DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 21st
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
DFS Preview
We are down to just seven games after the CIN/LAA game got canceled after the storm in LA last night. But the good news is that it should stay like that as there’s no rain anywhere tonight.
We have the usual suspects on top of the hitter projections, with the Padres, Braves, and Rangers reaching the top.
The Padres and Rangers stand out above their season average, as seen in the third grouping here:
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
SD (vs. Ryan Weathers): 76.17 Projected Points
ATL (vs. David Peterson): 75.12 Projected Points
TEX (vs. Slade Cecconi): 72.99 Projected Points
HOU (vs. James Paxton): 70.83 Projected Points
SEA (vs. Touki Toussaint): 70.08 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
CWS (vs. Luis Castillo): 53.15 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Tucker Davidson): 57.17 Projected Points
SF (vs. Aaron Nola): 59.23 Projected Points
CHC (vs. Alex Faedo): 60.32 Projected Points
DET (vs. Javier Assad): 61.46 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
SD: 76.17 Today, 67.01 Season Average
TEX: 72.99 Today, 64.79 Season Average
DET: 61.46 Today, 55.18 Season Average
HOU: 70.83 Today, 64.67 Season Average
SEA: 70.08 Today, 64.11 Season Average
We lost Giolito, who was projecting very well at home against the Reds, and that makes the pitching slate pretty tough.
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Lucas Giolito: 19.31 Today, 18.73 Previous Max
Paul Blackburn: 15.51 Today, 13.9 Previous Max
Graham Ashcraft: 13.83 Today, 13.35 Previous Max
Javier Assad: 12.38 Today, 11.44 Previous Max
Ha-Seong Kim: 9.67 Today, 9.54 Previous Max
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Lucas Giolito $9300.0 vs. CIN: 19.31 points
Luis Castillo $10300.0 vs. CWS: 18.31 points
Paul Blackburn $7000.0 vs. KC: 15.51 points
Cristian Javier $7100.0 vs. BOS: 14.35 points
Graham Ashcraft $8500.0 vs. LAA: 13.83 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Drew Rom $4000.0 vs. PIT: 12.17 points, 3.04 value
Paul Blackburn $7000.0 vs. KC: 15.51 points, 2.22 value
Lucas Giolito $9300.0 vs. CIN: 19.31 points, 2.08 value
Ryan Weathers $5100.0 vs. SD: 10.53 points, 2.06 value
Cristian Javier $7100.0 vs. BOS: 14.35 points, 2.02 value
With Giolito being gone, Luis Castillo is the top dog by a large margin. He gets the great matchup against the White Sox who are just leaving Coors Field. He’ll be really, really popular - but there’s just really no way around him in cash games or smaller-field contests, so I’ll be loading up.
We have a $4,000 pitcher here in Drew Rom. He has made 20 starts in AAA (he was traded from the Orioles to the Cardinals in the Flaherty deal):
20 GS, 4.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 26.8% K%, 11.4% BB%, 10.4% SwStr%, 48% GB%
So a 10.4% SwStr% is very low, but the 27% K% is pretty high. We see a high walk rate there as well, so I don’t think we should have very high hopes for Rom tonight. However, he is $4,000 on a slate without much great pitching, so he is in the conversation for sure.
If you want to pay down a bit but don’t want to go to Rom, the man for you may be Paul Blackburn who is in this nice spot at home against the Royals. Blackburn isn’t great but he’s also not completely awful at a 23% K%, averaging 14.9 DraftKings points per start. Add a little bit of a Royals boost to that and you have a pretty good projection for a guy priced at $7,000.
Another option is Allan Winans for $7,500 against the Mets. He’s made two starts and has a 14.5% SwStr% on the year. He threw 111 pitches last time out as well, so there’s not a short leash on him to say the least. The problem there is this guy had just a 22.7% K% in 113 AAA innings - so there’s no way he’s really a high strikeout pitcher in the Majors. That’s enough for me to fade him since there’s a good chance he’ll garner some ownership.
