DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 14th

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

Jon A

Aug 14, 2023

∙ Paid

Slate Preview 8/14/2023

Nine-game slate on this Monday night with no weather concerns at all - it’s a good one to dive into!

Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

STL (vs. JP Sears): 77.37 Projected Points

ARI (vs. Chris Flexen): 77.19 Projected Points

SD (vs. Grayson Rodriguez): 75.68 Projected Points

ATL (vs. Clarke Schmidt): 74.49 Projected Points

TEX (vs. Patrick Sandoval): 67.38 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

OAK (vs. Miles Mikolas): 55.76 Projected Points

LAA (vs. Max Scherzer): 57.38 Projected Points

MIA (vs. Framber Valdez): 58.54 Projected Points

COL (vs. Merrill Kelly): 59.46 Projected Points

TB (vs. Ryan Walker): 59.99 Projected Points

Team Projections vs. Season Averages

ARI: 77.19 Today, 62.35 Season Average

STL: 77.37 Today, 66.12 Season Average

SD: 75.68 Today, 66.82 Season Average

ATL: 74.49 Today, 70.39 Season Average

PIT: 63.83 Today, 60.58 Season Average

Clearly, the top spots are the Diamondbacks against Flexen and the Cardinals against Sears. Flexen has been crushed this year with a .393 xwOBA against and just a 14% K%, so the Snakes are set up real, real nicely here in Coors Field.

The Cardinals project well, but it’s not nearly as great of a matchup compared to Flexen as Sears has been decent this year and doesn’t have any big problem with right-handed batters or anything like that - but it’s always very good to face the Athletics pitching staff which is dead last in the league in ERA - and the game is in St. Louis which is a plus as well.

Price-considered values shows the Pirates at the top against Carlos Carrasco, who has been bad this year. The Pirates projected lineup costs just $27,200, just over $3,000 per player. So we can go Diamondbacks+Pirates for chalk+savings - that’s probably where I’m headed, but let’s get to the position breakdowns.

DFS Top Plays by Position

Pitchers - Raw Projections

Max Scherzer $11000.0 vs. LAA: 20.39 points

Tyler Glasnow $10800.0 vs. SF: 18.91 points

Merrill Kelly $8100.0 vs. COL: 17.3 points

Logan Gilbert $9700.0 vs. KC: 15.96 points

Framber Valdez $18600.0 vs. MIA: 14.95 points

Pitchers - Top Values

Merrill Kelly $8100.0 vs. COL: 17.3 points, 2.14 value

Miles Mikolas $7000.0 vs. OAK: 14.42 points, 2.06 value

Grayson Rodriguez $6400.0 vs. SD: 12.83 points, 2.0 value

Quinn Priester $5300.0 vs. NYM: 10.34 points, 1.95 value

Max Scherzer $11000.0 vs. LAA: 20.39 points, 1.85 value

If a pitcher ever shows up on both of these above lists, that’s a guy to pull the trigger on. We don’t want to just go after the top raw projection because often times that can just cost too much - and we don’t want to go after the best value because that’s usually a pretty bad pitcher at $6,000 or something who can easily blow up in our faces.

Scherzer and Kelly show up on both lists. That combo costs $19,900 which leaves us just $3,862 per hitter. Maybe we shouldn’t be pumped to play a lower K guy in Coors at $8,100 - but the projections work all of that in, and the Rockies lineup is just awful after moving Cron & Grichuk at the deadline.

The other two guys to consider as an SP2 option behind Scherzer would be Mikolas ($7,000 vs. OAK) and Grayson ($6,400 vs. SD). Mikolas feels pretty safe, and Grayson has plenty of upside for the cost. I’m thinking Scherzer + Mikolas in a cash game situation, with some Kelly and Grayson shares in higher-upside contests.

Catchers

1. Willson Contreras ($3600.0) vs. JP Sears: 8.95 points, 1.47 score

2. Gabriel Moreno ($2500.0) vs. Chris Flexen: 7.26 points, 1.25 score

3. Francisco Alvarez ($3900.0) vs. Quinn Priester: 7.95 points, 1.2 score

4. Mitch Garver ($3500.0) vs. Patrick Sandoval: 7.63 points, 1.18 score

5. Cal Raleigh ($4500.0) vs. Brady Singer: 7.89 points, 1.1 score

Four really strong options here. Moreno at $2,500 stands out as a super cheap catcher option, and the guy can certainly get balls in play (22% K% but projecting for just a 15% K% in this specific spot) - and that’s what you want in Coors Field. Let’s go with him in the one lineup I like to build as I go through this.

