DENVER @ SEATTLE SHOWDOWN BREAKDOWN
NFL DFS SHOWDOWN
What a fun Sunday of games the NFL provided us with yesterday. Hope everyone enjoyed the slate and the games. We are now on to the Monday Night Showdown slate. Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos head to Seattle to take on his former team in the Seahawks as 6.5 point road favorites, in a game featuring a 43.5 point total.
A lot is up in the air with this one, and we will want to target the uncertainties that our opponents will most likely avoid. As I did last week, I will go over my top overall plays for the slate, my favorite value options on a $/point basis, some “dart throws” for salary relief at low ownership, as well as tackling a little more of a strategy approach to our roster construction.
If you haven’t joined Jon's DK contests yet, what are you doing? Come join with fellow subscribers in our $5 contest. Link is below
TOP PLAYS
RUSSELL WILSON. SALARY: $11,800. PROJ: 19.98
The slate’s clear #1 option tonight. The “Let Russ Cook” movement begins tonight in Denver. Russ finally is released from the grips of Pete Carroll and joins Denver and new HC Nathaniel Hackett who are littered with fantasy friendly options. When rostering Russ tonight we will want to consider his pass catchers in Jeudy and Sutton vs rostering the RB’s.
COURTLAND SUTTON. SALARY: $9,400. PROJ: 13.92
My bet to be the WR1 in Denver. Sutton’s big play ability lands him at #2 in my rankings, and I prefer him much more than Jeudy when forced to choose between the two. Sutton lead his team last year in target share (19.3%), air yards share (36.1%), and end-zone targets with 7. This was with the likes of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater behind center, and expect Sutton’s potential to skyrocket now with Russ. I also expect Sutton to be lower owned than Jeudy, simply due to price. This allows us to “pay up to be contrarian” and in my opinion have the better option between the two.
RASHAAD PENNY. SALARY: $7,800. PROJ: 11.16
Kenneth Walker is officially out, leaving Rashaad Penny to receive the majority of the work on the ground tonight. We all know Pete Carroll’s style of football by now, and he loves to lean into the run. Penny is likely to succeed some pass game work to DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer, capping his upside, but I do believe that Penny can be in optimal lineups based on volume alone, as well as his talent. Penny was arguably the best RB in football at the end of the year last year, averaging 18 carries for 113 yards and nearly a TD a game in team’s final 5 games. I saw all I needed to see in preseason with Geno Smith, and feel much more confident playing Seattle through the ground.
VALUE PLAYS:
KJ HAMLER. SALARY: $4,400. PROJ: 8.40
With the unfortunate loss of Tim Patrick this off-season, this opens the door wide open for Hamler to take over as Denver’s WR3. Hamler offers big play upside, playing in only 3 games last year, but producing a 20.1 ADOT (average depth of target). Player’s like Hamler are who we want to target on showdown slates, who can get there with one deep TD. I will want to target Hamler in my Russ lineups, with either 1 of Jeudy or Sutton.
TYLER LOCKETT. SALARY: $7,000. PROJ: 12.11
Tyler Lockett seems to be the forgotten WR of the off-season. Priced at $1,400 cheaper than DK Metcalf, and with the ability to easily out target/produce DK, I think Tyler Lockett is under priced. Especially with the lack of target competition in Seattle, and them projected to be playing from behind most of this game, Lockett will earn enough targets to pay off his price tag. Lockett was able to earn targets with Geno Smith over a 3 game sample size last year, earning 8 targets per game to DK’s 6.
BRANDON MCMANUS / JASON MYERS. SALARY: $4,200 / $4,000. PROJ: 8.61 / 7.82
My weekly don’t forget about the Kicker’s piece. As you can see in Jon’s projections, both Myers and McManus project as the best value plays on the slate. With a low total tonight of 43.5, a few FG’s from either of these guys could lead them into optimal rosters. We saw this was possible just last night, with Ryan Succop and the Buccaneers.
DART THROWS:
WILL DISSLY. SALARY: $800. PROJ: 3.85
This off-season the Seahawks gave Dissly an absurd 3yr $24mil contract. With Noah Fant now in town, he is favored to be the TE1 and run the most routes. However, due to preseason usage, it doesn’t seem all that clear and wouldn’t be insane if Dissly out snaps Fant, especially in week 1 when Dissly is still more familiar in this offense.
DEEJAY DALLAS. SALARY: $400. PROJ: 2.87
Likely to play on obvious pass downs tonight, and split work with Travis Homer. In roster constructions that heavily favor the Broncos, its not the worst idea to target DeeJay who could catch a few more balls than projected and easily pay off this price tag.
LEVERAGE PLAYS:
MELVIN GORDON. SALARY: $7,400. PROJ: 10.79
Everyone seems sold on the idea that this is Javonte’s backfield. I imagine Melvin Gordon will come in very low owned compared to Javonte, yet he has the ability to outproduce him. Last year, Melvin out-snapped Javonte (51.4% - 50.7%) and even had a higher RedZone rushing share (48.6% - 35.5%). Playing Melvin instantly makes your lineup more unique, and gives you extra salary to pay up elsewhere.
GENO SMITH. SALARY: $8,600. PROJ: 13.5
I myself do not believe in Geno or this passing offense, but neither does the field. With unique builds of Geno CPT paired with Lockett + Metcalf, we can make a bet on this Seattle passing game at extremely low ownership, and get paid off if the “unthinkable” occurs.
ROSTER CONSTRUCTION IDEAS:
CPT: RUSS + 2 DENVER PASS CATCHERS (Jeudy or Sutton + Albert O or KJ Hamler)
When rostering our QB at the CPT spot we will want to make sure to pair him with two of his pass catchers. Especially with a QB like Russ who is more of a pocket passer, in order for Russ to be the optimal CPT tonight he will need to throw multiple TD’s and we want our roster to “tell that story” based on the construction.
CPT: SUTTON OR JEUDY + RUSS + LOCKETT
In a game where there is more scoring than projected, we should see more pass attempts. We will want to target more of the pass catcher’s on both sides in this construction who are more likely to “speed up the game” vs rostering any of the RB’s who would insinuate a slower paced game.
CPT: PENNY + RUSS + 2 BRONCOS PASS CATCHERS
For this build we can tell the story that Penny is the primary scorer for Seattle, which would then lead us to believe that the Broncos will be throwing more. We will want to make sure we avoid any other SEA RBs with this build, as we are betting on Penny being the optimal CPT.
BRONCOS 5-1 ONSLAUGHT
The roster construction here would indicate a Broncos blowout. The data shows that these roster constructions are only utilized by the field at a 16.8% usage rate, as it does feel uncomfortable to only roster 1 player on the opposing team. For these builds we will want to roster Denver’s D in the lineup, as we are making a big bet that Seattle will not produce offensively. I think something like
JAVONTE CPT + DENVER D + MCMANUS + ALBERT O + YOUR SEATTLE CHOICE is where I would start.
Best of luck to all! Thanks again as always for giving these a read. I have received some messages on Twitter with feedback and suggestions, and I greatly appreciate that. Again feel free to tweet me @JohnnyC1993 or email Jon with any feedback.