DFS & Betting Game Previews - July 18th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
“I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world.”
The world gave me trouble this week. BaseballPress, a premier source of MLB lineups for at least the last decade, went down yesterday, which broke part of the automated projections. And yes, that is obviously the kind of trouble that Jesus was talking about in that Bible passage. I am persecuted but not abandoned, struck down but not destroyed.
I had a backup plan and plugged it to make it work yesterday afternoon thinking that BaseballPress would be back up by the night. But it’s not. It’s still down. Their Twitter account is gone. It seems that this might be a sudden end to Baseball Press Dot com Slash Lineups. Very sad, I have lots of fond memories with that webpage. I live a weird life, I know. While most people were cranking it to porn in college I was just trying to see and scrape baseball lineups.
And we’ve come out stronger, because I coded up a new function to get lineups from RotoWire as well now, so I’ve already replaced the BaseballPress source and made some improvements in the process.
If you’re interested in getting your hands on the full code, reach out.
So the good news is that we can move forward with the game previews. It’s a beautiful Tuesday night so we have a lot to cover! I’ll give some free stuff at the beginning and then 3 games for free, but you’ll have to pay for the rest! Below the pay wall we’ll have a full DFS preview and the list of algo recommended bets that have turned a profit thus far! Check the trackers below for more on that.
Slate Preview 7/18/2023
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
ATL (vs. Zach Davies): 80.34 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Julio Teheran): 79.49 Projected Points
SF (vs. Luke Weaver): 76.57 Projected Points
BAL (vs. Michael Grove): 71.84 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Noah Davis): 71.18 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
OAK (vs. Chris Murphy): 53.92 Projected Points
COL (vs. Hunter Brown): 58.16 Projected Points
MIN (vs. Bryan Woo): 58.22 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Aaron Nola): 60.67 Projected Points
DET (vs. Daniel Lynch): 62.24 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Bryan Woo: 16.76 Today, 14.83 Previous Max
Kyle Schwarber: 11.2 Today, 10.51 Previous Max
Kyle Tucker: 10.49 Today, 10.42 Previous Max
Joc Pederson: 10.31 Today, 9.96 Previous Max
Mike Yastrzemski: 9.01 Today, 8.84 Previous Max
C.J. Abrams: 8.39 Today, 8.1 Previous Max
Mauricio Dubon: 7.82 Today, 7.5 Previous Max
Blake Sabol: 7.42 Today, 7.15 Previous Max
Game by Game Previews
MIL @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
PHI 6.28 - MIL 4.01
PHI 61.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.29
2023 Pitcher Stats
Aaron Nola: 19 GS, 1852 Pitches, 24.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 49.3 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%, 41.1 GB%, 9 Brl%
Julio Teheran: 8 GS, 699 Pitches, 17.3 K%, 4.9 BB%, 9.4 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%, 43.3 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Aaron Nola (PHI): 96 Pitches 5.99 IP, 5.5 H, 2.6 ER, 6.2 K, 1.7 BB, 17.22 FPts
Julio Teheran (MIL): 88 Pitches 5.22 IP, 6.0 H, 3.0 ER, 4.4 K, 1.5 BB, 10.42 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Aaron Nola - 6.5 strikeouts
Julio Teheran - 3.5 strikeouts
MIL Hitter Projections
1. Christian Yelich: 4.46 PA, 1.06 H, 1.7 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.7 FPts
2. William Contreras: 4.38 PA, 1.02 H, 1.85 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.95 FPts
3. Willy Adames: 4.24 PA, 0.92 H, 1.74 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.64 FPts
4. Jesse Winker: 4.0 PA, 0.85 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.65 FPts
5. Owen Miller: 4.01 PA, 0.87 H, 1.32 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.85 FPts
6. Raimel Tapia: 3.8 PA, 0.93 H, 1.37 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.55 FPts
7. Andruw Monasterio: 3.51 PA, 0.73 H, 1.2 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.76 FPts
8. Brice Turang: 3.68 PA, 0.74 H, 1.15 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.8 FPts
9. Joey Wiemer: 3.38 PA, 0.65 H, 1.2 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.77 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.68 PA, 1.02 H, 2.33 TB, 0.36 HR, 0.04 SB, 11.2 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.51 PA, 1.14 H, 1.86 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.22 SB, 9.65 FPts
3. Nick Castellanos: 4.41 PA, 1.14 H, 1.96 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.94 FPts
4. Bryce Harper: 4.29 PA, 1.11 H, 2.01 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.11 SB, 10.45 FPts
5. J.T. Realmuto: 4.19 PA, 1.08 H, 1.96 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.14 SB, 9.6 FPts
6. Bryson Stott: 4.06 PA, 1.06 H, 1.63 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.88 FPts
7. Alec Bohm: 3.98 PA, 1.0 H, 1.52 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.92 FPts
8. Darick Hall: 3.8 PA, 0.94 H, 1.87 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.04 FPts
9. Brandon Marsh: 3.49 PA, 0.83 H, 1.35 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.81 FPts
Best Bets
Julio Teheran MIL - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (+100.0) - 0.139 value
Aaron Nola PHI - Strikeouts Under 6.5 (+120.0) - 0.126 value
Kyle Schwarber PHI - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (-155.0) - 0.056 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
LAD @ BAL
Projected Game Score:
BAL 5.48 - LAD 4.78
BAL 53.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.26
2023 Pitcher Stats
Tyler Wells: 17 GS, 1639 Pitches, 25.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 47.5 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%, 33.1 GB%, 12 Brl%
Michael Grove: 8 GS, 790 Pitches, 20.6 K%, 7.2 BB%, 11.6 SwStr%, 46.3 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%, 40.3 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Tyler Wells (BAL): 90 Pitches 5.48 IP, 5.2 H, 2.6 ER, 5.0 K, 1.8 BB, 13.64 FPts
