DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 11th
Slate Preview 8/11/2023
DFS Preview
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
SD (vs. Ryne Nelson): 76.86 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Tylor Megill): 75.95 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Dallas Keuchel): 75.37 Projected Points
TOR (vs. Javier Assad): 72.8 Projected Points
STL (vs. Angel Zerpa): 72.6 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
LAA (vs. Justin Verlander): 55.68 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Corbin Burnes): 56.11 Projected Points
COL (vs. Lance Lynn): 56.36 Projected Points
BAL (vs. Luis Castillo): 58.72 Projected Points
WSH (vs. Paul Blackburn): 59.09 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
This is new, it takes today’s team projection for every team and compares it to the season average projection, and then shows the top five teams sorted by how far above their average is, here you go:
SD: 76.86 Today, 66.67 Season Average
PHI: 75.37 Today, 65.54 Season Average
STL: 72.6 Today, 66.08 Season Average
DET: 61.27 Today, 55.03 Season Average
ATL: 75.95 Today, 70.39 Season Average
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Lance Lynn: 21.41 Today, 21.40 Previous Max
Xzavion Curry: 9.35 Today, 5.86 Previous Max
Alec Bohm: 8.23 Today, 8.19 Previous Max
Ryan Jeffers: 7.34 Today, 7.24 Previous Max
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Lance Lynn $8900.0 vs. COL: 21.41 points
Luis Castillo $10000.0 vs. BAL: 18.6 points
Corbin Burnes $11200.0 vs. CWS: 18.58 points
Blake Snell $10600.0 vs. ARI: 18.56 points
Andrew Abbott $9800.0 vs. PIT: 16.83 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Lance Lynn $8900.0 vs. COL: 21.41 points, 2.41 value
Johan Oviedo $7000.0 vs. CIN: 14.73 points, 2.10 value
Kyle Gibson $7700.0 vs. SEA: 15.46 points, 2.01 value
Tarik Skubal $7500.0 vs. BOS: 14.51 points, 1.93 value
Joan Adon $6600.0 vs. OAK: 12.64 points, 1.92 value
You can see that the model is in love with $8,900 Lynn at home against the Rockies. Makes sense to me, so I’m absolutely trusting the projections here.
The SP2 slow is a bit more up for debate. Oviedo has been putting up big scores lately but has just an 11.5% K-B% on the year. He’s been better lately, but it’s still just a 14% K-BB% in his last 10 starts (22% K%). He’s got some good stuff, he’s averaging 95+ pitches per outing, and the Reds are not a super imposing lineup away from home - so it’s a decent play at $7,000. But it could definitely go poorly and that would be a tough pill to swallow on a big slate like this when I doubt many people will be on Oviedo.
You could cram in Castillo for $10,000 or Burnes way up there at $11,200 - but that would be a lot of cash to spend at SP. Let’s see what hitting likes before making the decision final.
SP1: Lynn
SP2: Oviedo?
Catchers
1. J.T. Realmuto ($5000.0) vs. Dallas Keuchel: 9.24 points, 1.29 score
2. Willson Contreras ($3500.0) vs. Angel Zerpa: 7.96 points, 1.24 score
3. Alejandro Kirk ($3200.0) vs. Javier Assad: 7.77 points, 1.18 score
4. Will Smith ($5500.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 8.58 points, 1.12 score
5. William Contreras ($5000.0) vs. Michael Kopech: 8.54 points, 1.12 score
It would be nice to be able to get up to Realmuto here against Keuchel - but that’s certainly not something we can if we’re spending $20K at pitcher. There’s not a real standout cheap play either. Ryan Jeffers is down at $3,300 and that guy can hit the long ball - but he’s against Sanchez who is a ground-baller, so yeah - pretty gross position tonight. Let’s try to get Realmuto.
First Base
1. Brandon Belt ($3200.0) vs. Javier Assad: 8.5 points, 1.33 score
2. Seth Brown ($3400.0) vs. Joan Adon: 7.99 points, 1.27 score
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5100.0) vs. Javier Assad: 9.47 points, 1.27 score
4. Ji-Man Choi ($2400.0) vs. Ryne Nelson: 7.07 points, 1.24 score
5. Freddie Freeman ($6200.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 9.45 points, 1.19 score
Belt has been the top man a bunch this year, and I don’t think it’s ever gone well. He has a high barrel rate (12%) but a high K% (35%), all things together it’s an .813 OPS on the year.
