DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 8th

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

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DFS Preview

Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

MIA (vs. Luke Weaver): 81.98 Projected Points

HOU (vs. Grayson Rodriguez): 76.64 Projected Points

PHI (vs. Josiah Gray): 72.28 Projected Points

ATL (vs. Mitch Keller): 71.64 Projected Points

LAD (vs. Brandon Pfaadt): 71.38 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

OAK (vs. Max Scherzer): 50.15 Projected Points

DET (vs. Sonny Gray): 52.05 Projected Points

COL (vs. Wade Miley): 55.98 Projected Points

MIN (vs. Eduardo Rodriguez): 57.44 Projected Points

PIT (vs. Yonny Chirinos): 57.61 Projected Points

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Today Max Projection Players

Players with their highest projection of the season coming today

Touki Toussaint: 13.56 Today, 10.98 Previous Max

Wade Miley: 12.93 Today, 12.46 Previous Max

Yordan Alvarez: 11.65 Today, 11.0 Previous Max

Jazz Chisholm: 11.4 Today, 9.74 Previous Max

Kyle Tucker: 10.99 Today, 10.53 Previous Max

Jake Burger: 10.08 Today, 9.96 Previous Max

Josh Bell: 9.87 Today, 9.69 Previous Max

Luis Arraez: 9.63 Today, 9.23 Previous Max

Bryan De La Cruz: 8.84 Today, 8.82 Previous Max

Jesus Sanchez: 8.21 Today, 7.93 Previous Max

Luis Rengifo: 7.97 Today, 7.93 Previous Max

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Now we’ll go through each position and build out a lineup. I have been playing the $1 and $5 Hundo contests, which are 100 person contests with only 10% rake. I love those. I usually play a pretty safe lineup here just using the model’s picks - ownership isn’t all that big of a concern for me in these contests.

Pitchers

1. Max Scherzer $10,800 vs. OAK

2. Logan Gilbert $8,700 vs. SD

3. Framber Valdez $11,000 vs. BAL

4. Touki Toussaint $5,700 vs. NYY

5. Jameson Taillon $6,700 vs. NYM

6. Clarke Schmidt $7,100 vs. CWS

7. Kutter Crawford $7,600 vs. KC

I don’t see how we can get away from Scherzer here in Oakland, so he’s going in my one lineup immediately.

The second slot is up for grabs. I’m not super hyped to play Gilbert at $8,700, and might just end up down there with Taillon, Schmidt, or Crawford. Crawford is my favorite of the bunch, so I’ll start with the Scherzer + Crawford combo and go from there.

Spoiler alert that Yordan Alvarez is the top play on the board up at 9.74 projected points, so I’m going to immediately slap him in the lineup as well.

Catchers

1. William Contreras $4,800 vs. Kyle Freeland

2. Mitch Garver $3,400 vs. JP Sears

3. Salvador Perez $4,200 vs. Kutter Crawford

4. Will Smith $5,400 vs. Brandon Pfaadt

5. Patrick Bailey $3,900 vs. Lucas Giolito

Seems like another Mitch Garver day! He’s been the Rangers DH lately and he hit #5 last night - so I would guess he’ll do that again tonight against another lefty. Slap him in there!

I also like the Contreras play against Freeland, but I would probably build a little Brewers stack around him in another lineup. He has smashed lefties, so you can maybe team him up with Yelich and Adames and go from there in a tourney lineup.

First Base

1. Freddie Freeman $6,200 vs. Brandon Pfaadt

2. Shohei Ohtani $6,700 vs. Alex Wood

3. Salvador Perez $4,200 vs. Kutter Crawford

4. LaMonte Wade Jr. $4,100 vs. Lucas Giolito

5. Jon Singleton $2,400 vs. Grayson Rodriguez

This Jon Singleton dude has mashed in the PCL, I wouldn’t expect a ton in the Majors - but even with a moderate base skill projection, he profiles just fine for $2,400.

There’s really no other standout smash play besides Freeman, and I already have Scherzer and Yordan as expensive guys, so maybe Singleton will find his way into this lineup. I’m going to slide him in there for now.