First Base

1. Luken Baker ($2000.0) vs. JP Sears: 8.05 points, 1.54 score

2. Paul Goldschmidt ($5800.0) vs. JP Sears: 9.72 points, 1.31 score

3. Ji-Man Choi ($2500.0) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 6.76 points, 1.22 score

4. Christian Walker ($5200.0) vs. Chris Flexen: 9.26 points, 1.21 score

5. Pete Alonso ($5400.0) vs. Quinn Priester: 8.76 points, 1.17 score

Luken Baker is back. He hit for a 1.159 OPS in 380 PAs in AAA. He only has 20 MLB PAs this year, but he’s struggled in that time (.563 OPS, 40% K%). For $2,000 though that’s pretty appealing, although it does take away Christian Walker and the studs in Goldy/Alonso. But by the projections and price, he’s the clear top play so let’s move forward with him for now.

Second Base

1. Dylan Moore ($2200.0) vs. Brady Singer: 6.9 points, 1.28 score

2. Ha-Seong Kim ($4900.0) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 9.19 points, 1.22 score

3. Nolan Gorman ($4300.0) vs. JP Sears: 8.11 points, 1.2 score

4. Ketel Marte ($5700.0) vs. Chris Flexen: 9.38 points, 1.15 score

5. Brendan Rodgers ($3000.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 7.4 points, 1.13 score

We have already saved a lot of money, and now we get another top play at $2,200 in Dylan Moore. He is barreling the ball at a high rate this year and stealing bases when he gets on - so he’s going to project well in a lot of slates. That’s true here, but the floor is extremely low with him given his high strikeout rate.

I don’t really want to go there in this spot, but I’m not enthralled with a $5,700 Ketel Marte either. However, if we’re going to get this Diamondbacks stack in cash, it’s hard to leave Marte off of it since he’s the #2 hitter.

Third Base

1. Nolan Arenado ($5600.0) vs. JP Sears: 10.01 points, 1.37 score

2. Manny Machado ($5300.0) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 9.09 points, 1.28 score

3. Jace Peterson ($3700.0) vs. Chris Flexen: 7.87 points, 1.11 score

4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2900.0) vs. Max Fried: 7.33 points, 1.07 score

5. Eugenio Suarez ($3900.0) vs. Brady Singer: 7.49 points, 1.07 score

Always have to like Arenado against a lefty, and the game is at home and Sears gives up a TON of fly balls (second highest FB% to Andrew Abbott). This is a fantastic spot for Arenado to lift one out of the ballpark - so he’s the top option, and Jace Peterson is probably my backup plan as a guy that will likely be starting in Coors tonight.

Shortstop

1. Francisco Lindor ($5100.0) vs. Quinn Priester: 8.95 points, 1.25 score

2. Tommy Edman ($3900.0) vs. JP Sears: 7.81 points, 1.17 score

3. Xander Bogaerts ($4800.0) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 8.39 points, 1.16 score

4. Bobby Witt Jr. ($5900.0) vs. Logan Gilbert: 9.0 points, 1.09 score

5. Corey Seager ($6300.0) vs. Patrick Sandoval: 8.69 points, 1.09 score

The Mets are in a decent spot against Priester. But while I don’t think Priester is good, I don’t think he’s a guy that’s going to give up these massive blowup DFS games given the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (54%) and mostly struggles with the walk (11%) - and walks don’t really give us the DFS points we want.

I suppose Edman makes for a decent play at $3900, but I don’t love what we have at SS here. We could go very cheap with Liover Peguero $2,800 against Carrasco. He hits at the bottom of the lineup, and has just a .777 OPS and a .269 xwOBA this year - but he does have four homers and an 8.1% Brl% so it’s not a completely hopeless punt.

Outfield

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6100.0) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 10.94 points, 1.48 score

2. Juan Soto ($5600.0) vs. Grayson Rodriguez: 10.71 points, 1.44 score

3. Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6700.0) vs. Clarke Schmidt: 11.54 points, 1.42 score

4. Corbin Carroll ($6000.0) vs. Chris Flexen: 10.98 points, 1.39 score

5. Tyler O'Neill ($3700.0) vs. JP Sears: 8.71 points, 1.36 score

6. Jake McCarthy ($3200.0) vs. Chris Flexen: 8.61 points, 1.31 score

7. Lars Nootbaar ($4500.0) vs. JP Sears: 9.07 points, 1.28 score

8. Dylan Moore ($2200.0) vs. Brady Singer: 6.9 points, 1.28 score

9. Aaron Judge ($6400.0) vs. Max Fried: 10.25 points, 1.25 score

10. Tommy Pham ($3800.0) vs. Chris Flexen: 8.58 points, 1.25 score

11. Bryan Reynolds ($4300.0) vs. Carlos Carrasco: 8.69 points, 1.24 score

12. Julio Rodriguez ($5500.0) vs. Brady Singer: 9.38 points, 1.22 score

13. Jack Suwinski ($3300.0) vs. Carlos Carrasco: 7.59 points, 1.22 score

14. Teoscar Hernandez ($3600.0) vs. Brady Singer: 7.86 points, 1.22 score

15. Rafael Ortega ($2100.0) vs. Quinn Priester: 6.55 points, 1.2 score

Gotta have Carroll in this spot, and then Jake McCarthy and Tommy Pham really stand out for their prices as well. So we could make this lineup using that trio:

