DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 15th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Slate Preview 8/15/2023
It’s a great DFS day, but I’m hiding the DFS preview from free subs. So if you clicked this to get the free DFS preview like I’ve been giving, you don’t get it today! That’ll cost you $7/month - sign up today, or don’t!
Here we go:
Game by Game Previews
CLE @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
CLE 5.6 - CIN 5.18
CLE 51.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.78
2023 Pitcher Stats
Logan Allen: 17 GS, 1546 Pitches, 22.4 K%, 8.9 BB%, 11.3 SwStr%, 47.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%, 41.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Graham Ashcraft: 22 GS, 1965 Pitches, 17.0 K%, 8.7 BB%, 10.6 SwStr%, 45.0 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%, 48.8 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Logan Allen (CLE): 92 Pitches 5.14 IP, 5.3 H, 2.7 ER, 5.4 K, 1.8 BB, 13.31 FPts
Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 97 Pitches 6.01 IP, 6.4 H, 3.1 ER, 4.0 K, 2.0 BB, 10.59 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Logan Allen - 4.5 strikeouts
Graham Ashcraft - 4.5 strikeouts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.71 PA, 1.24 H, 1.71 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.3 FPts
2. Andres Gimenez: 4.57 PA, 1.19 H, 1.96 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.2 SB, 10.08 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.48 PA, 1.15 H, 2.02 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.22 SB, 11.17 FPts
4. Kole Calhoun: 4.39 PA, 0.95 H, 1.66 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.82 FPts
5. Ramon Laureano: 4.14 PA, 0.91 H, 1.63 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.38 FPts
6. Will Brennan: 4.07 PA, 1.16 H, 1.71 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.69 FPts
7. Brayan Rocchio: 4.05 PA, 0.92 H, 1.4 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.24 FPts
8. Bo Naylor: 3.82 PA, 0.83 H, 1.51 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.59 FPts
9. Myles Straw: 3.67 PA, 0.85 H, 1.12 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.18 SB, 6.61 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Elly De La Cruz: 4.64 PA, 1.08 H, 1.83 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.22 SB, 9.06 FPts
2. Kevin Newman: 4.43 PA, 1.2 H, 1.8 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.6 FPts
3. Matt McLain: 4.42 PA, 1.09 H, 1.95 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.13 SB, 9.66 FPts
4. Spencer Steer: 4.33 PA, 0.97 H, 1.63 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.17 FPts
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 4.11 PA, 0.98 H, 1.85 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.29 FPts
6. Tyler Stephenson: 4.01 PA, 0.96 H, 1.57 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.35 FPts
7. Stuart Fairchild: 3.68 PA, 0.8 H, 1.42 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.1 FPts
8. TJ Hopkins: 3.86 PA, 0.83 H, 1.46 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.15 FPts
9. Luke Maile: 3.35 PA, 0.74 H, 1.28 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.86 FPts
Best Bets
Jose Ramirez CLE - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-125.0) - 0.174 value
Andres Gimenez CLE - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.155 value
Jose Ramirez CLE - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.13 value
Graham Ashcraft CIN - Walks Over 1.5 (+105.0) - 0.111 value
Steven Kwan CLE - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.109 value
Andres Gimenez CLE - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.105 value
Matt McLain CIN - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-135.0) - 0.1 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
HOU @ MIA
Projected Game Score:
HOU 4.18 - MIA 4.01
HOU 51.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.19
2023 Pitcher Stats
Cristian Javier: 22 GS, 2061 Pitches, 22.4 K%, 8.3 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 45.4 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%, 26.6 GB%, 10 Brl%
Johnny Cueto: 5 GS, 421 Pitches, 21.9 K%, 6.7 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 49.2 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%, 31.1 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Cristian Javier (HOU): 99 Pitches 6.21 IP, 5.8 H, 2.8 ER, 6.7 K, 1.8 BB, 17.82 FPts
Johnny Cueto (MIA): 86 Pitches 5.25 IP, 5.9 H, 2.7 ER, 3.9 K, 1.4 BB, 10.49 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Cristian Javier - 5.5 strikeouts