Second Base

1. Michael Massey $2,600 vs. Kutter Crawford

2. Jose Altuve $5,500 vs. Grayson Rodriguez

3. Mookie Betts $6,400 vs. Brandon Pfaadt

4. Marcus Semien $5,600 vs. JP Sears

5. Brendan Rodgers $2,500 vs. Wade Miley

Not too interesting in any of these prices either. Sears isn’t really a guy I try to stack against too much, Altuve’s price is a little bit prohibitive. So let’s look at Michael Massey.

The model is really liking the Royals away from home, especially in Fenway. Massey for the year

.219/.272/.359, 9 HR, 8.9% Brl%, 23.8% K%, 6.1% BB%, .325 xwOBA

That’s an above-average xwOBA and Brl%, and the K% isn’t bad. I think it’s a perfectly fine play even though it’s weird to play hitters against one of your pitchers, but let’s roll with it - I like the savings.

Third Base

1. Jose Ramirez $5,500 vs. Yusei Kikuchi

2. Maikel Garcia $3,700 vs. Kutter Crawford

3. Rafael Devers $5,200 vs. Brady Singer

4. Alex Bregman $4,900 vs. Grayson Rodriguez

5. Max Muncy $5,100 vs. Brandon Pfaadt

J-Ram scored three points in an otherwise great lineup I provided last night, so I hate him right now. He was also suspended, so it’s possible that he drops the appeal or whatever and just starts serving that. He’s also been pretty MEH as a righty in the last two years, so I’ll pass o that.

vs. RHP: 819 PA, .926 OPS, .349 xwOBA
vs. LHP: 315 PA, .672 OPS, .288 xwOBA

Maikel Garcia doesn’t homer (83.3 PA/HR, 4.5% Brl%), so that reduces the upside a ton - which makes me not want to add him as a second Royal against a pitcher I’m playing. That might lead me to Devers or Muncy, who are both against pitchers that can serve up the long ball. Let’s go with Muncy for now.

Shortstop

1. Bobby Witt Jr. $5,400 vs. Kutter Crawford

2. Corey Seager $6,200 vs. JP Sears

3. Francisco Lindor $4,800 vs. Jameson Taillon

4. Willy Adames $4,700 vs. Kyle Freeland

5. Anthony Volpe $3,000 vs. Touki Toussaint

The Royals are all over this. This is, I think, mostly because their prices are established by them playing half the time in Kauffman Stadium, and projecting them in Fenway leads to way better scores than in Kauffman, but the prices don’t move - so that naturally leads to them standing out. I certainly think Witt Jr. is a great play here, but again - I don’t want to load up on Royals when I like Crawford!

Volpe feels like a decent punt-ish option because of how many hitters Toussaint walks, but he’ll probably hit 8th tonight. I like Lindor and Adames here, so I want one of them - but not sure we’ll be able to make it happen so let’s look at the outfield before deciding.

Outfield

1. Yordan Alvarez $5,800 vs. Grayson Rodriguez

2. Aaron Judge $6,500 vs. Touki Toussaint

3. Ronald Acuna Jr. $6,600 vs. Mitch Keller

4. Kyle Tucker $5,600 vs. Grayson Rodriguez

5. Mark Canha $2,400 vs. Kyle Freeland

6. Mookie Betts $6,400 vs. Mookie Betts

7. MJ Melendez $3,000 vs. Kutter Crawford

8. Ian Happ $3,400 vs. Carlos Carrasco

9. Edward Olivares $2,500 vs. Kutter Crawford

10. Drew Waters $2,600 vs. Kutter Crawford

11. Shohei Ohtani $6,700 vs. Alex Wood

12. Masataka Yoshida $4,700 vs. Brady Singer

13. Rafael Ortega $2,000 vs. Jameson Taillon

14. Tyrone Taylor $2,900 vs. Kyle Freeland

15. Mike Tauchman $3,500 vs. Carlos Carrasco

Yordan is already in the lineup, so with SS and two OF spots left we have $4,100 to spend. I need to pay down for someone, so let’s just take the first cheap option there in Mark Canha. He’s been pretty bad this year with a .694 OPS, but it’s at .724 against lefties - and the Brewers are in a pretty good spot here, so I’m fine with the play.