SP1 Scherzer $11,000
SP2 Mikolas $7,000
C Moreno $2,500
1B Baker $2,000
2B Marte $5,700
3B Arenado $5,600
SS Peguero $2,800
OF Carroll $6,000
OF Pham $3,800
OF McCarthy $3,200

So we didn’t end up with many of those Pittsburgh fill-ins I thought we would.

In terms of Pirates standout plays, it’s pretty much just Bryan Reynolds ($4,300) and Alfonso Rivas ($2,300), but I prefer the Diamondbacks outfield and Baker for $300 less. If Baker is really hitting 9th and Rivas is near the top of the lineup - I could see pivoting to Rivas since we have the $400 left. Rivas has been pretty studly in the minors in his own right, so it’s a very comparable play.

Okay on to the rest:

Game by Game Previews

HOU @ MIA

Projected Game Score:

HOU 4.06 - MIA 3.52

HOU 53.5% To Win

Vegas O/U: 7.5

Projected Total: 7.58

2023 Pitcher Stats

Framber Valdez: 20 GS, 2111 Pitches, 25.2 K%, 6.1 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 45.6 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%, 55.4 GB%, 8 Brl%

Braxton Garrett: 20 GS, 1810 Pitches, 25.7 K%, 3.9 BB%, 13.1 SwStr%, 48.8 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%, 49.3 GB%, 9 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Framber Valdez (HOU): 95 Pitches 5.8 IP, 6.1 H, 2.6 ER, 5.5 K, 1.4 BB, 14.95 FPts

Braxton Garrett (MIA): 92 Pitches 5.53 IP, 6.0 H, 2.7 ER, 5.5 K, 1.3 BB, 14.06 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Framber Valdez - 5.5 strikeouts

Braxton Garrett - 4.5 strikeouts

HOU Hitter Projections

1. Jose Altuve: 4.29 PA, 1.09 H, 1.89 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.46 FPts

2. Alex Bregman: 4.24 PA, 0.97 H, 1.54 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.96 FPts

3. Yordan Alvarez: 4.16 PA, 1.03 H, 1.96 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.39 FPts

4. Kyle Tucker: 4.02 PA, 1.02 H, 1.77 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.61 FPts

5. Yainer Diaz: 3.97 PA, 1.08 H, 2.02 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.65 FPts

6. Chas McCormick: 3.85 PA, 0.87 H, 1.49 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.9 FPts

7. Jon Singleton: 3.76 PA, 0.72 H, 1.28 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.71 FPts

8. Jeremy Pena: 3.62 PA, 0.91 H, 1.42 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.17 FPts

9. Martin Maldonado: 3.25 PA, 0.57 H, 1.02 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.24 FPts

MIA Hitter Projections

1. Jorge Soler: 4.3 PA, 0.9 H, 1.84 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.68 FPts

2. Luis Arraez: 4.19 PA, 1.2 H, 1.57 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.74 FPts

3. Josh Bell: 4.09 PA, 0.96 H, 1.59 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.01 FPts

4. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.02 PA, 0.97 H, 1.55 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.63 FPts

5. Jake Burger: 3.85 PA, 0.93 H, 1.83 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.19 FPts

6. Avisail Garcia: 3.72 PA, 0.89 H, 1.5 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.34 FPts

7. Yuli Gurriel: 3.72 PA, 0.92 H, 1.27 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.47 FPts

8. Jon Berti: 3.48 PA, 0.86 H, 1.23 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.23 SB, 6.52 FPts

9. Nick Fortes: 3.31 PA, 0.75 H, 1.11 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 4.96 FPts

Best Bets

Framber Valdez HOU - Walks Under 1.5 (+135.0) - 0.159 value

Jon Singleton HOU - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-155.0) - 0.12 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Jose Altuve (HOU) 2B $13200: 8.46 Proj, 0.89 Score

Kyle Tucker (HOU) OF $13800: 8.61 Proj, 0.89 Score

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) OF $14100: 8.39 Proj, 0.87 Score

Yainer Diaz (HOU) C $8700: 7.65 Proj, 0.83 Score

Jake Burger (MIA) 3B $11100: 7.19 Proj, 0.77 Score

PIT @ NYM

Projected Game Score:

NYM 4.56 - PIT 4.16

NYM 52.2% To Win

Vegas O/U: 10.5

Projected Total: 8.72