DFS & Betting Game Previews - July 31st
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
DFS player pool and best bets are at the bottom. Let’s start with the game-by-game previews!
Game by Game Previews 7/31/2023
PHI @ MIA
Projected Game Score:
MIA 3.7 - PHI 3.6
MIA 50.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.3
2023 Pitcher Stats
Edward Cabrera: 16 GS, 1340 Pitches, 28.0 K%, 14.3 BB%, 13.6 SwStr%, 45.6 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%, 54.9 GB%, 8 Brl%
Taijuan Walker: 21 GS, 1841 Pitches, 20.9 K%, 9.8 BB%, 9.5 SwStr%, 44.0 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%, 46.9 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Edward Cabrera (MIA): 78 Pitches 4.93 IP, 4.0 H, 2.2 ER, 5.9 K, 2.3 BB, 15.41 FPts
Taijuan Walker (PHI): 101 Pitches 6.04 IP, 6.3 H, 2.8 ER, 5.4 K, 1.7 BB, 14.73 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Edward Cabrera - 5.5 strikeouts
Taijuan Walker - 4.5 strikeouts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.45 PA, 0.65 H, 1.4 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.64 FPts
2. Nick Castellanos: 4.33 PA, 0.92 H, 1.48 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.53 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.21 PA, 0.87 H, 1.5 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.17 FPts
4. Alec Bohm: 4.15 PA, 0.92 H, 1.33 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.13 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 4.05 PA, 0.94 H, 1.38 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.79 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 3.9 PA, 0.83 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.01 FPts
7. Trea Turner: 3.8 PA, 0.84 H, 1.31 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.18 SB, 6.61 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.63 PA, 0.67 H, 1.06 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.65 FPts
9. Jake Cave: 3.22 PA, 0.58 H, 0.99 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.66 FPts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Luis Arraez: 4.31 PA, 1.28 H, 1.8 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.77 FPts
2. Jorge Soler: 4.23 PA, 0.86 H, 1.68 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.24 FPts
3. Jazz Chisholm: 3.92 PA, 0.94 H, 1.78 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.25 SB, 8.84 FPts
4. Garrett Cooper: 4.04 PA, 0.93 H, 1.54 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.59 FPts
5. Jesus Sanchez: 3.76 PA, 0.87 H, 1.53 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.65 FPts
6. Bryan De La Cruz: 3.84 PA, 0.97 H, 1.62 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.69 FPts
7. Joey Wendle: 3.63 PA, 0.9 H, 1.3 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.74 FPts
8. Jean Segura: 3.6 PA, 0.88 H, 1.23 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.8 FPts
9. Nick Fortes: 3.38 PA, 0.75 H, 1.15 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.17 FPts
Best Bets
Taijuan Walker PHI - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+100.0) - 0.13 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
MIL @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
MIL 4.74 - WSH 3.34
MIL 58.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.08
2023 Pitcher Stats
Corbin Burnes: 21 GS, 1988 Pitches, 25.4 K%, 8.3 BB%, 13.2 SwStr%, 47.0 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%, 43.4 GB%, 6 Brl%
Jake Irvin: 15 GS, 1322 Pitches, 18.3 K%, 9.8 BB%, 7.1 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%, 40.2 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Corbin Burnes (MIL): 93 Pitches 5.68 IP, 5.5 H, 2.4 ER, 4.8 K, 1.3 BB, 14.82 FPts
Jake Irvin (WSH): 100 Pitches 5.96 IP, 5.6 H, 3.0 ER, 4.0 K, 2.7 BB, 10.76 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Corbin Burnes - 6.5 strikeouts
Jake Irvin - 4.5 strikeouts
MIL Hitter Projections
1. Christian Yelich: 4.45 PA, 1.09 H, 1.73 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.18 SB, 9.57 FPts
2. William Contreras: 4.4 PA, 1.1 H, 2.02 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.92 FPts
3. Carlos Santana: 4.28 PA, 0.88 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.89 FPts
4. Sal Frelick: 4.2 PA, 0.93 H, 1.32 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.13 FPts
5. Willy Adames: 4.03 PA, 0.92 H, 1.79 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.14 FPts
6. Andruw Monasterio: 3.67 PA, 0.79 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.78 FPts
7. Abraham Toro: 3.88 PA, 0.9 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.9 FPts
8. Brice Turang: 3.67 PA, 0.76 H, 1.15 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.18 FPts
9. Joey Wiemer: 3.35 PA, 0.7 H, 1.28 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.38 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.53 PA, 1.07 H, 1.64 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.2 SB, 7.7 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.44 PA, 0.95 H, 1.57 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.99 FPts
