DFS & Betting Game Previews - June 30th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Slate Preview 6/30/2023
Full DFS Player Pool at Bottom of Page
Best Bets
There are so many bets with a +10% edge today… here’s the list:
James Paxton under 5.5 K -120
Jon Gray over 1.5 BB +165
Justin Steele over 1.5 BB +140
Osvaldo Bideo over 1.5 BB -175
James Paxton under 1.5 BB +125
Shane McClanahan over 1.5 BB +100
Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K -150
Alec Marsh under 3.5 K -120
Michael Lorenzen over 4.5 K +105
Luis Severino over 1.5 BB -125
Pablo Lopez over 1.5 BB -105
Luis Severino over 5.5 K +120
Pablo Lopez over 1.5 BB -105
Griffin Canning over 1.5 BB -110
Ronel Blanco over 4.5 K -135
Game by Game Previews
CLE @ CHC
Projected Game Score:
CLE 4.72 - CHC 4.42
CLE 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.14
2023 Pitcher Stats
Justin Steele: 14 GS, 1164 Pitches, 21.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, 12.2 SwStr%, 47.6 Strike%, 33.2 Ball%, 50.0 GB%, 6 Brl%
Cal Quantrill: 11 GS, 993 Pitches, 12.5 K%, 7.6 BB%, 8.0 SwStr%, 40.2 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%, 40.8 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Justin Steele (CHC): 92 Pitches 6.34 IP, 6.4 H, 2.9 ER, 4.9 K, 1.9 BB, 14.06 FPts
Cal Quantrill (CLE): 65 Pitches 4.15 IP, 4.5 H, 2.1 ER, 2.6 K, 1.4 BB, 7.24 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Justin Steele - 3.5 strikeouts
Cal Quantrill - 3.5 strikeouts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Tyler Freeman: 4.5 PA, 1.04 H, 1.42 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.04 FPts
2. Amed Rosario: 4.48 PA, 1.19 H, 1.73 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.19 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.38 PA, 1.11 H, 1.97 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.17 SB, 9.7 FPts
4. Josh Bell: 4.27 PA, 1.01 H, 1.67 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.06 FPts
5. Andres Gimenez: 4.13 PA, 1.01 H, 1.5 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.51 FPts
6. David Fry: 4.07 PA, 0.95 H, 1.67 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.13 FPts
7. Will Brennan: 3.88 PA, 1.09 H, 1.54 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.74 FPts
8. Myles Straw: 3.81 PA, 0.88 H, 1.13 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.19 SB, 6.61 FPts
9. Bo Naylor: 3.57 PA, 0.67 H, 1.14 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.03 FPts
CHC Hitter Projections
1. Mike Tauchman: 4.44 PA, 0.93 H, 1.41 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.56 FPts
2. Nico Hoerner: 4.27 PA, 1.12 H, 1.59 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.1 FPts
3. Christopher Morel: 4.14 PA, 0.96 H, 1.81 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.37 FPts
4. Ian Happ: 4.09 PA, 0.93 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.82 FPts
5. Dansby Swanson: 4.01 PA, 1.0 H, 1.69 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.0 FPts
6. Cody Bellinger: 3.92 PA, 0.82 H, 1.35 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.69 FPts
7. Yan Gomes: 3.74 PA, 0.86 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.72 FPts
8. Jared Young: 3.69 PA, 0.89 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.11 FPts
9. Nick Madrigal: 3.43 PA, 0.88 H, 1.12 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.44 FPts
Best Bets
Justin Steele CHC - Walks Over 1.5 (+140.0) - 0.144 value
Cal Quantrill CLE - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (-150.0) - 0.125 value
Justin Steele CHC - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-180.0) - 0.076 value
Nick Madrigal CHC - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-220.0) - 0.074 value
Yan Gomes CHC - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-185.0) - 0.051 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
SD @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
SD 6.44 - CIN 5.72
SD 53.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 11.0
Projected Total: 12.16
2023 Pitcher Stats
Seth Lugo: 10 GS, 866 Pitches, 21.6 K%, 5.5 BB%, 8.5 SwStr%, 47.3 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%, 45.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Graham Ashcraft: 14 GS, 1199 Pitches, 16.2 K%, 9.1 BB%, 10.3 SwStr%, 43.1 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%, 47.0 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Seth Lugo (SD): 87 Pitches 5.13 IP, 5.3 H, 2.7 ER, 5.2 K, 1.6 BB, 13.22 FPts
Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 90 Pitches 5.8 IP, 6.1 H, 3.3 ER, 4.1 K, 2.7 BB, 9.85 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Seth Lugo - 4.5 strikeouts
