DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 9th
Atlanta set up to smash the Pirates, great hitting environment in Boston, 11 algorithm recommended bets, and tons more!
DFS has been a true delight recently. I wasn’t really playing much for a couple of months there but I’ve been back into it (still limiting to $10 or so per slate) and it’s been fun. Do you know why it’s been fun? Because I’ve been WINNING!
I have played the $1 or $5 Hundo 18 times since July. These are 100-man contests with 10% rake and the top 22 cash. Top prize is a 14:1 return.
My results, from oldest to newest:
83rd
98th
63th
20th
80th
35th
13th
39th
2nd
3rd
81st
77st
1st
20th
13th
19th
18th
19th
That’s $70 in and $117 out! Could have been much better to except for the one time I took it down was just a $1 contest. That’s more than a 50% cash rate, which is certainly unsustainable. I doubt I could actually beat even a 10% rake over the long haul, but it’s not out of the question I guess. I am going to keep running these contests and I’ll stick to those for NFL as well, an extra 5-7% in the rake department makes a big difference! Let’s talk about the slate tonight and try to cash again!
DFS Preview
Game Previews
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
ATL (vs. Quinn Priester): 79.79 Projected Points
MIA (vs. Graham Ashcraft): 76.75 Projected Points
BOS (vs. Jordan Lyles): 73.64 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Jack Flaherty): 73.34 Projected Points
PHI (vs. MacKenzie Gore): 73.21 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
DET (vs. Bailey Ober): 53.55 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Max Fried): 55.85 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Jordan Montgomery): 56.11 Projected Points
MIN (vs. Alex Faedo): 58.77 Projected Points
SF (vs. Shohei Ohtani): 59.71 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Jordan Montgomery: 17.98 Today, 17.78 Previous Max
Adrian Houser: 14.86 Today, 13.03 Previous Max
Alex Faedo: 13.38 Today, 12.22 Previous Max
Johnny Cueto: 13.28 Today, 12.87 Previous Max
Jarren Duran: 9.44 Today, 9.13 Previous Max
Triston Casas: 8.72 Today, 8.54 Previous Max
Alec Bohm: 8.21 Today, 8.13 Previous Max
Michael Massey: 8.16 Today, 8.14 Previous Max
Pitchers
Emerson Hancock $4,000
Yu Darvish $8,800 vs. SEA
Kevin Gausman $10,800 vs. CLE
Shohei Ohtani $11,300 vs. SF
Nick Pivetta $7,800 vs. BOS
Max Fried $9,400 vs. PIT
It’s a tough slate for pitching. The aces all have problems
Ohtani is extremely expensive and has been removed early with cramping stuff three times recently. It’s hard to pay that much for a guy that could so easily get pulled after four innings
Gausman gets the matchup with the Guardians which knocks his strikeout projection down to 5.5 - they just don’t strike out, so that makes $10,800 hard to get to
Max Fried is likely going to be limited to 80-85 pitches. He threw just 72 in his first start back. With his lack of a strikeout rate and a Pirates lineup that makes a ton of contact against lefties, it’s tough to click on Fried
The model’s recommended duo looks like Darvish + Hancock. I know there will be some fussing about playing a dude debuting from AA against a tough Padres lineup, but it’s really hard to pass up on these $4,000 price tags. That shouldn’t be his price - it’s only there because the DraftKings guys didn’t get him in the pricing algorithm in time, so you’re getting like at least a $2,500 discount there - you should just take that.
So we’ll start the lineup with
SP1 Darvish
SP2 Hancock
We can’t get two wins now because those two face each other - so this isn’t an ideal choice if you’re trying to beat 5,000 other people - but I’m only trying to beat 99 so it’s fine.
Team Offense
Top Raw Projections
Braves vs. Pirates
Red Sox vs. Lyles
Astros vs. Flaherty
Royals vs. Pivetta
Yankees vs. Clevinger
Price Considered Values
Royals vs. Pivetta
White Sox vs. Severino
Yankees vs. Clevinger
Red Sox vs. Lyles
Guardians vs. Gausman
The Braves are the standout spot, even with the park downgrade in Pittsburgh. Priester has been brutally bad with a 2.1% K-BB% (15% BB%!) and he’s not been overly good at keeping the ball out of the air (49% GB%). We don’t really love walks for DFS, but it gives everybody more opportunity for scoring points via runs, RBI, and extra PAs. The Pirates bullpen is also pretty beaten up (Bednar will be unavailable) - so this is likely going to be a smash night for Atlanta.