Michael Grove (LAD): 80 Pitches 4.88 IP, 5.1 H, 2.6 ER, 4.0 K, 2.0 BB, 10.17 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Tyler Wells - 4.5 strikeouts
Michael Grove - 3.5 strikeouts
LAD Hitter Projections
1. Mookie Betts: 4.36 PA, 1.06 H, 1.99 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.19 FPts
2. Freddie Freeman: 4.28 PA, 1.18 H, 2.01 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.59 FPts
3. Will Smith: 4.23 PA, 0.95 H, 1.6 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.7 FPts
4. Max Muncy: 4.08 PA, 0.76 H, 1.57 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.0 FPts
5. J.D. Martinez: 4.0 PA, 0.91 H, 1.7 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.19 FPts
6. David Peralta: 3.73 PA, 0.91 H, 1.48 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.52 FPts
7. Jason Heyward: 3.53 PA, 0.77 H, 1.34 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.17 FPts
8. James Outman: 3.6 PA, 0.73 H, 1.27 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.23 FPts
9. Miguel Rojas: 3.34 PA, 0.77 H, 1.08 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.19 FPts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Gunnar Henderson: 4.7 PA, 1.05 H, 1.84 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.18 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.66 PA, 1.11 H, 1.86 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.14 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.57 PA, 1.09 H, 2.08 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.35 FPts
4. Ryan O'Hearn: 4.19 PA, 1.05 H, 1.73 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.62 FPts
5. Austin Hays: 4.28 PA, 1.03 H, 1.71 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.65 FPts
6. Aaron Hicks: 4.16 PA, 0.83 H, 1.31 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.04 FPts
7. Colton Cowser: 4.1 PA, 0.96 H, 1.49 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.9 FPts
8. Jordan Westburg: 3.97 PA, 0.93 H, 1.61 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.39 FPts
9. Adam Frazier: 3.6 PA, 0.93 H, 1.34 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.57 FPts
Best Bets
Miguel Rojas LAD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-185.0) - 0.134 value
Will Smith LAD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-140.0) - 0.05 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Anthony Santander (BAL) OF $4500: 9.35 Proj, 1.17 Score
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1B $5800: 9.59 Proj, 1.13 Score
Adley Rutschman (BAL) C $5200: 9.14 Proj, 1.12 Score
Mookie Betts (LAD) 2B/OF $6200: 9.19 Proj, 1.1 Score
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 3B/SS $4700: 9.18 Proj, 1.1 Score
CLE @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
PIT 5.12 - CLE 4.72
PIT 52.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.84
2023 Pitcher Stats
Mitch Keller: 19 GS, 1873 Pitches, 26.7 K%, 7.0 BB%, 10.0 SwStr%, 49.8 Strike%, 33.4 Ball%, 47.8 GB%, 9 Brl%
Logan Allen: 12 GS, 1112 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 8.7 BB%, 12.1 SwStr%, 48.3 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%, 44.6 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Mitch Keller (PIT): 99 Pitches 6.0 IP, 6.5 H, 3.0 ER, 4.4 K, 2.1 BB, 11.73 FPts
Logan Allen (CLE): 75 Pitches 4.28 IP, 4.1 H, 2.1 ER, 4.1 K, 1.9 BB, 10.62 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Mitch Keller - 4.5 strikeouts
Logan Allen - 4.5 strikeouts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.47 PA, 1.13 H, 1.51 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.09 FPts
2. Amed Rosario: 4.37 PA, 1.1 H, 1.61 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.52 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.28 PA, 1.05 H, 1.8 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.18 SB, 9.43 FPts
4. Josh Naylor: 4.2 PA, 1.15 H, 1.97 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.75 FPts
5. Andres Gimenez: 4.04 PA, 0.99 H, 1.57 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.96 FPts
6. Josh Bell: 3.96 PA, 0.88 H, 1.47 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.02 FPts
7. Will Brennan: 3.79 PA, 1.05 H, 1.49 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.61 FPts
8. Myles Straw: 3.72 PA, 0.82 H, 1.08 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.12 FPts
9. Bo Naylor: 3.49 PA, 0.68 H, 1.2 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.27 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Connor Joe: 4.77 PA, 1.01 H, 1.63 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.44 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.59 PA, 1.08 H, 1.82 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.82 FPts
3. Andrew McCutchen: 4.54 PA, 0.92 H, 1.53 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.35 FPts
4. Carlos Santana: 4.45 PA, 0.93 H, 1.53 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.87 FPts
5. Henry Davis: 4.33 PA, 0.91 H, 1.6 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.27 FPts
6. Jared Triolo: 4.22 PA, 0.81 H, 1.2 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.57 FPts
7. Endy Rodriguez: 4.1 PA, 0.87 H, 1.42 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.99 FPts
8. Nick Gonzales: 3.96 PA, 0.77 H, 1.36 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.48 FPts
9. Liover Peguero: 3.71 PA, 0.84 H, 1.4 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.94 FPts
Best Bets
Myles Straw CLE - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-215.0) - 0.091 value
Mitch Keller PIT - Walks Over 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.07 value
Jared Triolo PIT - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-205.0) - 0.063 value
Liover Peguero PIT - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+170.0) - 0.053 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Connor Joe (PIT) 1B/OF $2600: 8.44 Proj, 1.34 Score
Josh Naylor (CLE) 1B $3900: 8.75 Proj, 1.19 Score
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 3B $5700: 9.43 Proj, 1.18 Score
Henry Davis (PIT) OF $2500: 8.27 Proj, 1.16 Score
Carlos Santana (PIT) 1B $3100: 7.87 Proj, 1.09 Score
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