That brings us to $9,900 left for two spots. I have two Astros already, so what we can do is go Kyle Tucker here and then go with Luis Rengifo at shortstop.

That leaves us with a lineup like this:

SP1 Scherzer
SP2 Crawford
C Garver
1B Singleton
2B Massey
3B Muncy
SS Rengifo
OF Alvarez
OF Tucker
OF Canha

And now on to the game-by-game previews, the pay wall, and the recommended bets! I’ll tweet out any top plays that pop up that I’m considering subbing into the lineup.

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Game by Game Previews

WSH @ PHI

Projected Game Score:

PHI 5.16 - WSH 3.96

PHI 56.5% To Win

Vegas O/U: 9.0

Projected Total: 9.12

2023 Pitcher Stats

Ranger Suarez: 15 GS, 1381 Pitches, 20.8 K%, 8.2 BB%, 10.2 SwStr%, 44.0 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 53.3 GB%, 8 Brl%

Josiah Gray: 22 GS, 2110 Pitches, 19.8 K%, 10.6 BB%, 12.2 SwStr%, 44.5 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%, 41.2 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Ranger Suarez (PHI): 83 Pitches 5.17 IP, 5.2 H, 2.2 ER, 4.2 K, 1.4 BB, 12.81 FPts

Josiah Gray (WSH): 92 Pitches 5.71 IP, 5.4 H, 3.0 ER, 5.1 K, 2.5 BB, 12.78 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Ranger Suarez - Prop Not Found

Josiah Gray - Prop Not Found

WSH Hitter Projections

1. C.J. Abrams: 4.54 PA, 1.08 H, 1.65 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.06 FPts

2. Lane Thomas: 4.46 PA, 1.09 H, 1.83 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.26 FPts

3. Joey Meneses: 4.35 PA, 1.12 H, 1.79 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.56 FPts

4. Dominic Smith: 4.28 PA, 0.99 H, 1.35 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.43 FPts

5. Keibert Ruiz: 4.16 PA, 1.07 H, 1.62 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.1 FPts

6. Jake Alu: 4.06 PA, 0.93 H, 1.37 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.46 FPts

7. Ildemaro Vargas: 3.94 PA, 0.96 H, 1.41 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.03 FPts

8. Blake Rutherford: 3.81 PA, 0.88 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.08 FPts

9. Alex Call: 3.51 PA, 0.69 H, 1.06 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.89 FPts

PHI Hitter Projections

1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.56 PA, 0.86 H, 1.93 TB, 0.29 HR, 0.04 SB, 10.05 FPts

2. Alec Bohm: 4.45 PA, 1.06 H, 1.62 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.35 FPts

3. Bryce Harper: 4.31 PA, 1.05 H, 1.87 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.12 SB, 9.9 FPts

4. Nick Castellanos: 4.23 PA, 1.01 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.93 FPts

5. Bryson Stott: 4.14 PA, 1.02 H, 1.54 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.74 FPts

6. J.T. Realmuto: 4.0 PA, 0.95 H, 1.73 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.37 FPts

7. Trea Turner: 3.89 PA, 0.91 H, 1.47 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.19 SB, 7.63 FPts

8. Jake Cave: 3.51 PA, 0.72 H, 1.28 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.07 FPts

9. Johan Rojas: 3.55 PA, 0.85 H, 1.44 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.24 FPts

Best Bets

None

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

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MIN @ DET

Projected Game Score:

MIN 3.58 - DET 2.96

MIN 54.7% To Win

Vegas O/U: 7.5

Projected Total: 6.54

2023 Pitcher Stats

Sonny Gray: 21 GS, 1974 Pitches, 23.7 K%, 8.5 BB%, 12.4 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%, 48.6 GB%, 7 Brl%

Eduardo Rodriguez: 16 GS, 1499 Pitches, 25.5 K%, 5.8 BB%, 11.8 SwStr%, 49.0 Strike%, 33.9 Ball%, 42.8 GB%, 6 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Sonny Gray (MIN): 85 Pitches 5.38 IP, 4.5 H, 2.1 ER, 6.1 K, 1.8 BB, 16.97 FPts