The good news is that we’re spending only $12,800 at SP, so we can afford these big bats.
The Red Sox and Royals make for nice offenses to fill in the gaps with as affordable bats in positive hitting environments.
Catchers
Danny Jansen $3,500 vs. Logan Allen
Salvador Perez $4,200 vs. Nick Pivetta
Adley Rutschman $5,200 vs. Cristian Javier
Sean Murphy $5,400 vs. Quinn Priester
Francisco Alvarez $4,000 vs. Kyle Hendricks
Danny Jansen has crushed lefties since last year with a 16% K% and a 15% Brl%. That is good enough for me as the cheapest one on the list! He’s in the lineup.
First Base
Triston Casas $3,900 vs. Jordan Lyles
Matt Olson $6,300 vs. Quinn Priester
Vlad Guerrero Jr. $5,000 vs. Logan Allen
Jake Bauers $2,800 vs. Mike Clevinger
Freddie Freeman $6,200 vs. Merrill Kelly
Hard to not choose Casas or Olson here. Love both of those plays, but we’ll let the rest of the lineup dictate which one ends up in the main lineup. I want as many Braves as possible, but I think I’m going to have to give up one of the big boys - so maybe the best choice for that will be Olson given the replacement options.
Second Base
Michael Massey $2,700 vs. Nick Pivetta
Jose Altuve $5,400 vs. Jack Flaherty
Ozzie Albies $5,400 vs. Quinn Priester
Mookie Betts $6,500 vs. Merrill Kelly
Gleyber Torres $4,500 vs. Mike Clevinger
Massey put up a 25-burger for us last night, and it’s pretty tempting to pull the trigger on him again. He’s been really good since June or so, the park boost is massive going from KC to BOS as a lefty, and he’s likely going to hit 3rd.
Third Base
Rafael Devers $5,200 vs. Jordan Lyles
Maikel Garcia $3,900 vs. Nick Pivetta
Jose Ramirez $5,400 vs. Kevin Gausman
Austin Riley $5,700 vs. Quinn Priester
Alex Bregman $5,100 vs. Jack Flaherty
This is a huge projection for Devers (10.19 points). I might just have to take the $500 savings from Riley and roll with that. But I think it’s one of those two for me in this spot. PNC Park is a pretty tough place to homer in for right-handed pull hitters, so that’s a little knock on Riley. Let’s go with Devers here.
Shortstop
Bobby Witt Jr. $5,600 vs. Nick Pivetta
Francisco Lindor $5,300 vs. Kyle Hendricks
Anthony Volpe $3,000 vs. Mike Clevinger
Tim Anderson $3,600 vs. Luis Severino
Gunnar Henderson $4,900 vs. Cristian Javier
Not in love with any of these plays, so this might be a spot to punt just to optimize every other position. We’ll come back to it.
Outfield
Aaron Judge $6,400 vs. Mike Clevinger
Ronald Acuna Jr. $6,800 vs. Quinn Priester
Jarren Duran $4,100 vs. Jordan Lyles
Yordan Alvarez $6,000 vs. Jack Flaherty
Kyle Tucker $5,500 vs. Jack Flaherty
Masataka Yoshida $4,800 vs. Jordan Lyles
Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,200 vs. Emerson Hancock
Edward Olivares $2,400 vs. Nick Pivetta
Drew Waters $2,500 vs. Nick Pivetta
Juan Soto $5,900 vs. Emerson Hancock
Corbin Carroll $5,800 vs. Bobby Miller
Rafael Ortega $2,000 vs. Kyle Hendricks
MJ Melendez $3,100 vs. Nick Pivetta
Michael Harris II $4,300 vs. Quinn Priester
Jake Bauers $2,800 vs. Mike Clevinger
If we’re going with Braves, we have to cram Acuna Jr. into the lineup. He did leave the game last night after getting hit in the elbow, but the x-rays were negative. It’s still possible he’s sore and they give him a day off, they don’t have much reason to push it with him - so that’s something to monitor - and if he’s out, it will change the whole lineup quite a bit (I’m guessing it would force Michael Harris up the lineup and then make him a lock play).