I might personally prefer Ji-Man Choi here at $2,400 against Nelson. We’ll have to see that lineup first. The problem with Choi is that he’s been subbed out in every single start with the Padres so far, so as soon as the D’Backs would bring in a lefty he’d presumedly be gone. The Snakes have two lefties in that bullpen, so I don’t think we’re getting a full game out of Choi - but for $2,400 in a great matchup he’s still considerable.
The Athletics are also in a great spot despite what Joan Adon did in his first outing. That pushes Seth Brown up to a higher-than-normal projection, this game is also in DC which is a plus. Brown might be our play at 1B.
So right now in my main lineup this is where I’m at:
SP1 Lynn
SP2 Oviedo
C Realmuto
1B Brown
Second Base
1. Mookie Betts ($6500.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 10.76 points, 1.32 score
2. Nolan Gorman ($4300.0) vs. Angel Zerpa: 8.83 points, 1.23 score
3. Jorge Polanco ($4400.0) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 8.95 points, 1.23 score
4. Jose Altuve ($5400.0) vs. Reid Detmers: 9.48 points, 1.23 score
5. Ha-Seong Kim ($5000.0) vs. Ryne Nelson: 9.04 points, 1.13 score
The price is pretty wild on Betts there but the algo doesn’t care, still making Betts its top price-considered play. The Dodgers are obviously in a smash spot against Gomber & the Rockies bullpen. So some Dodgers righties are a priority, but I don’t know if I’ll be able to find $6500.
The other options aren’t very appealing. Zerpa is an opener for the Royals, and the weather looks bad there - so the chances of Gorman facing a couple of lefties or that game just getting washed out are high - so I don’t think he’s in the cards. It looks like we should just cram in Betts.
Third Base
1. Edmundo Sosa ($2100.0) vs. Dallas Keuchel: 6.99 points, 1.26 score
2. Jorge Polanco ($4400.0) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 8.95 points, 1.23 score
3. Manny Machado ($5600.0) vs. Ryne Nelson: 9.01 points, 1.18 score
4. Kyle Farmer ($3000.0) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 7.78 points, 1.15 score
5. Chris Taylor ($3400.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 7.66 points, 1.14 score
The model wants us to go to the Padres, but $5,600 for Machado isn’t something I think is a lock play. We’ve spent a good bit of cash with Realmuto+Betts so far, so let’s roll with this cheap top play here in Sosa. He has just a .671 OPS on the year (.682 against lefties), but this is a great spot for the Phillies - so I’m fine with paying down for someone in that lineup.
Shortstop
1. Trea Turner ($5200.0) vs. Dallas Keuchel: 9.59 points, 1.26 score
2. Corey Seager ($6300.0) vs. Ross Stripling: 9.68 points, 1.17 score
3. Elly De La Cruz ($6000.0) vs. Johan Oviedo: 8.44 points, 1.14 score
4. Bobby Witt Jr. ($5800.0) vs. Adam Wainwright: 9.34 points, 1.11 score
5. Amed Rosario ($4200.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 8.28 points, 1.1 score
Hello Trea Turner! The model has been smart enough to pick up on Trea’s reduced performance this year - so we haven’t seen him in the top plays for a couple of months, but here we go! He’s almost certainly not going to strike out against Keuchel, and he’s been back in a prominent spot in that lineup. The price is also pretty affordable given his struggles this year - so there we go. Maybe it’s a Trea night.
I can’t say too much bad stuff about Seager, but if I’m going to pay way, way up for a hitter - I usually like it to be a guy that can also steal a bag. That helps us get some points in those games where they get walked a couple of times - and Seager doesn’t give us that. So let’s go with Trea to pair with Realmuto & Sosa.