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 93 Pitches 5.72 IP, 5.4 H, 2.4 ER, 5.7 K, 1.5 BB, 15.94 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Sonny Gray - 5.5 strikeouts

Eduardo Rodriguez - 5.5 strikeouts

MIN Hitter Projections

1. Donovan Solano: 4.22 PA, 1.0 H, 1.42 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.26 FPts

2. Jorge Polanco: 4.31 PA, 1.02 H, 1.82 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.85 FPts

3. Carlos Correa: 4.2 PA, 0.94 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.88 FPts

4. Ryan Jeffers: 4.14 PA, 0.84 H, 1.46 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.56 FPts

5. Kyle Farmer: 3.93 PA, 0.99 H, 1.59 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.7 FPts

6. Willi Castro: 3.95 PA, 0.93 H, 1.44 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.78 FPts

7. Jordan Luplow: 3.87 PA, 0.68 H, 1.16 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.75 FPts

8. Christian Vazquez: 3.6 PA, 0.86 H, 1.27 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.46 FPts

9. Michael A. Taylor: 3.18 PA, 0.69 H, 1.16 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.2 FPts

DET Hitter Projections

1. Akil Baddoo: 4.17 PA, 0.82 H, 1.18 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.35 FPts

2. Riley Greene: 4.38 PA, 1.01 H, 1.53 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.93 FPts

3. Matt Vierling: 4.25 PA, 0.97 H, 1.42 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.56 FPts

4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.22 PA, 0.82 H, 1.36 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.03 FPts

5. Kerry Carpenter: 3.93 PA, 0.91 H, 1.54 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.3 FPts

6. Miguel Cabrera: 3.9 PA, 0.83 H, 1.16 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.84 FPts

7. Zach McKinstry: 3.68 PA, 0.72 H, 1.17 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.42 FPts

8. Nick Maton: 3.48 PA, 0.6 H, 0.97 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.76 FPts

9. Jake Rogers: 3.4 PA, 0.63 H, 1.13 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.86 FPts

Best Bets

Spencer Torkelson DET - Runs Scored Under 0.5 (-135.0) - 0.124 value

Eduardo Rodriguez DET - Outs Under 17.5 (+135.0) - 0.123 value

Sonny Gray MIN - Outs Under 17.5 (-115.0) - 0.111 value

Nick Maton DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.101 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

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STL @ TB

Projected Game Score:

TB 4.4 - STL 4.15

TB 51.5% To Win

Vegas O/U: 8.5

Projected Total: 8.55

2023 Pitcher Stats

Zach Eflin: 21 GS, 1731 Pitches, 25.3 K%, 3.3 BB%, 11.7 SwStr%, 49.3 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%, 52.6 GB%, 8 Brl%

Miles Mikolas: 24 GS, 2162 Pitches, 16.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 7.9 SwStr%, 46.3 Strike%, 33.1 Ball%, 38.1 GB%, 8 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Zach Eflin (TB): 83 Pitches 5.15 IP, 5.2 H, 2.5 ER, 5.2 K, 1.2 BB, 14.07 FPts

Miles Mikolas (STL): 100 Pitches 6.03 IP, 6.4 H, 3.0 ER, 5.2 K, 1.4 BB, 13.66 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Zach Eflin - 5.5 strikeouts

