DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 4th

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

I’ve been getting into DFS this week, playing these $1 and $5 Hundo contests - so let’s do the DFS preview here free of charge.

DFS Preview

Potential weather issues

• Astros at Yankees

• Blue Jays at Red Sox

The two highest projected scoring games (Braves at Cubs, Nationals at Reds) are off the slate, and there is no Coors either. So we have no sort of “default” spots - which I always like a lot.

Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

ATL (vs. Kyle Hendricks): 81.23 Projected Points

CIN (vs. Patrick Corbin): 75.13 Projected Points

STL (vs. Chris Flexen): 74.22 Projected Points

PHI (vs. Jordan Lyles): 74.08 Projected Points

HOU (vs. Luis Severino): 73.95 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

DET (vs. Zack Littell): 52.12 Projected Points

CHC (vs. Max Fried): 57.34 Projected Points

COL (vs. Adam Wainwright): 59.73 Projected Points

LAA (vs. Luis Castillo): 60.72 Projected Points

CWS (vs. Logan Allen): 61.16 Projected Points

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Today Max Projection Players

Players with their highest projection of the season coming today

Reid Detmers: 19.42 Today, 17.62 Previous Max

Colin Rea: 14.34 Today, 14.18 Previous Max

Kyle Schwarber: 10.71 Today, 10.51 Previous Max

C.J. Abrams: 9.26 Today, 8.39 Previous Max

Keibert Ruiz: 8.08 Today, 8.08 Previous Max

Avisail Garcia: 7.26 Today, 7.23 Previous Max

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Pitchers - Top Plays

1. Luis Castillo $10,200 vs. LAA

2. Reid Detmers $8,200 vs. SEA

3. Hunter Brown $8,400 vs. NYY

4. Aaron Nola $10,000 vs. KC

5. Jesus Luzardo $9,500 vs. TEX

Pitchers - Punts

1. Quinn Priester $6,200 vs. MIL

2. Colin Rea $6,700 vs. PIT

3. Bobby Miller $7,500 vs. SD

Castillo + Brown/Detmers feels like a pretty good cash duo. I don’t mind going down to Rea for a tournament situation either - the Pirates can certainly be had. Priester is projecting decently but maybe that’s just because my model is giving him too much credit given the unknown. His walk rate has been egregious and he only has an 18% K% - so I would absolutely take a pass on him, but there’s a decent chance he goes for 15 points too - which would be good for his salary.

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Team Spots

Implied runs totals by the books

1. BOS 5.91

2. PHI 5.86

3. STL 5.57

4. MIL 5.09

5. BAL 4.99

SPs to target

• Adam Wainwright (vs. COL): 3.7% K-BB%, .404 xwOBA

• Chris Flexen (vs. STL): 3.7% K-BB%, .386 xwOBA

• Luis Severino (vs. HOU): 9.7% K-BB%, .378 xwOBA

• Alek Manoah (vs. BOS): 4.6% K-BB%, .373 xwOBA

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Catchers

1. Willson Contreras $3,700 vs. Chris Flexen

2. Danny Jansen $3,000 vs. James Paxton

3. J.T. Realmuto $4,800 vs. Jordan Lyles

4. William Contreras $4,900 vs. Quinn Priester

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First Base

1. Josh Bell $3,000 vs. Jordan Montgomery

2. Shohei Ohtani $6,500 vs. Luis Castillo

3. Ryan Mountcastle $3,800 vs. David Peterson

4. Bryce Harper $5,400 vs. Jordan Lyles

5. Paul Goldschmidt $5,700 vs. Chris Flexen

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Second Base

1. Nolan Gorman $4,100 vs. Chris Flexen

2. Jose Altuve $5,500 vs. Luis Severino

3. Dylan Moore $2,400 vs. Reid Detmers

4. Jake Burger $3,900 vs. Jordan Montgomery

5. Andres Gimenez $4,000 vs. Mike Clevinger

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Third Base

1. Jose Ramirez $5,600 vs. Mike Clevinger

2. Jake Burger $3,900 vs. Jordan Montgomery

3. Rafael Devers $5,100 vs. Alek Manoah

4. Eugenio Suarez $3,300 vs. Reid Detmers

5. Nolan Arenado $5,400 vs. Chris Flexen

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Shortstop

1. Francisco Lindor $5,200 vs. Dean Kremer

2. Tommy Edman $3,300 vs. Chris Flexen

3. Jeremy Pena $4,500 vs. Luis Severino

4. Corey Seager $6,100 vs. Jesus Luzardo

5. Tim Anderson $3,900 vs. Logan Allen

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Outfield

1. Kyle Schwarber $4,600 vs. Jordan Lyles

2. Aaron Judge $6,300 vs. Hunter Brown

3. Dylan Moore $2,400 vs. Reid Detmers

4. Teoscar Hernandez $3,200 vs. Reid Detmers

5. Kyle Tucker $5,700 vs. Luis Severino

6. Lars Nootbaar $4,400 vs. Chris Flexen

7. Yordan Alvarez $6,000 vs. Luis Severino

8. Jack Suwinski $3,600 vs. Colin Rea

9. Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,000 vs. Bobby Miller

10. Tyler O’Neill $3,500 vs. Chris Flexen

11. Shohei Ohtani $6,500 vs. Luis Castillo

12. Juan Soto $5,800 vs. Bobby Miller

13. Avisail Garcia $2,400 vs. Jordan Montgomery

14. Christian Yelich $5,300 vs. Quinn Priester

15. Trayce Thompson $2,300 vs. Logan Allen

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Lineups

#1 Model Top Plays

SP Detmers
SP Castillo
C Endy Rodriguez
1B Rivas
2B Duffy
3B Devers
SS Lindor
OF Schwarber
OF Nootbaar
OF Tucker