Graham Ashcraft - 4.5 strikeouts
SD Hitter Projections
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.76 PA, 1.2 H, 2.39 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.27 SB, 12.34 FPts
2. Juan Soto: 4.61 PA, 0.95 H, 1.75 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.07 SB, 10.95 FPts
3. Manny Machado: 4.44 PA, 1.13 H, 1.91 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 9.23 FPts
4. Xander Bogaerts: 4.39 PA, 1.12 H, 1.76 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.07 SB, 9.07 FPts
5. Jake Cronenworth: 4.32 PA, 0.92 H, 1.48 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.9 FPts
6. Gary Sanchez: 4.16 PA, 0.84 H, 1.63 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.78 FPts
7. Rougned Odor: 4.02 PA, 0.87 H, 1.54 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.44 FPts
8. Ha-Seong Kim: 3.89 PA, 0.88 H, 1.38 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.48 FPts
9. Trent Grisham: 3.64 PA, 0.74 H, 1.35 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.34 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. TJ Friedl: 4.6 PA, 1.13 H, 1.69 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.65 FPts
2. Matt McLain: 4.58 PA, 1.14 H, 2.17 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.12 SB, 10.32 FPts
3. Jonathan India: 4.39 PA, 1.0 H, 1.63 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.12 FPts
4. Elly De La Cruz: 4.38 PA, 0.91 H, 1.79 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.04 FPts
5. Jake Fraley: 4.21 PA, 0.91 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.89 FPts
6. Joey Votto: 4.15 PA, 0.91 H, 1.77 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.0 SB, 8.27 FPts
7. Spencer Steer: 4.05 PA, 0.9 H, 1.52 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.35 FPts
8. Tyler Stephenson: 3.82 PA, 0.94 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.03 FPts
9. Will Benson: 3.45 PA, 0.74 H, 1.25 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.51 FPts
Best Bets
Seth Lugo SD - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (-105.0) - 0.089 value
Matt McLain CIN - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (-105.0) - 0.081 value
Graham Ashcraft CIN - Walks Over 2.5 (+135.0) - 0.073 value
Ha-Seong Kim SD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-160.0) - 0.072 value
Seth Lugo SD - Walks Under 1.5 (+125.0) - 0.068 value
TJ Friedl CIN - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+105.0) - 0.054 value
Matt McLain CIN - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+110.0) - 0.054 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
WSH @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
PHI 5.4 - WSH 4.08
PHI 57.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 9.48
2023 Pitcher Stats
Josiah Gray: 16 GS, 1540 Pitches, 20.3 K%, 10.7 BB%, 12.3 SwStr%, 44.4 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%, 42.7 GB%, 8 Brl%
Cristopher Sanchez: 3 GS, 209 Pitches, 26.4 K%, 5.7 BB%, 10.0 SwStr%, 48.8 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%, 47.2 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Josiah Gray (WSH): 94 Pitches 5.51 IP, 5.1 H, 2.8 ER, 5.3 K, 2.5 BB, 13.2 FPts
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 77 Pitches 4.86 IP, 5.2 H, 2.2 ER, 4.2 K, 1.3 BB, 11.7 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Josiah Gray - 4.5 strikeouts
Cristopher Sanchez - 3.5 strikeouts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. Lane Thomas: 4.53 PA, 1.06 H, 1.82 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.31 FPts
2. Luis Garcia: 4.43 PA, 1.16 H, 1.74 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.42 FPts
3. Jeimer Candelario: 4.31 PA, 0.97 H, 1.62 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.25 FPts
4. Joey Meneses: 4.24 PA, 1.1 H, 1.74 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.51 FPts
5. Stone Garrett: 3.99 PA, 0.9 H, 1.47 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.85 FPts
6. Keibert Ruiz: 4.02 PA, 1.03 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.97 FPts
7. Dominic Smith: 3.91 PA, 0.86 H, 1.2 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.66 FPts
8. Derek Hill: 3.58 PA, 0.77 H, 1.08 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.55 FPts
9. C.J. Abrams: 3.49 PA, 0.84 H, 1.29 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.85 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.56 PA, 0.88 H, 2.04 TB, 0.32 HR, 0.04 SB, 10.42 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.38 PA, 1.04 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.21 SB, 9.08 FPts
