Comparing 2024 Projections vs. April Results (Hitters)
Looking back on the 2024 projections and looking at the biggest differences in actual performance from April.
This analysis was inspired by Dan Szymborski and this tweet:
We stare at projections all winter and then by the end of April we forget all about them. And that’s the wrong way to do it. Prior to seeing that tweet, I had never thought about what mixture we should put into it, but seeing that number is illuminating. Preseason projections are much, much better at predicting what a hitter will do in a given season than what that player does in April. Projections beat real-life data when you don’t have enough real life data.
So that made me want to write a post and record a podcast about which players have been the biggest differences in projected stats vs. actual April stats. Here’s the podcast episode which has a lot of what you’ll read below plus some extras. Check out the podcast page here:
Given the math that Dan shows, we should be buying on the slow starts and selling on the fast starts. That’s pretty obvious if you’re a seasoned fantasy baseball player, but it’s easier to know than to put into practice. It’s hard to buy a player sitting there with a .180 batting average or one homer in 120 plate appearances, but the math says that’s exactly what you should be doing.
Some considerations, first
Health is a big factor here. If a player is hurt or potentially hurt, you have to re-evaluate. The projection will not have accounted for that injury.
Projections on young players are much worse. I would imagine that “6% April” mark would be much higher for rookies or second-year players, just because the projection was working with much less data and therefore was less reliable. This isn’t proven, I don’t think even Dan has studied that, but I am confident it’s true to some degree just by using some common sense, and it’s not even non-mathematical sense either.
Since fantasy baseball is a multi-category game, we’ll break this down three ways
Power (Homers)
Speed (Stolen Bases)
Batting Average (… batting average)
I typically prepare a data sheet for these kinds of analysis, and when I’m feeling very generous I let anybody have it. This data won’t be very useful in a few weeks, therefore I’ll let you all have it for free.
Talking is quicker than writing, so I’m going to cover much more detail from each category on the podcast. Check that out for full details, I’ll give you 3 or so names in each section here.
Power
Under-Performers
I’m using rates here to get rid of playing time issues. So I look at how many homers each player was projected for and how many they’ve hit across a 600 PA sample.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Pretty shocking to imagine Acuna playing a month and hitting just one homer. We do have the health questions here given the scare he had in March, so I can’t say confidently I’d still value him as the clear top player in the fantasy game. Given what he did last year, I doubt anybody is giving him up without a huge return, but yeah I mean if you can find some overly-emotional person (maybe there’s a woman in your league?), I’d buy-low on Acuna. I think I’d give up any hitter besides Bobby Witt Jr., Mookie Betts, or Shohei Ohtani for him right now.
Spencer Torkelson
He’s not hurt, but he does fall into that “young” category where it’s tougher to know what is coming. Tork is 24 with just two seasons worth of PA in the books so far, so we don’t know for sure who he is. But his OPS is down nearly 200 from last year while his K% has dropped substantially. I’m not sure he’s a 10-team league first baseman, but in deep leagues I’d be putting out some offers to buy very low on the big man.
Julio Rodriguez
April 2022: .205/.284/.260
April 2023: .239/.301/.442
April 2024: .256/.298/.308
.…..Career: .276/.334/.477
I’m not even really a believer in “slow starters”, but most people are - so you’re not going to be fool any experienced fantasy player with a buy-low offer on J-Rod.
Quick Verdicts On The Rest
McCormick: Wasn’t a believer at first, but he’s not this bad. Buy-low in deep leagues, let him go to waivers in shallow.
O’Hoppe: This is probably a case of my projection just being way too hot. Young player, uncertain abilities, but I’d still value him as a borderline ten-team league catcher.
Velazquez: He’s an empty power player, and the power isn’t there. Even if it’s not there “yet”, he’s still not a game-changer for fantasy. Ignore him.
Buxton: The skills have been all over the place the last few years, and the Twins aren’t even starting him everyday. He’s an avoid.
Seager: Slow start likely attributable to the missed spring, a definite buy-low if you can. I’d take at a second-round value.
Vaughn: What’s the point you know? In a 20-team league then yeah he should be started, but he’s not going to hit 25 homers, steal any bases, or drive in a ton of runs.
Riley: Big-time buy low here if possible.
Suwinski: Not playing against lefties, but some really encouraging signs with the strikeout. I like him as a 15-team add.
Olson: Same as Riley, I value both of these guys exactly the same as I did coming in.
Jones: I think this is the guy to take a chance on, whether that means trading for him on the cheap or adding him off waivers. You couldn’t ask for a much worse start to his season, but the upside is unchanged as we head toward the warm-weather Denver summer.
Torres: He’s another guy who has been really hard to predict in his career, but he’s never had a truly awful fantasy season. Good buy-low here, but he’s never been much of an upside fantasy player.
Siri: Decent HR/SB contributor but prone to horrifying slumps and will hurt your team’s batting average. Fine 15-team roto player, but not much else.
Taylor: Shouldn’t be owned.