The cash duo is pretty clear, it’s Castillo + Blackburn.
The GPP pool I’d use:
Castillo, Blackburn, Paxton, Wacha, Peterson, Rom
Moving on to hitters!
Catchers
1. Yainer Diaz ($3800.0) vs. James Paxton: 8.48 points, 1.19 score
2. Mitch Garver ($3600.0) vs. Slade Cecconi: 7.61 points, 1.15 score
3. Willson Contreras ($4000.0) vs. Thomas Hatch: 7.6 points, 1.12 score
4. Cal Raleigh ($4500.0) vs. Touki Toussaint: 8.05 points, 1.1 score
5. Gabriel Moreno ($2500.0) vs. Jordan Montgomery: 6.55 points, 1.07 score
The model really has liked picking some bats against Paxton, and that hasn’t worked out super well this year. But also, DraftKings should be pricing Yainer Diaz higher than it has been. His price is up a few hundred dollars here, but still below $4,000 - so I agree that he’s the top play there.
Mitch Garver is a close second, so I’ll be trying to get one of those two in the lineup.
First Base
1. Shohei Ohtani ($6700.0) vs. Graham Ashcraft: 11.0 points, 1.35 score
2. Yainer Diaz ($3800.0) vs. James Paxton: 8.48 points, 1.19 score
3. Pete Alonso ($5300.0) vs. Allan Winans: 9.01 points, 1.16 score
4. Josh Bell ($3500.0) vs. Michael Wacha: 7.97 points, 1.12 score
5. Nathaniel Lowe ($4500.0) vs. Slade Cecconi: 8.56 points, 1.11 score
I think a little Mets stack against Winans is a nice angle to take here, but Alonso never really profiles as a fantastic one-off cash play at first base given the price and lack of steals. He’s really reliant on the long ball, but again - a Mets stack is an interesting idea tonight.
But that said, there’s not much to like at first base tonight, so it’s probably either going to be Alonso or Bell for me. Let’s try to squeeze Pete into this for now.
Second Base
1. Ji Hwan Bae ($2700.0) vs. Drew Rom: 7.81 points, 1.28 score
2. Ha-Seong Kim ($4700.0) vs. Ryan Weathers: 9.67 points, 1.25 score
3. Jose Altuve ($6400.0) vs. James Paxton: 9.52 points, 1.16 score
4. Brandon Drury ($4000.0) vs. Graham Ashcraft: 7.78 points, 1.13 score
5. Marcus Semien ($5700.0) vs. Slade Cecconi: 8.83 points, 1.1 score
Bae has been at the top of the second base ranks for a few days now at this very low price and in a lead-off role. He has very, very little power - but he will steal a base any time he gets the chance and the lead-off spot is just so hard to pass up on when the price is $2,700. But I don’t think I’d go there in a tournament.
Third Base
1. Manny Machado ($5300.0) vs. Ryan Weathers: 9.42 points, 1.26 score
2. Ha-Seong Kim ($4700.0) vs. Ryan Weathers: 9.67 points, 1.25 score
3. Rafael Devers ($5700.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 9.27 points, 1.11 score
4. Jake Burger ($4000.0) vs. Michael Wacha: 8.05 points, 1.11 score
5. Nolan Arenado ($5600.0) vs. Thomas Hatch: 8.29 points, 1.07 score
It’s all about the Padres here against the lefty. I also like the Jake Burger play against Wacha. He has been really limiting the strikeout for about a month now, and Wacha can give up the long ball.
But again, no real standout plays here. It feels like a better night to just build a few different stacks and attack tournaments that way.
Shortstop
1. Corey Seager ($6600.0) vs. Slade Cecconi: 10.65 points, 1.29 score
2. Francisco Lindor ($5100.0) vs. Allan Winans: 9.11 points, 1.22 score
3. Tommy Edman ($4300.0) vs. Thomas Hatch: 8.9 points, 1.18 score
4. Xander Bogaerts ($4600.0) vs. Ryan Weathers: 8.76 points, 1.18 score
5. Bobby Witt Jr. ($6200.0) vs. Paul Blackburn: 8.82 points, 1.1 score
Seager’s price is pretty out of control for a guy that doesn’t steal bags, but there he is at the top anyways! If Edman is leading off, he projects just fine against this Pirates bullpen game, but I’m not sure if that will be the case.