Johnny Cueto - 3.5 strikeouts
HOU Hitter Projections
1. Jose Altuve: 4.24 PA, 1.07 H, 1.8 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.18 FPts
2. Kyle Tucker: 4.16 PA, 1.06 H, 1.85 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.93 FPts
3. Alex Bregman: 4.09 PA, 0.93 H, 1.49 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.86 FPts
4. Yordan Alvarez: 4.02 PA, 1.1 H, 2.18 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.44 FPts
5. Yainer Diaz: 3.93 PA, 1.05 H, 1.96 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.49 FPts
6. Chas McCormick: 3.81 PA, 0.88 H, 1.5 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.91 FPts
7. Jon Singleton: 3.72 PA, 0.8 H, 1.48 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.58 FPts
8. Jeremy Pena: 3.58 PA, 0.86 H, 1.34 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.95 FPts
9. Martin Maldonado: 3.21 PA, 0.55 H, 0.94 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.02 FPts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Jorge Soler: 4.57 PA, 0.89 H, 1.78 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.69 FPts
2. Luis Arraez: 4.45 PA, 1.28 H, 1.84 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.88 FPts
3. Josh Bell: 4.34 PA, 0.94 H, 1.68 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.58 FPts
4. Jazz Chisholm: 4.05 PA, 0.88 H, 1.69 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.22 SB, 8.54 FPts
5. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.16 PA, 0.95 H, 1.64 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.92 FPts
6. Jesus Sanchez: 3.86 PA, 0.83 H, 1.49 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.4 FPts
7. Jake Burger: 3.88 PA, 0.87 H, 1.77 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.99 FPts
8. Joey Wendle: 3.67 PA, 0.83 H, 1.22 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.48 FPts
9. Nick Fortes: 3.51 PA, 0.73 H, 1.14 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.16 FPts
Best Bets
Cristian Javier HOU - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (+115.0) - 0.193 value
Cristian Javier HOU - Outs Over 16.5 (+100.0) - 0.179 value
Cristian Javier HOU - Walks Under 2.5 (-140.0) - 0.145 value
Johnny Cueto MIA - Outs Under 17.5 (-125.0) - 0.126 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
BOS @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
BOS 4.64 - WSH 3.92
BOS 54.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 8.56
2023 Pitcher Stats
Nick Pivetta: 10 GS, 1690 Pitches, 29.6 K%, 9.1 BB%, 13.3 SwStr%, 49.8 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%, 35.0 GB%, 12 Brl%
Josiah Gray: 23 GS, 2202 Pitches, 19.9 K%, 10.5 BB%, 12.4 SwStr%, 44.6 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%, 40.3 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Nick Pivetta (BOS): 85 Pitches 5.18 IP, 5.2 H, 2.4 ER, 4.4 K, 1.4 BB, 12.54 FPts
Josiah Gray (WSH): 93 Pitches 5.68 IP, 5.5 H, 2.9 ER, 4.2 K, 2.5 BB, 10.97 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Nick Pivetta - 5.5 strikeouts
Josiah Gray - 4.5 strikeouts
BOS Hitter Projections
1. Alex Verdugo: 4.4 PA, 1.08 H, 1.66 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.8 FPts
2. Masataka Yoshida: 4.37 PA, 1.12 H, 1.77 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.2 FPts
3. Justin Turner: 4.22 PA, 0.99 H, 1.7 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.84 FPts
4. Rafael Devers: 4.15 PA, 1.04 H, 2.07 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.31 FPts
5. Triston Casas: 3.97 PA, 0.76 H, 1.48 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.77 FPts
6. Trevor Story: 3.97 PA, 0.83 H, 1.55 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.86 FPts
7. Jarren Duran: 3.7 PA, 0.83 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.88 FPts
8. Reese McGuire: 3.5 PA, 0.8 H, 1.16 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.18 FPts
9. Luis Urias: 3.38 PA, 0.7 H, 1.24 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.01 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.57 PA, 1.11 H, 1.79 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.44 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.5 PA, 0.98 H, 1.71 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.66 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.4 PA, 1.05 H, 1.68 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.08 FPts
4. Keibert Ruiz: 4.31 PA, 1.09 H, 1.75 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.65 FPts
5. Dominic Smith: 4.2 PA, 0.94 H, 1.37 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.22 FPts
6. Ildemaro Vargas: 4.09 PA, 1.0 H, 1.52 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.43 FPts