Outfield
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6100.0) vs. Ryne Nelson: 11.07 points, 1.44 score
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6700.0) vs. Tylor Megill: 11.77 points, 1.43 score
3. Juan Soto ($5700.0) vs. Ryne Nelson: 10.54 points, 1.36 score
4. Kyle Schwarber ($5100.0) vs. Dallas Keuchel: 9.91 points, 1.36 score
5. Mookie Betts ($6500.0) vs. Austin Gomber: 10.76 points, 1.32 score
6. Tyler O'Neill ($3700.0) vs. Angel Zerpa: 8.52 points, 1.27 score
7. Seth Brown ($3400.0) vs. Joan Adon: 7.99 points, 1.27 score
8. Jordan Luplow ($2200.0) vs. Cristopher Sanchez: 7.36 points, 1.27 score
9. Johan Rojas ($2500.0) vs. Dallas Keuchel: 7.81 points, 1.26 score
10. Kyle Tucker ($5700.0) vs. Reid Detmers: 9.62 points, 1.23 score
11. Weston Wilson ($2800.0) vs. Dallas Keuchel: 7.96 points, 1.21 score
12. Lars Nootbaar ($4600.0) vs. Angel Zerpa: 8.97 points, 1.2 score
13. Dominic Canzone ($2500.0) vs. Kyle Gibson: 7.55 points, 1.19 score
14. Tommy Pham ($3400.0) vs. Blake Snell: 8.13 points, 1.19 score
15. Rob Refsnyder ($3000.0) vs. Tarik Skubal: 7.88 points, 1.18 score
All of this leaves us with $3,966 per OF slot. This isn’t the best way to build a lineup, I’ll admit. We should look at all of the positions first and then decide where to spend our money.
So, looking at this with some fresh eyes, the Tatis + Soto combo is a pretty enticing thing to do against Nelson - but that would probably just turn into a Padres stack and then we’d bail on Betts/Realmuto in all likelihood.
I think I’ll make a few lineups tonight and go after the Padres stack, but for the main lineup, I need to find another cheapie or two.
We could also play Seth Brown here and go with Choi at 1B - that would give us a lot of freedom.
We have two more cheap Phillies here with Weston Williams (.884 OPS in AAA, 25 HR + 23 SB) and Johan Rojas. I’m more interested in Williams there.
I’m going to pretty much leave it to you guys to make your own lineup decisions here, there are a ton of different ways to go on a 13-game slate, but this fit together pretty well so this will be rough draft recommendation:
SP1 Lance Lynn
SP2 Johan Oviedo
C JT Realmuto
1B Seth Brown
2B Mookie Betts
3B Edmundo Sosa
SS Trea Turner
OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
OF Weston Wilson
OF Rob Refsnyder
My second lineup, going for more upside here, will be Padres + Athletics.
SP1 Tarik Skubal
SP2 Kyle Gibson
C Tyler Soderstrom
1B Ji-Man Choi
2B Zack Gelof
3B Manny Machado
SS Xander Bogaerts
OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
OF Juan Soto
OF JJ Bleday
Okay, that’s it for the DFS talk, let’s do the rest of the post. Full projections & picks for each game, with a paywall in the middle - and then the model best bets are given out at the bottom. Subscribe today - it’s worth it and we’ve got 7 weeks left of regular season baseball.
Game by Game Previews
CLE @ TB
Projected Game Score:
TB 4.62 - CLE 4.2
TB 52.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.82
2023 Pitcher Stats
Aaron Civale: 14 GS, 1273 Pitches, 18.9 K%, 6.7 BB%, 10.1 SwStr%, 46.7 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%, 39.8 GB%, 5 Brl%
Xzavion Curry: 4 GS, 978 Pitches, 16.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 11.1 SwStr%, 45.9 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%, 31.2 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Aaron Civale (TB): 88 Pitches 5.35 IP, 5.6 H, 2.6 ER, 4.3 K, 1.4 BB, 12.42 FPts
Xzavion Curry (CLE): 66 Pitches 4.24 IP, 4.2 H, 2.2 ER, 3.5 K, 1.4 BB, 9.35 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Aaron Civale - 4.5 strikeouts
Xzavion Curry - 3.5 strikeouts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.48 PA, 1.16 H, 1.62 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.13 FPts
2. Andres Gimenez: 4.35 PA, 1.07 H, 1.76 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.54 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.27 PA, 1.09 H, 1.9 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.19 SB, 9.53 FPts
4. Oscar Gonzalez: 4.09 PA, 1.04 H, 1.63 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.6 FPts
5. Kole Calhoun: 4.07 PA, 0.82 H, 1.42 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.29 FPts
6. Ramon Laureano: 3.84 PA, 0.79 H, 1.41 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.7 FPts
7. Brayan Rocchio: 3.85 PA, 0.85 H, 1.28 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.26 FPts
8. Will Brennan: 3.64 PA, 1.01 H, 1.47 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.33 FPts