But if we go Darvish+Hancock+Jansen+Devers+Acuna we have $4,300 per slot left. I put in Olson+Albies and that leaves $3300 per slot left for SS and two OF spots. So we need a punt option. The raw value leader is Edward Olivares who projects for 7.68 points at $2,400 - so let’s go with that. Then we can go with Jarren Duran and Anthony Volpe to finish out the first draft of the lineup
SP Darvish
SP Hancock
C Jansen
1B Olson
2B Albies
SS Volpe
3B Devers
OF Acuna Jr.
OF Olivares
OF Duran
If Acuna is out, we could make these pivots:
SP Darvish
SP Hancock
C Jansen
1B Olson
2B Albies
SS Witt Jr.
3B Devers
OF Harris II
OF Olivares
OF Duran
That might be better even if Acuna plays!
So there you go, now let’s go to the game previews and bets!
Game by Game Previews
MIA @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
MIA 5.72 - CIN 4.68
MIA 55.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.4
2023 Pitcher Stats
Johnny Cueto: 4 GS, 344 Pitches, 21.2 K%, 7.1 BB%, 10.5 SwStr%, 48.3 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%, 30.0 GB%, 8 Brl%
Graham Ashcraft: 21 GS, 1862 Pitches, 16.4 K%, 8.9 BB%, 10.3 SwStr%, 44.5 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%, 47.8 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Johnny Cueto (MIA): 92 Pitches 5.76 IP, 6.3 H, 3.0 ER, 5.3 K, 1.5 BB, 13.28 FPts
Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 97 Pitches 5.94 IP, 6.7 H, 3.4 ER, 4.6 K, 2.1 BB, 11.15 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Johnny Cueto - 4.5 strikeouts
Graham Ashcraft - 4.5 strikeouts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Jorge Soler: 4.68 PA, 1.0 H, 2.03 TB, 0.27 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.43 FPts
2. Luis Arraez: 4.55 PA, 1.36 H, 1.92 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.12 FPts
3. Josh Bell: 4.44 PA, 1.04 H, 1.79 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.16 FPts
4. Jazz Chisholm: 4.12 PA, 1.05 H, 2.03 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.28 SB, 10.77 FPts
5. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.26 PA, 1.12 H, 1.91 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.67 FPts
6. Avisail Garcia: 4.03 PA, 0.98 H, 1.66 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.52 FPts
7. Jake Burger: 3.96 PA, 0.97 H, 2.0 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.52 FPts
8. Jacob Stallings: 3.66 PA, 0.78 H, 1.22 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.08 FPts
9. Jon Berti: 3.54 PA, 0.88 H, 1.28 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.26 SB, 7.48 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Elly De La Cruz: 4.45 PA, 1.07 H, 1.78 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.76 FPts
2. TJ Friedl: 4.26 PA, 1.03 H, 1.54 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.86 FPts
3. Matt McLain: 4.24 PA, 1.05 H, 1.87 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.92 FPts
4. Spencer Steer: 4.15 PA, 0.94 H, 1.56 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.3 FPts
5. Joey Votto: 3.99 PA, 0.88 H, 1.75 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.0 SB, 8.05 FPts
6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3.94 PA, 0.97 H, 1.81 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.57 FPts
7. Tyler Stephenson: 3.74 PA, 0.92 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.49 FPts
8. Nick Senzel: 3.58 PA, 0.82 H, 1.27 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.15 FPts
9. Stuart Fairchild: 3.19 PA, 0.72 H, 1.29 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.07 FPts
Best Bets
Graham Ashcraft CIN - Walks Over 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.123 value
Johnny Cueto MIA - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+105.0) - 0.121 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
COL @ MIL
Projected Game Score:
MIL 4.82 - COL 3.96
MIL 55.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.78
2023 Pitcher Stats
Adrian Houser: 13 GS, 1271 Pitches, 17.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 8.1 SwStr%, 44.3 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%, 48.1 GB%, 6 Brl%
Chris Flexen: 6 GS, 875 Pitches, 14.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 11.5 SwStr%, 43.0 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%, 39.8 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Adrian Houser (MIL): 93 Pitches 5.51 IP, 5.1 H, 2.4 ER, 5.2 K, 2.3 BB, 14.86 FPts
Chris Flexen (COL): 77 Pitches 5.22 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 3.5 K, 2.7 BB, 9.35 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Adrian Houser - 5.5 strikeouts
Chris Flexen - 3.5 strikeouts
COL Hitter Projections