#2 Cardinals Stack with Pirates value

SP Detmers
SP Brown
C Willson
1B Rivas
2B Gorman
3B Arenado
SS Witt Jr.
OF Suwinski
OF Reynolds
OF Nootbaar

#3 Astros

SP Detmers
SP Miller
C Garver
1B Rivas
2B Altuve
3B Bregman
SS Rocchio
OF Yordan
OF Tucker
OF McCormick

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Okay, now we go to the game-by-game previews and we’ll hit the recommended bets at the bottom

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Game by Game Previews

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ATL @ CHC

Projected Game Score:

ATL 6.4 - CHC 3.6

ATL 64.0% To Win

Vegas O/U: 8.5

Projected Total: 10.0

2023 Pitcher Stats

Max Fried: 5 GS, 419 Pitches, 24.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, 14.3 SwStr%, 47.7 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%, 63.9 GB%, 4 Brl%

Kyle Hendricks: 12 GS, 1156 Pitches, 15.3 K%, 3.8 BB%, 8.1 SwStr%, 44.6 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%, 47.8 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Max Fried (ATL): 83 Pitches 4.98 IP, 4.8 H, 2.2 ER, 5.0 K, 1.2 BB, 14.2 FPts

Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 92 Pitches 5.36 IP, 6.5 H, 3.2 ER, 4.1 K, 1.3 BB, 9.55 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Max Fried - 4.5 strikeouts

Kyle Hendricks - 3.5 strikeouts

ATL Hitter Projections

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.: 4.5 PA, 1.28 H, 2.29 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.35 SB, 12.54 FPts

2. Ozzie Albies: 4.4 PA, 1.11 H, 1.96 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 9.26 FPts

3. Austin Riley: 4.3 PA, 1.16 H, 2.17 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.58 FPts

4. Matt Olson: 4.21 PA, 1.04 H, 2.19 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.38 FPts

5. Sean Murphy: 4.08 PA, 0.99 H, 1.85 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.0 SB, 8.41 FPts

6. Marcell Ozuna: 3.96 PA, 0.93 H, 1.82 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.97 FPts

7. Eddie Rosario: 3.66 PA, 0.94 H, 1.68 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.58 FPts

8. Orlando Arcia: 3.75 PA, 0.96 H, 1.55 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.98 FPts

9. Michael Harris II: 3.48 PA, 1.03 H, 1.82 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.53 FPts

CHC Hitter Projections

1. Nick Madrigal: 4.31 PA, 1.15 H, 1.55 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.9 FPts

2. Dansby Swanson: 4.17 PA, 0.97 H, 1.65 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.46 FPts

3. Ian Happ: 4.07 PA, 0.83 H, 1.32 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.7 FPts

4. Cody Bellinger: 4.01 PA, 0.88 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.75 FPts

5. Yan Gomes: 3.81 PA, 0.9 H, 1.49 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.9 FPts

6. Seiya Suzuki: 3.83 PA, 0.87 H, 1.4 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.51 FPts

7. Jeimer Candelario: 3.69 PA, 0.85 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.03 FPts

8. Patrick Wisdom: 3.41 PA, 0.63 H, 1.37 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.95 FPts

9. Miguel Amaya: 3.27 PA, 0.69 H, 1.16 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.14 FPts

Best Bets

Kyle Hendricks CHC - Outs Under 17.5 (+105.0) - 0.164 value

Max Fried ATL - Walks Under 1.5 (-110.0) - 0.142 value

Matt Olson ATL - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.116 value

Miguel Amaya CHC - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-155.0) - 0.108 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

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TB @ DET

Projected Game Score:

TB 4.12 - DET 2.94

TB 58.3% To Win

Vegas O/U: 9.0

Projected Total: 7.06

2023 Pitcher Stats

Zack Littell: 4 GS, 487 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, 11.9 SwStr%, 50.5 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%, 47.4 GB%, 10 Brl%

Reese Olson: 8 GS, 830 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 11.9 SwStr%, 46.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%, 41.2 GB%, 11 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Zack Littell (TB): 83 Pitches 5.1 IP, 4.4 H, 2.0 ER, 5.7 K, 1.4 BB, 16.04 FPts

Reese Olson (DET): 89 Pitches 5.46 IP, 5.2 H, 2.5 ER, 5.6 K, 1.2 BB, 15.12 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Zack Littell - 3.5 strikeouts