3. Nick Castellanos: 4.3 PA, 1.05 H, 1.84 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.41 FPts
4. Bryce Harper: 4.19 PA, 0.99 H, 1.83 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 9.93 FPts
5. J.T. Realmuto: 4.08 PA, 0.96 H, 1.74 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.76 FPts
6. Bryson Stott: 3.95 PA, 0.94 H, 1.44 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.15 FPts
7. Alec Bohm: 3.88 PA, 0.87 H, 1.34 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.16 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.65 PA, 0.8 H, 1.34 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.82 FPts
9. Kody Clemens: 3.33 PA, 0.66 H, 1.17 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.47 FPts
Best Bets
Alec Bohm PHI - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-170.0) - 0.066 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
MIN @ BAL
Projected Game Score:
BAL 4.76 - MIN 4.58
BAL 50.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.34
2023 Pitcher Stats
Pablo Lopez: 16 GS, 1510 Pitches, 30.0 K%, 6.5 BB%, 15.7 SwStr%, 51.5 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%, 41.9 GB%, 8 Brl%
Dean Kremer: 16 GS, 1456 Pitches, 20.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 11.3 SwStr%, 44.7 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%, 35.7 GB%, 11 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Pablo Lopez (MIN): 96 Pitches 5.95 IP, 5.6 H, 2.8 ER, 6.0 K, 2.1 BB, 15.74 FPts
Dean Kremer (BAL): 89 Pitches 5.65 IP, 5.6 H, 2.9 ER, 5.5 K, 1.8 BB, 14.09 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Pablo Lopez - 6.5 strikeouts
Dean Kremer - 5.5 strikeouts
MIN Hitter Projections
1. Carlos Correa: 4.39 PA, 1.01 H, 1.78 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.78 FPts
2. Edouard Julien: 4.19 PA, 0.8 H, 1.32 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.01 FPts
3. Byron Buxton: 4.1 PA, 0.9 H, 1.87 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.65 FPts
4. Alex Kirilloff: 3.9 PA, 0.99 H, 1.58 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.04 FPts
5. Royce Lewis: 3.93 PA, 0.92 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.55 FPts
6. Max Kepler: 3.79 PA, 0.88 H, 1.58 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.27 FPts
7. Ryan Jeffers: 3.75 PA, 0.75 H, 1.37 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.1 FPts
8. Willi Castro: 3.65 PA, 0.89 H, 1.45 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.79 FPts
9. Joey Gallo: 3.29 PA, 0.59 H, 1.33 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.5 FPts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Cedric Mullins II: 4.61 PA, 1.06 H, 1.68 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.26 SB, 9.04 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.49 PA, 1.02 H, 1.69 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.37 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.41 PA, 1.01 H, 1.93 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.4 FPts
4. Ryan O'Hearn: 4.08 PA, 0.98 H, 1.67 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.18 FPts
5. Austin Hays: 4.14 PA, 0.97 H, 1.58 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.99 FPts
6. Gunnar Henderson: 4.02 PA, 0.84 H, 1.48 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.46 FPts
7. Aaron Hicks: 3.9 PA, 0.75 H, 1.19 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.39 FPts
8. Jordan Westburg: 3.83 PA, 0.85 H, 1.46 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.69 FPts
9. Adam Frazier: 3.49 PA, 0.89 H, 1.26 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.1 FPts
Best Bets
Pablo Lopez MIN - Walks Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.111 value
Jordan Westburg BAL - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+215.0) - 0.088 value
Edouard Julien MIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-190.0) - 0.057 value
Dean Kremer BAL - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (+110.0) - 0.055 value
Adley Rutschman BAL - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+125.0) - 0.054 value
Royce Lewis MIN - One SB Over 0.5 (+950.0) - 0.053 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Cedric Mullins II (BAL) OF $4900: 9.04 Proj, 1.14 Score
Max Kepler (MIN) OF $2800: 7.27 Proj, 1.11 Score
Byron Buxton (MIN) OF $5300: 8.65 Proj, 1.11 Score
Willi Castro (MIN) 3B/OF $2300: 6.79 Proj, 1.1 Score
Anthony Santander (BAL) OF $4500: 8.4 Proj, 1.06 Score
Become a paid subscriber for $7/month or $70/year to get full access to these game previews, as well as everything else I do here at MLB Data Warehouse! Read the updated about page here for more information.