3. Jeimer Candelario: 4.31 PA, 0.92 H, 1.51 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.61 FPts
4. Joey Meneses: 4.23 PA, 1.01 H, 1.53 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.34 FPts
5. Keibert Ruiz: 4.15 PA, 1.03 H, 1.61 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.85 FPts
6. Luis Garcia: 4.02 PA, 1.01 H, 1.49 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.28 FPts
7. Dominic Smith: 3.93 PA, 0.87 H, 1.22 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.3 FPts
8. Corey Dickerson: 3.36 PA, 0.8 H, 1.15 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.93 FPts
9. Alex Call: 3.48 PA, 0.66 H, 0.99 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.02 FPts
Best Bets
Corbin Burnes MIL - Strikeouts Under 6.5 (-180.0) - 0.142 value
Jake Irvin WSH - Walks Over 2.5 (+145.0) - 0.106 value
Brice Turang MIL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-190.0) - 0.103 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
William Contreras (MIL) C $4500: 8.92 Proj, 1.31 Score
Christian Yelich (MIL) OF $5300: 9.57 Proj, 1.25 Score
Carlos Santana (MIL) 1B $3600: 7.89 Proj, 1.14 Score
Willy Adames (MIL) SS $4800: 8.14 Proj, 1.12 Score
Abraham Toro (MIL) 1B/3B $2900: 6.9 Proj, 1.06 Score
TB @ NYY
Projected Game Score:
NYY 4.32 - TB 4.2
NYY 50.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.52
2023 Pitcher Stats
Tyler Glasnow: 10 GS, 998 Pitches, 34.8 K%, 7.9 BB%, 18.6 SwStr%, 51.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%, 52.1 GB%, 15 Brl%
Domingo German: 19 GS, 1581 Pitches, 25.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 15.5 SwStr%, 49.2 Strike%, 33.2 Ball%, 38.1 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Tyler Glasnow (TB): 97 Pitches 6.29 IP, 4.6 H, 2.6 ER, 8.9 K, 2.4 BB, 23.48 FPts
Domingo German (NYY): 93 Pitches 5.79 IP, 5.2 H, 2.7 ER, 5.8 K, 2.0 BB, 15.38 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Tyler Glasnow - 7.5 strikeouts
Domingo German - 6.5 strikeouts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.33 PA, 1.08 H, 1.67 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.03 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.3 PA, 1.07 H, 1.68 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.5 FPts
3. Brandon Lowe: 4.12 PA, 0.84 H, 1.62 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.74 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.14 PA, 0.92 H, 1.57 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.34 FPts
5. Isaac Paredes: 3.93 PA, 0.8 H, 1.38 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.51 FPts
6. Luke Raley: 3.74 PA, 0.78 H, 1.47 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.8 FPts
7. Jose Siri: 3.81 PA, 0.72 H, 1.29 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.19 FPts
8. Josh Lowe: 3.58 PA, 0.77 H, 1.33 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.73 FPts
9. Christian Bethancourt: 3.34 PA, 0.74 H, 1.22 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.04 FPts
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Gleyber Torres: 4.57 PA, 1.03 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.27 FPts
2. Aaron Judge: 4.47 PA, 1.09 H, 2.55 TB, 0.42 HR, 0.08 SB, 11.73 FPts
3. Giancarlo Stanton: 4.33 PA, 0.79 H, 1.7 TB, 0.26 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.57 FPts
4. Anthony Rizzo: 4.27 PA, 0.8 H, 1.51 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.4 FPts
5. D.J. LeMahieu: 4.15 PA, 0.84 H, 1.28 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.45 FPts
6. Billy McKinney: 3.89 PA, 0.62 H, 1.09 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.48 FPts
7. Harrison Bader: 3.84 PA, 0.83 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.35 FPts
8. Anthony Volpe: 3.81 PA, 0.64 H, 1.16 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.27 FPts
9. Ben Rortvedt: 3.57 PA, 0.56 H, 0.92 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.66 FPts
Best Bets
Aaron Judge NYY - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.211 value
Anthony Rizzo NYY - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.186 value
Anthony Volpe NYY - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-160.0) - 0.123 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Aaron Judge (NYY) OF $6200: 11.73 Proj, 1.45 Score
Brandon Lowe (TB) 2B $4300: 7.74 Proj, 1.09 Score
Wander Franco (TB) SS $5700: 8.5 Proj, 1.06 Score
Randy Arozarena (TB) OF $5300: 8.34 Proj, 1.06 Score
Yandy Diaz (TB) 1B $4800: 8.03 Proj, 1.03 Score
And now we reach the paywall. Subscribe today to get the rest of this post, the full daily notes, full projections and full bet values every day for dozens and dozens of player props, access to the Tableau dashboards, custom daily-updated Google Sheets, and so much more! Read the about page here for more information.