1. Jurickson Profar: 4.66 PA, 1.05 H, 1.58 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.13 FPts
2. Ezequiel Tovar: 4.48 PA, 1.04 H, 1.6 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.3 FPts
3. Ryan McMahon: 4.4 PA, 1.0 H, 1.77 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.83 FPts
4. Nolan Jones: 4.34 PA, 0.97 H, 1.71 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.54 FPts
5. Michael Toglia: 4.25 PA, 0.82 H, 1.27 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.24 FPts
6. Harold Castro: 3.92 PA, 1.01 H, 1.51 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.15 FPts
7. Brenton Doyle: 3.88 PA, 0.74 H, 1.26 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.22 FPts
8. Cole Tucker: 3.89 PA, 0.74 H, 1.09 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.88 FPts
9. Austin Wynns: 3.37 PA, 0.69 H, 0.99 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.44 FPts
MIL Hitter Projections
1. Christian Yelich: 4.54 PA, 1.11 H, 1.75 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.19 SB, 10.0 FPts
2. William Contreras: 4.48 PA, 1.09 H, 1.9 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.95 FPts
3. Mark Canha: 4.33 PA, 0.97 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.04 FPts
4. Sal Frelick: 4.28 PA, 0.9 H, 1.25 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.4 FPts
5. Willy Adames: 4.11 PA, 0.91 H, 1.68 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.95 FPts
6. Andruw Monasterio: 3.81 PA, 0.8 H, 1.24 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.9 FPts
7. Brice Turang: 3.83 PA, 0.83 H, 1.24 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.9 FPts
8. Tyrone Taylor: 3.58 PA, 0.79 H, 1.38 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.46 FPts
9. Joey Wiemer: 3.41 PA, 0.69 H, 1.23 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.47 FPts
Best Bets
Chris Flexen COL - Walks Over 1.5 (-145.0) - 0.154 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
TEX @ OAK
Projected Game Score:
TEX 4.72 - OAK 3.36
TEX 58.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.08
2023 Pitcher Stats
Jordan Montgomery: 21 GS, 2007 Pitches, 21.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 45.6 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%, 45.4 GB%, 8 Brl%
Freddy Tarnok: 1 GS, 218 Pitches, 20.4 K%, 18.4 BB%, 9.6 SwStr%, 44.5 Strike%, 41.7 Ball%, 16.7 GB%, 20 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Jordan Montgomery (TEX): 92 Pitches 6.22 IP, 5.8 H, 2.6 ER, 6.1 K, 1.4 BB, 17.98 FPts
Freddy Tarnok (OAK): 55 Pitches 3.08 IP, 3.0 H, 1.6 ER, 2.6 K, 1.4 BB, 6.96 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jordan Montgomery - 5.5 strikeouts
Freddy Tarnok - Prop Not Found
TEX Hitter Projections
1. Marcus Semien: 4.45 PA, 1.02 H, 1.68 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.35 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.35 PA, 1.18 H, 2.21 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.72 FPts
3. Nathaniel Lowe: 4.26 PA, 1.04 H, 1.65 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.07 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.14 PA, 0.96 H, 1.81 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.94 FPts
5. Travis Jankowski: 3.91 PA, 0.85 H, 1.12 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.23 SB, 7.32 FPts
6. Mitch Garver: 3.95 PA, 0.8 H, 1.52 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.26 FPts
7. Robbie Grossman: 3.75 PA, 0.72 H, 1.16 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.26 FPts
8. Ezequiel Duran: 3.58 PA, 0.84 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.38 FPts
9. Leody Taveras: 3.47 PA, 0.86 H, 1.33 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.4 FPts
OAK Hitter Projections
1. Esteury Ruiz: 4.51 PA, 1.09 H, 1.54 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.34 SB, 8.13 FPts
2. Zack Gelof: 4.41 PA, 0.93 H, 1.67 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.57 FPts
3. Aledmys Diaz: 4.12 PA, 0.94 H, 1.46 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.09 FPts
4. Brent Rooker: 4.04 PA, 0.85 H, 1.61 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.13 FPts
5. Jordan Diaz: 3.88 PA, 0.92 H, 1.43 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.82 FPts
6. Shea Langeliers: 3.98 PA, 0.76 H, 1.44 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.83 FPts
7. Jonah Bride: 3.89 PA, 0.86 H, 1.25 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.74 FPts
8. Tyler Soderstrom: 3.75 PA, 0.72 H, 1.29 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.29 FPts
9. Nick Allen: 3.4 PA, 0.72 H, 1.0 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.06 SB, 4.51 FPts
Best Bets