9. Bo Naylor: 3.41 PA, 0.71 H, 1.27 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.84 FPts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.41 PA, 1.09 H, 1.7 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.3 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.36 PA, 1.15 H, 1.85 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.17 SB, 9.26 FPts
3. Brandon Lowe: 4.18 PA, 0.87 H, 1.65 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.02 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.21 PA, 0.95 H, 1.64 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.74 FPts
5. Isaac Paredes: 4.0 PA, 0.8 H, 1.37 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.68 FPts
6. Luke Raley: 3.78 PA, 0.82 H, 1.52 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.12 FPts
7. Jose Siri: 3.86 PA, 0.76 H, 1.37 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.64 FPts
8. Josh Lowe: 3.63 PA, 0.85 H, 1.48 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.34 FPts
9. Rene Pinto: 3.51 PA, 0.63 H, 1.18 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.06 FPts
Best Bets
Aaron Civale TB - Outs Under 17.5 (+105.0) - 0.167 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
NYY @ MIA
Projected Game Score:
NYY 3.76 - MIA 3.74
NYY 50.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 7.5
2023 Pitcher Stats
Jesus Luzardo: 23 GS, 2179 Pitches, 28.9 K%, 6.7 BB%, 15.4 SwStr%, 49.2 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%, 42.9 GB%, 10 Brl%
Randy Vasquez: 3 GS, 245 Pitches, 15.4 K%, 10.8 BB%, 8.2 SwStr%, 44.9 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%, 38.6 GB%, 2 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 97 Pitches 5.98 IP, 5.6 H, 2.7 ER, 6.8 K, 1.7 BB, 18.03 FPts
Randy Vasquez (NYY): 75 Pitches 4.65 IP, 4.9 H, 2.3 ER, 4.5 K, 1.6 BB, 11.47 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jesus Luzardo - 6.5 strikeouts
Randy Vasquez - 4.5 strikeouts
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 4.27 PA, 1.04 H, 1.47 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.1 FPts
2. Aaron Judge: 4.28 PA, 1.06 H, 2.32 TB, 0.33 HR, 0.06 SB, 9.96 FPts
3. Gleyber Torres: 4.19 PA, 1.01 H, 1.7 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.69 FPts
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 4.05 PA, 0.78 H, 1.69 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.31 FPts
5. D.J. LeMahieu: 3.98 PA, 0.88 H, 1.34 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.27 FPts
6. Harrison Bader: 3.8 PA, 0.88 H, 1.36 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.39 FPts
7. Anthony Volpe: 3.78 PA, 0.71 H, 1.23 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.21 FPts
8. Oswaldo Cabrera: 3.63 PA, 0.67 H, 1.07 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.17 FPts
9. Kyle Higashioka: 3.26 PA, 0.66 H, 1.16 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.7 FPts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Jorge Soler: 4.41 PA, 0.87 H, 1.66 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.28 FPts
2. Luis Arraez: 4.29 PA, 1.28 H, 1.76 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.6 FPts
3. Josh Bell: 4.19 PA, 0.93 H, 1.53 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.14 FPts
4. Jazz Chisholm: 3.89 PA, 0.9 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.25 SB, 8.4 FPts
5. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.01 PA, 0.98 H, 1.6 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.77 FPts
6. Jesus Sanchez: 3.72 PA, 0.84 H, 1.42 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.17 FPts
7. Jake Burger: 3.74 PA, 0.84 H, 1.64 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.55 FPts
8. Joey Wendle: 3.56 PA, 0.89 H, 1.25 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.66 FPts
9. Nick Fortes: 3.38 PA, 0.74 H, 1.1 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.07 FPts
Best Bets
Jesus Luzardo MIA - Walks Under 2.5 (-130.0) - 0.182 value
Aaron Judge NYY - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.121 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
OAK @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
OAK 3.9 - WSH 3.6
OAK 52.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 7.5
2023 Pitcher Stats
Joan Adon: 1 GS, 173 Pitches, 26.8 K%, 4.9 BB%, 9.8 SwStr%, 51.4 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%, 50.0 GB%, 11 Brl%
Paul Blackburn: 11 GS, 1088 Pitches, 23.3 K%, 7.8 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 46.0 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 41.2 GB%, 6 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Joan Adon (WSH): 84 Pitches 5.26 IP, 4.9 H, 2.6 ER, 4.8 K, 2.0 BB, 12.64 FPts
