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DFS & Betting Game Previews - May 16th

DFS & Betting Game Previews - May 16th

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

Jon A's avatar
Jon A
May 16, 2023
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MLB Data Warehouse
MLB Data Warehouse
DFS & Betting Game Previews - May 16th
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Shout out to Producer Lee for the new logo for this bad boy:

Looks dope! I guess I shouldn’t call him Producer Lee anymore because we don’t run the poddy anymore, but I guess “Produce” is a pretty broad word -he produced these logos for me so it counts - he remains Producer Lee!


Today I have added BEST BETS and TOP DFS PLAYS to each game preview, so we have seriously upgraded this! I didn’t know how I’d feel about this when I started it last week, but I’m really loving it right now so I think it will keep going.

The problem I’m running into now is that I have bit off quite a lot for myself to chew on. My days are pretty much non-stop work at this point, but hey - idle hands are the devil’s plaything! Let’s go, we’ll rest in November - baby!


Game Previews


LAA @ BAL

Projected Game Score:

BAL 5.34 - LAA 4.78
BAL 52.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.12

Pitcher Projections

Dean Kremer (BAL): 92 Pitches 5.5 IP, 6.0 H, 3.0 ER, 4.6 K, 1.9 BB, 11.66 FPts
Chase Silseth (LAA): 75 Pitches 4.4 IP, 4.7 H, 2.5 ER, 3.3 K, 2.1 BB, 8.09 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Dean Kremer - 4.5 strikeouts
Chase Silseth - Prop Not Found

LAA Hitter Projections

1. Taylor Ward: 4.4 PA, 1.05 H, 1.77 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.17 FPts
2. Mike Trout: 4.23 PA, 1.06 H, 2.18 TB, 0.29 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.53 FPts
3. Shohei Ohtani: 4.16 PA, 1.03 H, 1.96 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.81 FPts
4. Hunter Renfroe: 4.11 PA, 0.93 H, 1.65 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.32 FPts
5. Brandon Drury: 3.97 PA, 0.94 H, 1.65 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.12 FPts
6. Matt Thaiss: 3.81 PA, 0.71 H, 1.19 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.8 FPts
7. Gio Urshela: 3.73 PA, 0.93 H, 1.37 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.94 FPts
8. Luis Rengifo: 3.6 PA, 0.87 H, 1.35 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.1 FPts
9. Zach Neto: 3.37 PA, 0.81 H, 1.34 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.16 FPts

BAL Hitter Projections

1. Cedric Mullins II: 4.52 PA, 1.07 H, 1.69 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.28 SB, 9.55 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.41 PA, 1.0 H, 1.69 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.11 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.32 PA, 1.04 H, 1.99 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.97 FPts
4. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.2 PA, 1.01 H, 1.86 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.43 FPts
5. Gunnar Henderson: 4.09 PA, 0.83 H, 1.44 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.28 FPts
6. Austin Hays: 3.95 PA, 0.94 H, 1.56 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.03 FPts
7. Adam Frazier: 3.79 PA, 0.96 H, 1.34 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.9 FPts
8. Terrin Vavra: 3.48 PA, 0.77 H, 1.27 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.48 FPts
9. Jorge Mateo: 3.42 PA, 0.74 H, 1.17 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.29 SB, 6.95 FPts

Best Bets

Mike Trout LAA - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.141 value
Shohei Ohtani LAA - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.083 value
Anthony Santander BAL - Total Bases Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.079 value
Adley Rutschman BAL - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+130.0) - 0.069 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

PIT @ DET

Projected Game Score:

PIT 3.8 - DET 3.56
PIT 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.36

Pitcher Projections

Michael Lorenzen (DET): 97 Pitches 6.1 IP, 5.1 H, 2.6 ER, 4.8 K, 2.9 BB, 13.96 FPts
Luis Ortiz (PIT): 83 Pitches 5.3 IP, 4.8 H, 2.4 ER, 5.1 K, 2.2 BB, 13.74 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Michael Lorenzen - 4.5 strikeouts
Luis Ortiz - 4.5 strikeouts

