Crater Pairing Analysis
I look at which later-round pairs of players go well together for category-based fantasy baseball leagues
After the first two or three rounds, all of the five-category contributors are gone. From then on, you have to mix and match. There are a lot of different ways to build a good rotisserie fantasy baseball team, but there are probably even more bad ways.
One way to build a losing offense is to get too much of one category and not enough of another. Out-homering the rest of your league by 100 is just as good as out-homering them by one. If you’re first in homers but last in batting average, that averages out to be a middle-of-the-pack team, and those teams don’t win championships!
We have to be proficient at roster construction to win fantasy leagues, and that’s what I’m here to talk about today.
I use the term “crater” to describe a player that kills our fantasy team in a given category. You could say that Kyle Schwarber is a batting average and steals crater, and I do say that!
Let’s rip through some later-round player pairings that make for pretty nice across-the-board aggregate production.
The best way to do this is probably to showcase the specialists. I’ll go into six categories and show you the guys who excel at each, ignoring the top 50 or so draft picks just so we’re not showing the same studs over and over again.
Runs & RBI
I will start with runs and RBI because they’re the toughest ones to fit in here. These two categories are very dependent on the lineup spot and team context, and those two things can change in a hurry. Projections will always be less accurate when they are projecting something that depends on factors outside of a player’s control. For that reason, I’m not recommending pairs of players based on these two categories, but just to give you some later-round players that project very well in these two.
Runs
Taylor Ward (90 runs, 198 ADP): He should be at the top of a lineup that could be decent, and he’s proven to be a competent hitter at the highest level.
Ian Happ (87 runs, 139 ADP): Same story as Ward. Competent lead-off man on an improving offense.
Matt Chapman (86 runs, 141 ADP): Plays every day and stays in the top third of the lineup.
Yandy Diaz (83 runs, 219 ADP): Should once again serve as the lead-off hitter, and has never had issues getting on base.
Luis Arraez (83 runs, 191 ADP): Elite OBP guy in a very good lineup.
Jung Hoo Lee (83 runs, 255 ADP): I’m excited about what the guy can do with health. He is an elite contact hitter with speed, and that makes him the obvious choice to lead off in San Francisco.
Willi Castro (80 runs, 247 ADP): He’s currently the best bet to lead-off for the Twins, and they have not shown any interest in adding to the roster so far this offseason.
Masyn Winn (80 runs, 174 ADP): You’re hoping the Cardinals lineup can stay out of “disaster” territory, and his OBP projection isn’t great (.308), but he is good with the bat and will be at the top of that lineup without question.
RBI
Anthony Santander (96 RBI, 100 ADP): Will surely end up in a clean-up spot somewhere!
Christian Walker (95 RBI, 106 ADP): He’s not super cheap, but he should have plenty of RBI opportunities in Houston.
Junior Caminero (91 RBI, 100 ADP): Huge power, should be the #3 hitter.
Vinnie Pasquantino (90 RBI, 113 ADP): Not a ton of homers, but a lot of singles and doubles behind Bobby Witt Jr.
Triston Casas (86 RBI, 112 ADP): I’m a big believer in the power, and the top of the Red Sox lineup is very strong.
Matt Chapman (84 RBI, 141 ADP): Repeat of above!
Adolis Garcia (83 RBI, 143 ADP): I’m betting on the Rangers bouncing back and being a solid lineup, and Garcia can still drive the ball.
Paul Goldschmidt (83 RBI, 197 ADP): The skills are disappearing, but he gets a park and lineup upgrade in New York.
Nick Castellanos (83 RBI, 177 ADP): Another year in the 5-6 hole in Philly.
Riley Greene (82 RBI, 114 ADP): One of my favorite later-round HR and RBI picks.
Andrew Vaughn (81 RBI, 285 ADP): Horrible team context, obviously, but he’s a good hitter in the middle of a lineup.
Jorge Soler (78 RBI, 220 ADP): The Angels have a good lineup when they’re all healthy, and Soler can still hit the long ball.
Cody Bellinger (78 RBI, 116 ADP): Could pop up to 25+ homers with the new park.
My favorite price-considered pairing of these names would be Jung Hoo Lee + Andrew Vaughn. That would cost you something like a 20th-round pick and a 23rd-round pick. And that duo would project for this line:
164 runs, 28 homers, 147 RBI, 15 SB, .265 AVG
That’s about 1.3 Mookie Betts’s. I like it! But now, let’s move on to the more easily projected categories.