I might lean into the Mets thing and cram in Lindor here in my “main” lineup.
Outfield
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6800.0) vs. David Peterson: 12.24 points, 1.47 score
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6300.0) vs. Ryan Weathers: 11.31 points, 1.45 score
3. Shohei Ohtani ($6700.0) vs. Graham Ashcraft: 11.0 points, 1.35 score
4. Ji Hwan Bae ($2700.0) vs. Drew Rom: 7.81 points, 1.28 score
5. Juan Soto ($5800.0) vs. Ryan Weathers: 10.02 points, 1.27 score
6. Julio Rodriguez ($5900.0) vs. Touki Toussaint: 10.0 points, 1.23 score
7. Michael Harris II ($4800.0) vs. David Peterson: 9.26 points, 1.19 score
8. Kyle Tucker ($6100.0) vs. James Paxton: 9.58 points, 1.18 score
9. Tommy Edman ($4300.0) vs. Thomas Hatch: 8.9 points, 1.18 score
10. Rafael Ortega ($2500.0) vs. Allan Winans: 7.15 points, 1.15 score
11. Adolis Garcia ($5600.0) vs. Slade Cecconi: 9.31 points, 1.15 score
12. Yordan Alvarez ($6000.0) vs. James Paxton: 9.26 points, 1.15 score
13. Jazz Chisholm ($5000.0) vs. Michael Wacha: 9.03 points, 1.14 score
14. Teoscar Hernandez ($4000.0) vs. Touki Toussaint: 7.62 points, 1.1 score
15. Tyler O'Neill ($3700.0) vs. Thomas Hatch: 7.43 points, 1.09 score
So we haven’t found many cheap plays we like yet, and there’s not much redemption here. You could outright punt one slot to get some money back with Richie Palacios $2,000 or Rafael Ortega $2,500 or Kyle Lewis $2,400. I think I will slide in Palacios there so we can get to Acuna Jr. to have some kind of huge upside in this lineup.
So I had to get off Alonso make this work, but here’s a cash lineup I think is solid enough to recommend
SP1 Castillo
SP2 Blackburn
C Garver
1B Bell
2B Bae
3B Machado
SS Lindor
OF Acuna Jr.
OF Richie Palacios
OF Tyler O’Neill
But again, it feels more like a night to try a few different team stacks. Here’s that Mets stack I hinted at earlier:
SP Wacha
SP Blackburn
C Alvarez
1B Alonso
2B McNeil
3B Hayes
SS Lindor
OF Nimmo
OF Joe
OF Bae
On to the game-by-game previews!