7. Jake Alu: 3.98 PA, 0.88 H, 1.36 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.25 FPts
8. Blake Rutherford: 3.84 PA, 0.89 H, 1.48 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.27 FPts
9. Alex Call: 3.53 PA, 0.66 H, 1.05 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.44 FPts
Best Bets
Jarren Duran BOS - H+R+RBI Under 2.5 (-145.0) - 0.209 value
Nick Pivetta BOS - Outs Under 17.5 (-105.0) - 0.19 value
Jarren Duran BOS - Runs Scored Under 0.5 (+110.0) - 0.162 value
Jarren Duran BOS - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-110.0) - 0.159 value
Nick Pivetta BOS - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (-135.0) - 0.151 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Rafael Devers (BOS) 3B $5300: 9.31 Proj, 1.19 Score
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) OF $4900: 8.2 Proj, 1.1 Score
Triston Casas (BOS) 1B $4300: 7.77 Proj, 1.06 Score
C.J. Abrams (WSH) SS $4700: 8.44 Proj, 1.04 Score
Keibert Ruiz (WSH) C $4300: 7.65 Proj, 1.04 Score
PHI @ TOR
Projected Game Score:
PHI 4.8 - TOR 3.56
PHI 57.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.36
2023 Pitcher Stats
Zack Wheeler: 23 GS, 2301 Pitches, 27.1 K%, 4.4 BB%, 13.7 SwStr%, 48.8 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%, 39.5 GB%, 6 Brl%
Yusei Kikuchi: 23 GS, 2048 Pitches, 24.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 13.8 SwStr%, 47.3 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 40.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Zack Wheeler (PHI): 93 Pitches 5.73 IP, 5.4 H, 2.5 ER, 6.1 K, 1.3 BB, 16.77 FPts
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 94 Pitches 5.89 IP, 5.9 H, 3.0 ER, 6.0 K, 2.0 BB, 15.3 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Zack Wheeler - 6.5 strikeouts
Yusei Kikuchi - 6.5 strikeouts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.63 PA, 0.79 H, 1.65 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.49 FPts
2. Alec Bohm: 4.51 PA, 1.12 H, 1.79 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.86 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.36 PA, 0.93 H, 1.57 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.58 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 4.3 PA, 1.05 H, 1.78 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.81 FPts
5. Trea Turner: 4.18 PA, 1.02 H, 1.69 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.45 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 4.06 PA, 0.95 H, 1.74 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.4 FPts
7. Rodolfo Castro: 3.84 PA, 0.81 H, 1.41 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.5 FPts
8. Edmundo Sosa: 3.64 PA, 0.85 H, 1.44 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.38 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.61 PA, 0.86 H, 1.44 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.0 FPts
TOR Hitter Projections
1. Whit Merrifield: 4.42 PA, 1.01 H, 1.43 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.13 FPts
2. Brandon Belt: 4.22 PA, 0.81 H, 1.46 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.73 FPts
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.32 PA, 1.07 H, 1.84 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.92 FPts
4. George Springer: 4.21 PA, 0.97 H, 1.58 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.25 FPts
5. Cavan Biggio: 3.83 PA, 0.74 H, 1.28 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.95 FPts
6. Matt Chapman: 3.99 PA, 0.81 H, 1.49 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.52 FPts
7. Danny Jansen: 3.79 PA, 0.78 H, 1.51 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.15 FPts
8. Daulton Varsho: 3.7 PA, 0.75 H, 1.31 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.99 FPts
9. Paul DeJong: 3.48 PA, 0.63 H, 1.05 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.62 FPts
Best Bets
Zack Wheeler PHI - Outs Under 17.5 (+140.0) - 0.129 value
Paul DeJong TOR - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-125.0) - 0.111 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) C $4800: 8.4 Proj, 1.16 Score
Edmundo Sosa (PHI) 3B $2000: 6.38 Proj, 1.12 Score
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $5200: 8.49 Proj, 1.1 Score
Johan Rojas (PHI) OF $2300: 7.0 Proj, 1.09 Score
Bryce Harper (PHI) 1B $5500: 8.58 Proj, 1.08 Score
And now we reach the paywall. Subscribe today to get the rest of this post, the full daily notes, full projections and full bet values every day for dozens and dozens of player props, access to the Tableau dashboards, custom daily-updated Google Sheets, and so much more! Read the about page here for more information.