Drury: Might be banged up, he’s older (31), and the Angels are a disaster now once again without Trout. You can pass on him.
CES: Tough projection there with his half-season of career MLB PAs, but I’d scoop him up in 12-teamers or greater if dropped. I still feel good about him getting to 25 homers this year.
Gorman: He’s an empty power bat, but I don’t question the ability to hit homers. I value him the same as before.
Listen to the free podcast for more players covered in detail.
Over-Performers
Tyler O’Neill
Hard not to call him a sell-high at this point. He’s beating his career OPS by like 350 points and people really go for that “change of scenery” crap.
Brandon Marsh
Ever since he’s joined the Phillies he’s had huge months and horrible months all mixed together. He’s coming off of a very good month and still striking out 32% of the time, I’m selling high if possible.
Gunnar Henderson
He probably won’t have another month this season with 16 HR+SB, but that doesn’t mean I’d be looking to bail on him. The talent is outrageous, he’s 22 years old and has been improving rapidly ever since debuting. I think he’s a first-round pick next year. Would I trade him for Ronald Acuna Jr. or Julio Rodriguez right now? Yes, but there’s probably not five other hitters I’d take over him.
Taylor Ward
You’re probably not going to fetch a great return for him, but yeah I’d be fine selling high at this point. The Trout injury hurts the whole team and we’ve never seen anything near the 15% Brl% on Ward that we’re seeing now (except in small spurts), so I think there’s a downward slope coming.
Daulton Varsho
He’s pretty young at age 27 and did have that 10.2% Brl% in 2022, so I can believe he’s closer to a 30-homer bat rather than his projected 20-homers. But he’s very volatile with his strikeouts and heavy fly ball rate. I wouldn’t be trying too hard to get rid of him, but nonetheless he qualifies as a guy who is probably near the top of his value right now.
Edouard Julien
Another young player who was really hard to project. He strikes outs and walks a ton, so he doesn’t put many balls in play - but ever since he arrived the barrels have been coming when he does make contact (14% career). In a non-OBP league, I’d sell high. But he’s a nice bat in OBP leagues, and there’s big time upside given his age (25), prospect pedigree, and skillset.
Quick Verdicts On The Rest
Carter: Weird player, I don’t know how to evaluate. He’s similar to Julien without quite as much raw power. Good to see the low K% this year (23%), but I still think he’s a little over-valued after the big performances under the World Series lights last year.
Bellinger: He’s currently hurt, so hard to make a move on.
Naylor: He’s always been a very impressive hitter, but I don’t think he’s the type of guy to have many seven-homer months. The lack of steals and yet the fact that he’s probably the #1 1B on your league’s player rater make him a pretty good sell-high right now, but the floor with him is very good so you don’t have to take a return you’re not excited about for him.
Greene: I’m a believer. He was a guy I was expecting to crush his projection, and he’s done that so far. The FB% is way up 28%, and that’s really all he needed to do. Hold Greene.
Perez: Crushing the ball again, but hard to trust him a guy who is about to turn 34 and still catching several games a week health-wise. I’d definitely be trying to exchange him.
Langeliers: The fact that he’s hitting .176 and on the Athletics means you aren’t going to be able to trade him for anything useful. You probably only have him in a 15-teamer or two-catcher league, and if that’s the case just ride it out and enjoy the homers.
Speed
Under-Performers
Nico Hoerner
Pretty brutal month for Hoerner across the board, hitting just .252/.328/.333 with no homers and one steal. The attempt rate is down, but it’s not horrible at 9%. He’s lost his job at the top of the lineup, but he could regain that. His K% is 9.6% and the xBA is up at .291, so there should be more base knocks and therefore steals coming. Good buy-low option if you need some steals.
Willi Castro
This one is weird. Last year Castro swiped 33 bases in limited playing time (409 PAs) on a 36% attempt rate. This year, he’s playing most every day and yet has just two steals so far and the attempt rate is cut in half. I’m not sure how many of his attempts last year came from pinch-running appearances, but that probably plays into it a bit. He only has 72nd-percentile sprint speed, and that is down a tick almost a full mile per hour from last year:
So that might explain some of it. I don’t feel all that good right now about Castro’s steals outlook.
Cody Bellinger
Maybe it’s an either/or with Bellinger. You either get the elevated home run total or the elevated steals total. He had zero steal attempts in his 97 PAs before getting hurt, kind of concerning there - but he did make up for it with those five homers. I have no idea what to expect from Bellinger rest of the year, sorry.
Thairo Estrada
Here’s a guy that’s hurting you pretty bad this year if you drafted him late to save yourself in steals. He has just one on one attempt, and a .229 batting average to boot. You would think that would mean if he raises the batting average, the steals will get back to normal, but the attempt rate is way down when he’s been on base too. So I don’t know. He’s only 28, and it doesn’t look like he’s lost any speed, so I think the steals will come eventually.