Shea Langeliers OAK - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-155.0) - 0.13 value
Jordan Montgomery TEX - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (+115.0) - 0.105 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
STL @ TB
Projected Game Score:
TB 5.06 - STL 4.38
TB 53.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 9.44
2023 Pitcher Stats
Jalen Beeks: 7 GS, 642 Pitches, 23.7 K%, 11.2 BB%, 13.4 SwStr%, 44.1 Strike%, 38.9 Ball%, 44.0 GB%, 7 Brl%
Dakota Hudson: 2 GS, 447 Pitches, 17.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 10.5 SwStr%, 41.8 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%, 46.3 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Jalen Beeks (TB): 60 Pitches 3.87 IP, 3.4 H, 1.9 ER, 4.2 K, 1.7 BB, 11.21 FPts
Dakota Hudson (STL): 86 Pitches 5.63 IP, 5.7 H, 3.0 ER, 4.1 K, 2.6 BB, 10.13 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jalen Beeks - Prop Not Found
Dakota Hudson - 3.5 strikeouts
STL Hitter Projections
1. Tommy Edman: 4.32 PA, 1.0 H, 1.57 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.24 SB, 8.34 FPts
2. Paul Goldschmidt: 4.21 PA, 0.93 H, 1.66 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.43 FPts
3. Nolan Arenado: 4.11 PA, 1.03 H, 1.96 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.6 FPts
4. Willson Contreras: 4.05 PA, 0.86 H, 1.58 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.65 FPts
5. Tyler O'Neill: 3.97 PA, 0.83 H, 1.58 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.92 FPts
6. Jordan Walker: 3.79 PA, 0.88 H, 1.41 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.68 FPts
7. Nolan Gorman: 3.71 PA, 0.71 H, 1.39 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.63 FPts
8. Dylan Carlson: 3.52 PA, 0.73 H, 1.18 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.78 FPts
9. Andrew Knizner: 3.08 PA, 0.6 H, 0.98 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.58 FPts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.39 PA, 1.13 H, 1.71 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.65 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.34 PA, 1.15 H, 1.78 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.18 SB, 9.33 FPts
3. Brandon Lowe: 4.16 PA, 0.91 H, 1.69 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.52 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.19 PA, 1.01 H, 1.7 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.2 SB, 9.34 FPts
5. Isaac Paredes: 3.98 PA, 0.82 H, 1.38 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.96 FPts
6. Luke Raley: 3.77 PA, 0.88 H, 1.62 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.71 FPts
7. Jose Siri: 3.84 PA, 0.83 H, 1.45 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.19 FPts
8. Josh Lowe: 3.63 PA, 0.89 H, 1.48 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.18 SB, 7.75 FPts
9. Rene Pinto: 3.49 PA, 0.73 H, 1.32 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.61 FPts
Best Bets
Dakota Hudson STL - Outs Over 15.5 (+115.0) - 0.154 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
WSH @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
PHI 5.34 - WSH 3.88
PHI 58.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 9.22
2023 Pitcher Stats
MacKenzie Gore: 22 GS, 2019 Pitches, 26.9 K%, 10.2 BB%, 13.6 SwStr%, 47.9 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%, 39.9 GB%, 11 Brl%
Michael Lorenzen: 19 GS, 1694 Pitches, 19.6 K%, 6.2 BB%, 11.3 SwStr%, 47.3 Strike%, 33.2 Ball%, 42.2 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 93 Pitches 5.47 IP, 5.2 H, 2.9 ER, 5.9 K, 2.4 BB, 14.25 FPts
Michael Lorenzen (PHI): 94 Pitches 5.85 IP, 6.0 H, 2.6 ER, 4.0 K, 1.5 BB, 12.44 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
MacKenzie Gore - 5.5 strikeouts
Michael Lorenzen - 4.5 strikeouts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.43 PA, 1.11 H, 1.73 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.34 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.35 PA, 1.01 H, 1.73 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.69 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.25 PA, 1.06 H, 1.66 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.98 FPts
4. Dominic Smith: 4.17 PA, 0.98 H, 1.42 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.46 FPts
5. Keibert Ruiz: 4.06 PA, 1.03 H, 1.65 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.12 FPts
6. Jake Alu: 3.96 PA, 0.93 H, 1.42 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.54 FPts
7. Ildemaro Vargas: 3.84 PA, 0.92 H, 1.36 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.81 FPts
8. Blake Rutherford: 3.71 PA, 0.89 H, 1.45 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.26 FPts