Game by Game Previews
CHC @ DET
Projected Game Score:
DET 3.94 - CHC 3.8
DET 51.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 7.74
2023 Pitcher Stats
Javier Assad: 4 GS, 1041 Pitches, 18.1 K%, 10.0 BB%, 8.3 SwStr%, 41.9 Strike%, 39.5 Ball%, 46.4 GB%, 8 Brl%
Alex Faedo: 9 GS, 728 Pitches, 22.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 10.9 SwStr%, 48.1 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%, 35.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Javier Assad (CHC): 83 Pitches 4.99 IP, 4.8 H, 2.3 ER, 4.6 K, 1.9 BB, 12.38 FPts
Alex Faedo (DET): 85 Pitches 5.02 IP, 4.7 H, 2.3 ER, 4.4 K, 1.8 BB, 12.29 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Javier Assad - 3.5 strikeouts
Alex Faedo - 4.5 strikeouts
CHC Hitter Projections
1. Mike Tauchman: 4.25 PA, 0.9 H, 1.39 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.08 FPts
2. Nico Hoerner: 4.13 PA, 1.02 H, 1.47 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.2 SB, 7.47 FPts
3. Ian Happ: 4.03 PA, 0.85 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.25 FPts
4. Cody Bellinger: 3.94 PA, 0.9 H, 1.49 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.18 FPts
5. Dansby Swanson: 3.82 PA, 0.9 H, 1.55 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.2 FPts
6. Christopher Morel: 3.76 PA, 0.83 H, 1.58 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.97 FPts
7. Jeimer Candelario: 3.64 PA, 0.83 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.11 FPts
8. Seiya Suzuki: 3.55 PA, 0.82 H, 1.38 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.32 FPts
9. Yan Gomes: 3.23 PA, 0.73 H, 1.15 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.74 FPts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Akil Baddoo: 4.25 PA, 0.86 H, 1.31 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.19 SB, 7.46 FPts
2. Riley Greene: 4.47 PA, 1.09 H, 1.73 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.11 FPts
3. Matt Vierling: 4.33 PA, 1.03 H, 1.5 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.26 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.3 PA, 0.89 H, 1.59 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.42 FPts
5. Kerry Carpenter: 4.03 PA, 0.98 H, 1.7 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.36 FPts
6. Miguel Cabrera: 3.98 PA, 0.88 H, 1.25 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.54 FPts
7. Javier Baez: 3.88 PA, 0.9 H, 1.44 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.56 FPts
8. Zach McKinstry: 3.65 PA, 0.75 H, 1.23 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.07 FPts
9. Jake Rogers: 3.48 PA, 0.69 H, 1.26 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.68 FPts
Best Bets
Javier Assad CHC - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-130.0) - 0.101 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
SF @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
PHI 4.0 - SF 3.86
PHI 50.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.86
2023 Pitcher Stats
Aaron Nola: 25 GS, 2430 Pitches, 25.0 K%, 6.2 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 49.5 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%, 40.7 GB%, 8 Brl%
Scott Alexander: 6 GS, 517 Pitches, 14.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 44.5 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%, 62.1 GB%, 4 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Aaron Nola (PHI): 96 Pitches 5.97 IP, 5.6 H, 2.6 ER, 6.3 K, 1.7 BB, 17.18 FPts
Scott Alexander (SF): 35 Pitches 2.05 IP, 2.3 H, 1.0 ER, 1.5 K, 0.4 BB, 4.69 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Aaron Nola - 6.5 strikeouts
Scott Alexander - Prop Not Found
SF Hitter Projections
1. LaMonte Wade Jr.: 4.29 PA, 0.92 H, 1.66 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.7 FPts
2. Wade Meckler: 4.4 PA, 0.91 H, 1.43 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.57 FPts
3. Wilmer Flores: 4.27 PA, 0.99 H, 1.73 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.33 FPts
4. Joc Pederson: 3.99 PA, 0.94 H, 1.76 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.01 FPts
5. Michael Conforto: 3.94 PA, 0.88 H, 1.51 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.91 FPts
6. J.D. Davis: 3.92 PA, 0.8 H, 1.33 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.89 FPts
7. Patrick Bailey: 3.82 PA, 0.94 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.56 FPts
8. Johan Camargo: 3.74 PA, 0.75 H, 1.04 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.49 FPts
9. Thairo Estrada: 3.5 PA, 0.79 H, 1.2 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.77 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.29 PA, 0.83 H, 1.69 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.14 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.16 PA, 1.08 H, 1.69 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.16 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.04 PA, 0.99 H, 1.63 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.05 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 3.98 PA, 1.01 H, 1.64 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.04 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 3.9 PA, 1.02 H, 1.47 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.0 FPts
6. Alec Bohm: 3.79 PA, 0.97 H, 1.44 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.12 FPts
7. J.T. Realmuto: 3.66 PA, 0.9 H, 1.55 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.16 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.48 PA, 0.81 H, 1.24 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.95 FPts
9. Jake Cave: 3.15 PA, 0.7 H, 1.15 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.15 FPts
Best Bets
Brandon Marsh PHI - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.124 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
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