Paul Blackburn (OAK): 100 Pitches 5.97 IP, 6.6 H, 2.8 ER, 4.3 K, 1.3 BB, 12.32 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Joan Adon - 5.5 strikeouts
Paul Blackburn - 3.5 strikeouts
OAK Hitter Projections
1. Esteury Ruiz: 4.37 PA, 1.07 H, 1.52 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.35 SB, 8.38 FPts
2. JJ Bleday: 4.07 PA, 0.69 H, 1.17 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.48 FPts
3. Zack Gelof: 4.18 PA, 0.88 H, 1.64 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.81 FPts
4. Seth Brown: 3.88 PA, 0.86 H, 1.72 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.99 FPts
5. Jordan Diaz: 3.77 PA, 0.95 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.5 FPts
6. Tyler Soderstrom: 3.88 PA, 0.82 H, 1.57 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.61 FPts
7. Shea Langeliers: 3.75 PA, 0.73 H, 1.44 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.99 FPts
8. Lawrence Butler: 3.64 PA, 0.81 H, 1.37 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.6 FPts
9. Nick Allen: 3.3 PA, 0.71 H, 1.01 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.07 SB, 4.8 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.36 PA, 1.11 H, 1.75 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.15 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.29 PA, 1.01 H, 1.74 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.59 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.19 PA, 1.07 H, 1.69 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.94 FPts
4. Keibert Ruiz: 4.11 PA, 1.06 H, 1.68 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.14 FPts
5. Dominic Smith: 4.0 PA, 0.95 H, 1.35 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.96 FPts
6. Ildemaro Vargas: 3.9 PA, 0.95 H, 1.39 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.86 FPts
7. Jake Alu: 3.79 PA, 0.91 H, 1.39 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.2 FPts
8. Blake Rutherford: 3.66 PA, 0.89 H, 1.44 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.02 FPts
9. Alex Call: 3.37 PA, 0.68 H, 1.05 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.23 FPts
Best Bets
Tyler Soderstrom OAK - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.15 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Seth Brown (OAK) 1B/OF $3400: 7.99 Proj, 1.27 Score
Esteury Ruiz (OAK) OF $4200: 8.38 Proj, 1.15 Score
Lawrence Butler (OAK) OF $2000: 6.6 Proj, 1.15 Score
JJ Bleday (OAK) OF $2800: 6.48 Proj, 1.05 Score
C.J. Abrams (WSH) SS $4400: 8.15 Proj, 1.03 Score
MIN @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
PHI 5.52 - MIN 4.53
PHI 54.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.05
2023 Pitcher Stats
Cristopher Sanchez: 10 GS, 787 Pitches, 23.3 K%, 4.4 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 48.9 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%, 57.5 GB%, 10 Brl%
Dallas Keuchel: 1 GS, 74 Pitches, 0.0 K%, 8.7 BB%, 6.8 SwStr%, 33.8 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%, 61.9 GB%, 0 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 84 Pitches 5.16 IP, 5.2 H, 2.6 ER, 5.0 K, 1.6 BB, 13.01 FPts
Dallas Keuchel (MIN): 75 Pitches 4.5 IP, 5.3 H, 2.6 ER, 3.1 K, 1.6 BB, 7.46 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Cristopher Sanchez - Prop Not Found
Dallas Keuchel - 3.5 strikeouts
MIN Hitter Projections
1. Carlos Correa: 4.55 PA, 1.07 H, 1.83 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.0 SB, 8.31 FPts
2. Jorge Polanco: 4.47 PA, 1.09 H, 2.01 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.95 FPts
3. Kyle Farmer: 4.27 PA, 1.08 H, 1.76 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.78 FPts
4. Jordan Luplow: 4.34 PA, 0.79 H, 1.39 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.36 FPts
5. Ryan Jeffers: 4.17 PA, 0.87 H, 1.61 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.34 FPts
6. Willi Castro: 4.08 PA, 0.96 H, 1.53 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.2 SB, 7.69 FPts
7. Matt Wallner: 3.81 PA, 0.73 H, 1.28 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.05 FPts
8. Christian Vazquez: 3.72 PA, 0.9 H, 1.38 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.21 FPts
9. Michael A. Taylor: 3.29 PA, 0.71 H, 1.25 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.93 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.62 PA, 0.95 H, 2.0 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.91 FPts
2. Alec Bohm: 4.51 PA, 1.18 H, 1.85 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.23 FPts