9. Alex Call: 3.42 PA, 0.67 H, 1.04 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.59 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.59 PA, 0.78 H, 1.66 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.17 FPts
2. Alec Bohm: 4.48 PA, 1.12 H, 1.79 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.21 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.34 PA, 0.92 H, 1.58 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.99 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 4.26 PA, 1.03 H, 1.76 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.09 FPts
5. J.T. Realmuto: 4.13 PA, 0.97 H, 1.79 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.94 FPts
6. Trea Turner: 4.04 PA, 0.98 H, 1.65 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.48 FPts
7. Edmundo Sosa: 3.73 PA, 0.89 H, 1.54 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.86 FPts
8. Rodolfo Castro: 3.66 PA, 0.8 H, 1.41 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.83 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.57 PA, 0.87 H, 1.49 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.64 FPts
Best Bets
Michael Lorenzen PHI - Outs Under 17.5 (+145.0) - 0.103 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
MIN @ DET
Projected Game Score:
MIN 3.82 - DET 3.06
MIN 55.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 6.88
2023 Pitcher Stats
Bailey Ober: 18 GS, 1624 Pitches, 23.7 K%, 4.4 BB%, 14.5 SwStr%, 49.0 Strike%, 33.1 Ball%, 32.6 GB%, 10 Brl%
Alex Faedo: 7 GS, 562 Pitches, 21.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 10.9 SwStr%, 48.4 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%, 34.3 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Bailey Ober (MIN): 92 Pitches 5.74 IP, 5.3 H, 2.4 ER, 6.3 K, 1.2 BB, 17.51 FPts
Alex Faedo (DET): 87 Pitches 5.29 IP, 4.8 H, 2.6 ER, 5.1 K, 2.1 BB, 13.38 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Bailey Ober - 5.5 strikeouts
Alex Faedo - 4.5 strikeouts
MIN Hitter Projections
1. Edouard Julien: 3.99 PA, 0.82 H, 1.55 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.46 FPts
2. Jorge Polanco: 4.08 PA, 0.95 H, 1.77 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.0 FPts
3. Max Kepler: 3.88 PA, 0.9 H, 1.65 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.5 FPts
4. Carlos Correa: 3.88 PA, 0.87 H, 1.49 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.56 FPts
5. Matt Wallner: 3.73 PA, 0.77 H, 1.38 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.35 FPts
6. Ryan Jeffers: 3.72 PA, 0.74 H, 1.33 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.81 FPts
7. Willi Castro: 3.62 PA, 0.82 H, 1.31 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.46 FPts
8. Joey Gallo: 3.29 PA, 0.5 H, 1.11 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.57 FPts
9. Michael A. Taylor: 3.01 PA, 0.65 H, 1.12 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.06 FPts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Akil Baddoo: 4.12 PA, 0.83 H, 1.26 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.22 FPts
2. Riley Greene: 4.32 PA, 1.04 H, 1.64 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.99 FPts
3. Spencer Torkelson: 4.26 PA, 0.88 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.44 FPts
4. Kerry Carpenter: 3.98 PA, 0.98 H, 1.74 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.87 FPts
5. Matt Vierling: 3.98 PA, 0.93 H, 1.42 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.15 FPts
6. Zach McKinstry: 3.73 PA, 0.77 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.63 FPts
7. Javier Baez: 3.76 PA, 0.84 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.83 FPts
8. Nick Maton: 3.43 PA, 0.65 H, 1.09 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.84 FPts
9. Eric Haase: 3.37 PA, 0.66 H, 1.13 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.58 FPts
Best Bets
Carlos Correa MIN - H+R+RBI Under 2.5 (-160.0) - 0.168 value
Carlos Correa MIN - Runs Scored Under 0.5 (-105.0) - 0.145 value
Max Kepler MIN - H+R+RBI Under 2.5 (-160.0) - 0.129 value
Carlos Correa MIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.119 value
Willi Castro MIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.113 value
Eric Haase DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (-145.0) - 0.11 value
Akil Baddoo DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.107 value
Akil Baddoo DET - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-165.0) - 0.106 value
Matt Vierling DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (+120.0) - 0.101 value
Matt Wallner MIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.1 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
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