DFS & Betting Game Previews - June 26th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Just seven games on the board today and we have two with weather problems (Reds at Orioles, Brewers at Mets). That means this will be a pretty short preview post, but here we go!
DFS Preview
SP
It’s going to be a Spencer Strider $12,600 chalk night for sure, but we probably should eat it. He is projected for 29.9 points in my model which is absurd. The next highest is Dylan Cease $7,700 at 19.2, and then Luis Castillo $9,400 is the next closest at 18.
You also have decent cheaper options like Justin Verlander $8,300 against the Brewers and Reid Detmers $7,300 against the White Sox.
I think the cash duo is clearly Strider + Cease. Maybe the ownership won’t be as high on Strider given his recent lack of blowing people away in the box score and the huge price tag on him, but again it’s a short slate so most people will probably be clicking on him. I think he’s just as good as a GPP play because there will be some lower ownership there and if he pulls out a 35+ point day you’re going to be way ahead.
Offenses
The top offense tonight is probably the Orioles against Williamson. This guy has not been impressive in the Majors and the Orioles are a more than capable offensive unit. You can also make the case for the Rangers against Boyd (you can always make this case), the Braves against Sonny Gray, and the Mariners against Trevor Williams.
Catchers
Rutschman $5,400
Garver $4,000
Haase $3,000
First Base
Ohtani $6,400
Vogelbach $2,200
Urias $2,900
Alonso $5,300
Second Base
Ibanez $2,500
Anderson $3,800
Short $2,400
Third Base
Urias $2,900
Burger $3,900
Jung $4,700
Shortstop
Westburg $2,000
Lindor $4,700
Anderson $3,800
Outfield
Acuna Jr. $6,500
Hernandez $3,700
Ibanez $2,500
Marte $3,900
Ohtani $6,400
Rodriguez $5,200
Santander $4,400
Hays $3,800
Robert $4,900
Hicks $2,600
Trout $6,300
Garcia $5,700
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
BAL (vs. Brandon Williamson): 71.84 Projected Points
TEX (vs. Matthew Boyd): 71.68 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Sonny Gray): 71.62 Projected Points
SEA (vs. Trevor Williams): 67.83 Projected Points
NYM (vs. Colin Rea): 67.47 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
WSH (vs. Luis Castillo): 54.2 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Justin Verlander): 56.67 Projected Points
MIN (vs. Spencer Strider): 58.71 Projected Points
DET (vs. Andrew Heaney): 60.27 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Dylan Cease): 61.28 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Spencer Strider: 29.95 Today, 29.42 Previous Max
Anthony Santander: 9.19 Today, 9.15 Previous Max
Adley Rutschman: 9.16 Today, 9.16 Previous Max
Adolis Garcia: 9.08 Today, 9.06 Previous Max
Austin Hays: 8.74 Today, 8.47 Previous Max
Josh Jung: 8.32 Today, 8.1 Previous Max
Andy Ibanez: 8.0 Today, 7.67 Previous Max
Jorge Mateo: 7.91 Today, 7.83 Previous Max
Zack Short: 6.99 Today, 6.76 Previous Max
Game by Game Previews
CIN @ BAL
Projected Game Score:
BAL 5.46 - CIN 4.32
BAL 55.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 10.0
Projected Total: 9.78
2023 Pitcher Stats
Brandon Williamson: 7 GS, 587 Pitches, 17.0 K%, 8.2 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 43.6 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%, 33.1 GB%, 14 Brl%
Cole Irvin: 5 GS, 442 Pitches, 21.6 K%, 9.0 BB%, 10.4 SwStr%, 49.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%, 30.3 GB%, 14 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Brandon Williamson (CIN): 89 Pitches 5.54 IP, 6.0 H, 3.2 ER, 5.0 K, 2.2 BB, 11.61 FPts
Cole Irvin (BAL): 65 Pitches 3.89 IP, 4.3 H, 2.0 ER, 2.8 K, 1.0 BB, 7.92 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Brandon Williamson - 3.5 strikeouts
Cole Irvin - 3.5 strikeouts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Kevin Newman: 4.25 PA, 1.16 H, 1.64 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.41 FPts
2. Matt McLain: 4.18 PA, 1.08 H, 1.95 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 9.09 FPts
3. Jonathan India: 4.0 PA, 0.95 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.27 FPts
4. Elly De La Cruz: 4.0 PA, 0.89 H, 1.65 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.1 FPts
5. Spencer Steer: 3.9 PA, 0.9 H, 1.45 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.88 FPts
6. Joey Votto: 3.78 PA, 0.83 H, 1.48 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.78 FPts
7. Nick Senzel: 3.62 PA, 0.86 H, 1.25 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.97 FPts
8. TJ Friedl: 3.48 PA, 0.87 H, 1.24 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.25 FPts
9. Luke Maile: 3.15 PA, 0.72 H, 1.2 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.29 FPts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Austin Hays: 4.47 PA, 1.12 H, 2.0 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.74 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.4 PA, 1.0 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.16 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.33 PA, 1.02 H, 2.0 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.19 FPts
4. Gunnar Henderson: 4.14 PA, 0.87 H, 1.55 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.43 FPts
5. Ramon Urias: 4.07 PA, 0.94 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.59 FPts
6. Aaron Hicks: 3.94 PA, 0.81 H, 1.35 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.39 FPts
7. Jordan Westburg: 3.88 PA, 0.95 H, 1.74 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.06 FPts
8. Jorge Mateo: 3.67 PA, 0.83 H, 1.42 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.3 SB, 7.91 FPts
9. Ryan McKenna: 3.25 PA, 0.65 H, 1.1 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.37 FPts
Best Bets
Cole Irvin BAL - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (+120.0) - 0.23 value
Brandon Williamson CIN - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-150.0) - 0.131 value
Nick Senzel CIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-165.0) - 0.104 value
Spencer Steer CIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.095 value
Cole Irvin BAL - ER Allowed Under 2.5 (-110.0) - 0.078 value
Elly De La Cruz CIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.069 value
Aaron Hicks BAL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-195.0) - 0.06 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Jordan Westburg (BAL) SS $2000: 8.06 Proj, 1.41 Score
Anthony Santander (BAL) OF $4400: 9.19 Proj, 1.26 Score
Austin Hays (BAL) OF $3800: 8.74 Proj, 1.23 Score
Aaron Hicks (BAL) OF $2600: 7.39 Proj, 1.19 Score
Ramon Urias (BAL) 1B/3B $2900: 7.59 Proj, 1.17 Score
For the rest of the previews, you will have to become a paid sub!