing strikes or anything - so it’s a solid base profile and the upside is huge.
Sell: Will Smith
There aren’t a lot of good sell optoins on this team, but I would say that Smith, for fantasy, is probably a little bit over-valued. So far he’s returned $9.65 in a 5x5 league, not very high above a guy like Salvador Perez at $8.12. He doesn’t steal bases (1) and his home run production has always been more “good” than “great”. He’s also playing much less than in previous years, he’s not getting any reps at DH, and the Dodgers certainly want to save him for the playoffs - so I just think he’s a bit overrated in fantasy and you can probably get a nice return for him and then find a decent replacement option at catcher. You can certainly find someone who will play a lot more than Smith at the catcher position.
Diamondbacks
Buy: Merrill Kelly
Nobody really stands out on this team as a buy. Everybody is pretty much performing as expected or better, but I could see buying in on Kelly for the second half. Despite the strong first half he posted, I doubt the Kelly owner in your league is holding on super tight to him given his previous history of pretty much “meh” for fantasy. But Kelly has looked better this year in our favorite categories, he has a 13.5% SwStr% and a 46% GB%. He’s not a Cy Young contender or anything like that, but he’s a reliable arm that you can plug into your fantasy lineup - and you can probably get him for one of these younger upside arms that are pretty likely to fail in the second half.
Sell: Lourdes Gurriel
A veteran player (although he’s only 29) coming off the best half season of baseball of his career, that makes for an obvious sell candidate. Not sure anyone in your league will take the bait, but it’s worth trying.
Padres
Buy: Joe Musgrove
Very slow start to the year for Musgrove, but he’s rounded into shape and now sits with a 49.2% Strike%, a 13.3% SwStr%, and a 32.9% Ball%. Those are great numbers, and it’s turned into a 19% K-BB%, very strong. Over his last seven starts, he has a 24% K-BB% - so he’s pitching incredibly well. He might be a near fantasy ace, and I don’t think it would take that kind of price to acquire him right now.
Sell: Blake Snell
Any time any pitcher goes on a run like Snell has gone on (9 GS, 4 ER, 84 K, 22 BB), it’s time to consider selling high. Snell has a 41% K% over these last nine starts, which just isn’t going to continue. Obviously, it doesn’t have to continue at that pace for him to still be very good, but the downside here is much worse than “oh maybe he’ll just be very good instead of elite”. The downside is that he kills your fantasy team’s WHIP for the season’s final 2+ months. Snell’s throwing more balls and fewer strikes than ever before, so I would be pretty worried that things are going to derail here - I’d get the highest return you can get right now.
Giants
Buy: Patrick Bailey
There really hasn’t been much talk about this kid, but he’s slashing .293/.320/.493 with a 12.6% Brl% and a 26.7% K% on the year. That’s pretty solid stuff from a cathcer that is probably on your waiver wire.
Sell: Thairo Estrada
He had an unreal start to the year, and then a little downturn, and then a really good couple of weeks before really hitting the bottom here recently.I want to look at the season as a whole. Estrada was drafted for steals, but you’ve gotten more than that from him this year. But the power doesn’t seem to really be there with just a 5.6% Brl% and a 34% Hard-Hit%. I think the nine homers is likely inflated, and he also may have benefited a good bit from this high .340 BABIP.
Rockies
Buy: Kris Bryant
He’s healthy again (for now), but he has done almost nothing for us in fantasy this year. It’s been a disaster for the last couple of years, but he did have an elite run of hitting the ball last year - and I think that’s still in the range of possible outcomes. He could be a very useful hitter in the second half, and his fantasy value has to be near an all-time low right now.
Sell: Nolan Jones
I will pass on any young guy with a 34% K%, which Jones has. He’ll have some big games - but I think it will be much more negative than positive given the whiff-heavy ways (69% Contact%). He’s also not running as much as we thought he would at an 11% SB Att%, that’s about the same attempt rate as Andrew McCutchen and Freddie Freeman - not guys you really depend on for steals in the 2023 context.
And I have completed the National League! I will be back tomorrow at some point with the American League list before the games get rolling again tomorrow night! Subscribe today! And hey feel free to send me a cash tip if you’re appreciating the free content, baby - I won’t turn you down!