Miles Mikolas - 3.5 strikeouts

STL Hitter Projections

1. Lars Nootbaar: 4.24 PA, 0.97 H, 1.72 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.21 FPts

2. Paul Goldschmidt: 4.15 PA, 0.96 H, 1.7 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.82 FPts

3. Nolan Gorman: 4.06 PA, 0.88 H, 1.78 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.8 FPts

4. Nolan Arenado: 3.95 PA, 0.99 H, 1.82 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.61 FPts

5. Willson Contreras: 3.88 PA, 0.86 H, 1.55 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.91 FPts

6. Tyler O'Neill: 3.81 PA, 0.81 H, 1.5 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.89 FPts

7. Jordan Walker: 3.63 PA, 0.86 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.11 FPts

8. Alec Burleson: 3.27 PA, 0.84 H, 1.4 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.81 FPts

9. Tommy Edman: 3.32 PA, 0.79 H, 1.18 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.18 SB, 6.12 FPts

TB Hitter Projections

1. Yandy Diaz: 4.29 PA, 1.14 H, 1.76 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.99 FPts

2. Wander Franco: 4.25 PA, 1.18 H, 1.88 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.9 FPts

3. Brandon Lowe: 4.07 PA, 0.93 H, 1.75 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.9 FPts

4. Randy Arozarena: 4.1 PA, 1.01 H, 1.71 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.46 FPts

5. Luke Raley: 3.79 PA, 0.9 H, 1.68 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.37 FPts

6. Isaac Paredes: 3.79 PA, 0.82 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.28 FPts

7. Josh Lowe: 3.67 PA, 0.92 H, 1.56 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.39 FPts

8. Jose Siri: 3.63 PA, 0.78 H, 1.39 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.43 FPts

9. Christian Bethancourt: 3.31 PA, 0.79 H, 1.29 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.22 FPts

Best Bets

Zach Eflin TB - Outs Under 17.5 (+120.0) - 0.255 value

Miles Mikolas STL - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-170.0) - 0.133 value

Miles Mikolas STL - Outs Over 16.5 (-110.0) - 0.109 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

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MIA @ CIN

Projected Game Score:

MIA 6.44 - CIN 4.4

MIA 59.5% To Win

Vegas O/U: 10.0

Projected Total: 10.84

2023 Pitcher Stats

Braxton Garrett: 19 GS, 1731 Pitches, 26.3 K%, 4.1 BB%, 13.3 SwStr%, 49.0 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%, 48.6 GB%, 9 Brl%

Luke Weaver: 19 GS, 1629 Pitches, 17.5 K%, 7.8 BB%, 9.7 SwStr%, 44.9 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%, 36.2 GB%, 10 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Braxton Garrett (MIA): 93 Pitches 5.56 IP, 5.9 H, 2.9 ER, 6.2 K, 1.2 BB, 15.47 FPts

Luke Weaver (CIN): 85 Pitches 5.0 IP, 5.7 H, 3.0 ER, 4.5 K, 1.7 BB, 10.41 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Braxton Garrett - 5.5 strikeouts

Luke Weaver - 4.5 strikeouts

MIA Hitter Projections

1. Luis Arraez: 4.75 PA, 1.41 H, 2.05 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.63 FPts

2. Jorge Soler: 4.66 PA, 1.02 H, 2.18 TB, 0.31 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.27 FPts

3. Josh Bell: 4.53 PA, 1.07 H, 1.95 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.87 FPts

4. Jazz Chisholm: 4.2 PA, 1.07 H, 2.18 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.27 SB, 11.4 FPts

5. Jake Burger: 4.26 PA, 1.07 H, 2.3 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.08 FPts

6. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.23 PA, 1.1 H, 1.98 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.84 FPts

7. Jesus Sanchez: 3.93 PA, 0.96 H, 1.78 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.21 FPts

8. Joey Wendle: 3.84 PA, 0.94 H, 1.42 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.02 FPts

9. Nick Fortes: 3.67 PA, 0.84 H, 1.38 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.66 FPts

CIN Hitter Projections

1. Elly De La Cruz: 4.51 PA, 1.05 H, 1.75 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.56 FPts

2. Nick Senzel: 4.26 PA, 0.98 H, 1.49 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.07 FPts

3. Matt McLain: 4.3 PA, 1.05 H, 1.9 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.97 FPts

4. Spencer Steer: 4.21 PA, 0.93 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.29 FPts

5. Kevin Newman: 4.02 PA, 1.1 H, 1.65 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.55 FPts

6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 4.0 PA, 0.96 H, 1.8 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.5 FPts

7. TJ Friedl: 3.81 PA, 0.9 H, 1.3 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.57 FPts

8. Stuart Fairchild: 3.45 PA, 0.76 H, 1.37 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.55 FPts

9. Luke Maile: 3.25 PA, 0.71 H, 1.21 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.26 FPts

Best Bets

Jazz Chisholm MIA - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-140.0) - 0.135 value

Josh Bell MIA - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-145.0) - 0.113 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

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