3. Trea Turner: 4.38 PA, 1.15 H, 1.89 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.22 SB, 9.59 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 4.29 PA, 1.12 H, 1.89 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.49 FPts
5. J.T. Realmuto: 4.16 PA, 1.06 H, 1.92 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.14 SB, 9.24 FPts
6. Rodolfo Castro: 3.93 PA, 0.91 H, 1.57 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.15 FPts
7. Edmundo Sosa: 3.77 PA, 0.95 H, 1.58 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.99 FPts
8. Weston Wilson: 3.84 PA, 0.88 H, 1.62 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.96 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.6 PA, 0.94 H, 1.57 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.81 FPts
Best Bets
None
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $5100: 9.91 Proj, 1.36 Score
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) C $5000: 9.24 Proj, 1.29 Score
Jordan Luplow (MIN) OF $2200: 7.36 Proj, 1.27 Score
Johan Rojas (PHI) OF $2500: 7.81 Proj, 1.26 Score
Trea Turner (PHI) SS $5200: 9.59 Proj, 1.26 Score
CIN @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
CIN 4.26 - PIT 4.03
CIN 51.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.29
2023 Pitcher Stats
Andrew Abbott: 12 GS, 1163 Pitches, 25.6 K%, 9.5 BB%, 12.4 SwStr%, 47.5 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%, 26.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Johan Oviedo: 23 GS, 2131 Pitches, 20.7 K%, 9.2 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 44.8 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%, 44.8 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Andrew Abbott (CIN): 100 Pitches 6.16 IP, 5.0 H, 2.8 ER, 6.3 K, 2.8 BB, 16.83 FPts
Johan Oviedo (PIT): 97 Pitches 5.97 IP, 5.6 H, 3.0 ER, 5.8 K, 2.5 BB, 14.73 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Andrew Abbott - 5.5 strikeouts
Johan Oviedo - 5.5 strikeouts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Elly De La Cruz: 4.39 PA, 1.03 H, 1.62 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.23 SB, 8.44 FPts
2. TJ Friedl: 4.22 PA, 0.99 H, 1.42 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.48 FPts
3. Matt McLain: 4.18 PA, 0.99 H, 1.69 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.09 FPts
4. Spencer Steer: 4.1 PA, 0.87 H, 1.37 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.87 FPts
5. Joey Votto: 3.94 PA, 0.81 H, 1.52 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.36 FPts
6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3.81 PA, 0.88 H, 1.55 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.69 FPts
7. Jonathan India: 3.69 PA, 0.8 H, 1.26 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.19 FPts
8. Tyler Stephenson: 3.56 PA, 0.81 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.82 FPts
9. Will Benson: 3.19 PA, 0.61 H, 0.99 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.84 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 4.38 PA, 1.0 H, 1.54 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.7 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.26 PA, 0.97 H, 1.66 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.8 FPts
3. Andrew McCutchen: 4.2 PA, 0.8 H, 1.33 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.42 FPts
4. Connor Joe: 4.09 PA, 0.83 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.14 FPts
5. Henry Davis: 4.01 PA, 0.83 H, 1.43 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.13 FPts
6. Endy Rodriguez: 3.92 PA, 0.8 H, 1.32 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.2 FPts
7. Jack Suwinski: 3.69 PA, 0.54 H, 1.07 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.98 FPts
8. Jared Triolo: 3.63 PA, 0.7 H, 1.06 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.57 FPts
9. Alika Williams: 3.45 PA, 0.75 H, 1.2 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.62 FPts
Best Bets
Ke'Bryan Hayes PIT - H+R+RBI Under 2.5 (-165.0) - 0.109 value
Andrew McCutchen PIT - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.106 value
Andrew Abbott CIN - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (+100.0) - 0.1 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 3B/SS $6000: 8.44 Proj, 1.14 Score
Connor Joe (PIT) 1B/OF $3000: 7.14 Proj, 1.08 Score
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) 3B $3400: 7.7 Proj, 1.06 Score
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) OF $3500: 7.42 Proj, 1.05 Score
Matt McLain (CIN) 2B/SS $5800: 8.09 Proj, 1.04 Score
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