Reese Olson - 4.5 strikeouts

TB Hitter Projections

1. Yandy Diaz: 4.36 PA, 1.08 H, 1.65 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.66 FPts

2. Wander Franco: 4.32 PA, 1.1 H, 1.71 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.29 FPts

3. Brandon Lowe: 4.16 PA, 0.86 H, 1.59 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.46 FPts

4. Randy Arozarena: 4.16 PA, 0.96 H, 1.66 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.3 FPts

5. Luke Raley: 3.84 PA, 0.84 H, 1.55 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.04 FPts

6. Isaac Paredes: 3.85 PA, 0.78 H, 1.33 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.06 FPts

7. Josh Lowe: 3.73 PA, 0.83 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.83 FPts

8. Jose Siri: 3.7 PA, 0.73 H, 1.3 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.11 FPts

9. Christian Bethancourt: 3.36 PA, 0.76 H, 1.25 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.14 FPts

DET Hitter Projections

1. Zach McKinstry: 4.23 PA, 0.81 H, 1.34 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.16 FPts

2. Riley Greene: 4.32 PA, 0.99 H, 1.54 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.96 FPts

3. Spencer Torkelson: 4.26 PA, 0.82 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.18 FPts

4. Kerry Carpenter: 3.97 PA, 0.88 H, 1.52 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.3 FPts

5. Matt Vierling: 3.98 PA, 0.91 H, 1.36 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.19 FPts

6. Javier Baez: 3.86 PA, 0.84 H, 1.34 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.72 FPts

7. Miguel Cabrera: 3.75 PA, 0.78 H, 1.1 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.73 FPts

8. Akil Baddoo: 3.42 PA, 0.64 H, 0.92 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.14 SB, 5.14 FPts

9. Jake Rogers: 3.35 PA, 0.59 H, 1.08 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.74 FPts

Best Bets

Zack Littell TB - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-125.0) - 0.261 value

Reese Olson DET - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+100.0) - 0.164 value

Zach McKinstry DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (+115.0) - 0.139 value

Reese Olson DET - Walks Under 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.133 value

Spencer Torkelson DET - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.122 value

Zach McKinstry DET - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-145.0) - 0.116 value

Akil Baddoo DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (-140.0) - 0.116 value

Javier Baez DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.105 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

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WSH @ CIN

Projected Game Score:

CIN 5.6 - WSH 4.9

CIN 53.3% To Win

Vegas O/U: 10.5

Projected Total: 10.5

2023 Pitcher Stats

Graham Ashcraft: 20 GS, 1756 Pitches, 16.4 K%, 9.1 BB%, 10.4 SwStr%, 44.4 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%, 47.8 GB%, 6 Brl%

Patrick Corbin: 22 GS, 2040 Pitches, 15.5 K%, 6.4 BB%, 9.3 SwStr%, 41.5 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 46.0 GB%, 9 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 93 Pitches 5.77 IP, 6.2 H, 2.9 ER, 4.0 K, 1.8 BB, 11.0 FPts

Patrick Corbin (WSH): 93 Pitches 5.37 IP, 6.5 H, 3.2 ER, 4.4 K, 1.7 BB, 9.98 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Graham Ashcraft - 4.5 strikeouts

Patrick Corbin - 4.5 strikeouts

WSH Hitter Projections

1. C.J. Abrams: 4.68 PA, 1.19 H, 1.88 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.23 SB, 9.26 FPts

2. Lane Thomas: 4.59 PA, 1.1 H, 1.85 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.77 FPts

3. Joey Meneses: 4.47 PA, 1.16 H, 1.81 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.07 FPts

4. Dominic Smith: 4.41 PA, 1.02 H, 1.48 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.11 FPts

5. Keibert Ruiz: 4.29 PA, 1.09 H, 1.77 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.08 FPts

6. Jake Alu: 4.18 PA, 1.0 H, 1.55 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.54 FPts

7. Alex Call: 3.99 PA, 0.81 H, 1.26 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.95 FPts

8. Blake Rutherford: 3.92 PA, 0.94 H, 1.55 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.12 FPts

9. Jeter Downs: 3.67 PA, 0.7 H, 1.17 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.66 FPts

CIN Hitter Projections

1. Elly De La Cruz: 4.46 PA, 1.21 H, 2.02 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.23 SB, 10.05 FPts

2. Nick Senzel: 4.22 PA, 1.02 H, 1.54 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.68 FPts

3. Matt McLain: 4.25 PA, 1.19 H, 2.15 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.13 SB, 10.45 FPts

4. Spencer Steer: 4.17 PA, 1.01 H, 1.7 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.3 FPts

5. Kevin Newman: 3.98 PA, 1.14 H, 1.73 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.16 FPts

6. Joey Votto: 3.89 PA, 0.86 H, 1.63 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.74 FPts

7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3.84 PA, 1.04 H, 1.96 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.44 FPts

8. Tyler Stephenson: 3.62 PA, 0.97 H, 1.61 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.41 FPts

9. Stuart Fairchild: 3.17 PA, 0.78 H, 1.42 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.9 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

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