Evan Carter
Skipping a few names to get to more interesting players. Carter has just two steals in his first 105 PAs. He only stole three in last year’s 75 PAs, but the attempt rate is down from 15% to 9%. He has five homers, and the K% is down to 23%, so it’s mostly good news for Carter, but yeah maybe we over-projected his steals total this year.
Ke’Bryan Hayes
He has one homer and no steal attempts. His ten steals and high 14.5% SB Attempt% salvaged his fantasy value a bit last year, but without any steals Hayes is a pretty tough dude to start. He was initially hitting #3 in the lineup, while he’s typically been at the top or the bottom, so maybe that has something to do with it. I’m holding Hayes in deep leagues and cutting him loose in shallow leagues, and not trying to trade for him in any situation - just too many years of being a crappy fantasy player now.
Over-Performers
Elly De La Cruz
The projection was too low, I’ll admit it. He’s not going to steal 90 bags this year, but yeah he might steal 60. You’re holding on as tight as you can to Elly right now.
Lane Thomas
This is sure to slow down. He’s a veteran who has always stolen some bags but not a ton. He’s running absolutely wild this year at a 54.5% attempt rate, and I really don’t think that sticks around for long. It’s also amazing to see the 11 setals given his .250 OBP.
Luis Rengifo
Two dingers and nine bags for Rengifo, who started the year not even as an everyday player. But he’s playing most days of the week now and he’s a useful fantasy player in deep leagues. I’m not sure about the 38% attempt rate and 60-steal pace, but maybe he can work his way to 25-30 steals.
Mookie Betts
He is getting on base so much (.477 OBP) that the steals were going to come. The 14.8% attempt rate is up significant from last year’s 9%, and that’s great news. I don’t imagine it sticks though. There’s not a ton of incentive to steal with Ohtani and Freeman behind you, and he won’t maintain a .480 OBP for very long (.408 last year).
Spencer Steer
He had an incredible first couple of weeks but slowed down to a .797 OPS (still very good). He has seven steals, almost halfway to his 2023 total of 15. His attempt rate has doubled from 10% to 20%, but I still view him as a 15-steal pace rather than 25. Decent sell option here.
Wilyer Abreu
Not sure where the steals are coming from with his 27th-percentile speed, so that’s a big enough red flag for me to not count on many more steals coming. But you didn’t draft him or pick him up for those purposes anyways
Batting Average
Under-Performers
Batting average is pretty random month-to-month, so we expect pretty much everybody on both of these lists to regress toward the mean moving forward.
I’d be most worried about the young guys (Meadows, Jones, Encarnacion-Strand, Keith), since we really don’t know if they can hack it all in the Major Leagues.
We also have to worry a bit more about the older guys (Garver, Diaz, Drury, Renfroe, Bell, Polanco, Castellanos) just because they might be losing some physical ability due to the age.
The guys that are pretty easy to not worry about here:
Arozarena, Carroll, Diaz, Bichette, Judge, Thomas
The guys I’d be panicking a bit about (in terms of batting average only):
Meadows, Jones, Encarnacion-Strand, Keith
In standard leagues it’s fine to cut Meadows, Keith, Castellanos, Bell, Renfroe, Drury, and Noda if they’re owned. I also don’t think it’s crazy at all to cut Yandy Diaz in a non-OBP or points league, he just isn’t a great roto player even whe he’s going well.
More on all of this during the podcast!
Over-Performers
This is just a list of super-high batting averages facilitated by lower K% and higher BABIPs (generally). We get into that during the podcast (I keep saying that…). Quick hits though:
Bohm: .411 BABIP is bound to plummet, but the 15% K% and high LD% is great.
Perez: 11% K% currently, there’s no way that stays under 20% for long given his 23% mark for the last two seasons, but he’s still hitting the ball very hard, so he might stay above .250.
Doyle: .418 BABIP (.515 at home, .324 on the road) and a 31% K%. Not good.
Contreras: Crushing the ball (55% hard hit%), but a still much-too-high-to-believe .407 BABIP. He does not pop the ball up very much, so I believe in a .270+ batting average, but no he’s not a .300+ hitter in all likelihood.
Altuve: Not a terribly high BABIP at .362, and still not striking out (13.5%). He should maintain a really nice batting average this year.
Pena: Has droped the K% to 14% and is hitting the ball a bit harder at 42%. .366 BABIP willc oem down, but he’s been a line-drive hitter and has looked better this year.
Winn: That was just a dumb projection, not sure what happened there, ignore that.
Turang: .346 BABIP, and it might stay about that high with his foot speed and high GB% (55%). Add the 14% K% to that and you definitely have a high batting average player (if those things stick).
Abreu: His second appearance in “over-performers”, he has a .407 BABIP, a 24% K%, and a .313 xwOBA - so there’s nothing overly impressive here. There are bumpier roads ahead for Wilyer.
Writing is tiring, man. And this podcast wore me out too. I just went and recorded it between typing these last two sentences. Lots of work went into this, so I hope it’s better quality than I feel like it is.
But anyways, the general rule here is clear - do not react much at all to April results, keep trusting those season-long projections and take advantage of people who aren’t.