PIT Hitter Projections

1. Andrew McCutchen: 4.37 PA, 0.86 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.4 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.22 PA, 1.03 H, 1.72 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.11 FPts
3. Carlos Santana: 4.18 PA, 0.81 H, 1.32 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.97 FPts
4. Jack Suwinski: 4.03 PA, 0.74 H, 1.36 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.38 FPts
5. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 3.94 PA, 0.93 H, 1.34 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.07 FPts
6. Tucupita Marcano: 3.78 PA, 0.78 H, 1.1 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.41 FPts
7. Connor Joe: 3.77 PA, 0.81 H, 1.25 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.4 FPts
8. Ji Hwan Bae: 3.65 PA, 0.81 H, 1.06 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.13 SB, 5.55 FPts
9. Austin Hedges: 3.21 PA, 0.55 H, 0.79 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.02 SB, 3.74 FPts

DET Hitter Projections

1. Zach McKinstry: 4.29 PA, 0.85 H, 1.32 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.65 FPts
2. Riley Greene: 4.32 PA, 0.97 H, 1.51 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.35 FPts
3. Javier Baez: 4.13 PA, 0.88 H, 1.38 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.47 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.12 PA, 0.86 H, 1.44 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.57 FPts
5. Nick Maton: 3.86 PA, 0.69 H, 1.09 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.64 FPts
6. Andy Ibanez: 3.7 PA, 0.94 H, 1.47 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.26 FPts
7. Akil Baddoo: 3.61 PA, 0.74 H, 1.12 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.46 FPts
8. Matt Vierling: 3.56 PA, 0.81 H, 1.18 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.67 FPts
9. Jake Rogers: 3.35 PA, 0.61 H, 1.03 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.05 FPts

Best Bets

Luis Ortiz PIT - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+115.0) - 0.11 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

WSH @ MIA

Projected Game Score:

MIA 4.16 - WSH 3.7
MIA 52.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.86

Pitcher Projections

Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 98 Pitches 6.2 IP, 5.9 H, 2.7 ER, 5.9 K, 1.9 BB, 16.32 FPts
Josiah Gray (WSH): 95 Pitches 6.0 IP, 5.5 H, 2.7 ER, 5.6 K, 2.0 BB, 15.23 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Jesus Luzardo - 5.5 strikeouts
Josiah Gray - 4.5 strikeouts

WSH Hitter Projections

1. Lane Thomas: 4.37 PA, 0.92 H, 1.5 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.44 FPts
2. Luis Garcia: 4.27 PA, 1.05 H, 1.61 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.72 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.18 PA, 1.09 H, 1.73 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.22 FPts
4. Keibert Ruiz: 4.07 PA, 1.02 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.1 FPts
5. Alex Call: 3.95 PA, 0.77 H, 1.17 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.5 FPts
6. Jeimer Candelario: 3.87 PA, 0.8 H, 1.32 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.79 FPts
7. Dominic Smith: 3.77 PA, 0.81 H, 1.22 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.7 FPts
8. Stone Garrett: 3.56 PA, 0.74 H, 1.24 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.64 FPts
9. C.J. Abrams: 3.33 PA, 0.8 H, 1.19 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.36 FPts

MIA Hitter Projections

1. Jon Berti: 4.33 PA, 0.89 H, 1.31 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.35 SB, 8.44 FPts
2. Garrett Cooper: 4.21 PA, 0.94 H, 1.56 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.14 FPts
3. Luis Arraez: 4.13 PA, 1.12 H, 1.65 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.77 FPts
4. Jorge Soler: 4.08 PA, 0.84 H, 1.72 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.88 FPts
5. Bryan De La Cruz: 3.93 PA, 0.93 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.76 FPts
6. Jean Segura: 3.85 PA, 0.93 H, 1.38 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.56 FPts
7. Peyton Burdick: 3.73 PA, 0.72 H, 1.2 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.64 FPts
8. Nick Fortes: 3.63 PA, 0.78 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.12 FPts
9. Joey Wendle: 3.31 PA, 0.79 H, 1.2 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.53 FPts

Best Bets

WSH - MoneyLine (+140) - 0.054 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Game not on slate

NYY @ TOR

Projected Game Score:

TOR 4.76 - NYY 4.54
TOR 51.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.3

Pitcher Projections

Kevin Gausman (TOR): 99 Pitches 6.2 IP, 5.8 H, 2.7 ER, 6.9 K, 1.4 BB, 18.94 FPts
Domingo German (NYY): 87 Pitches 5.4 IP, 5.3 H, 2.7 ER, 5.1 K, 1.7 BB, 13.37 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Kevin Gausman - 6.5 strikeouts
Domingo German - 4.5 strikeouts

NYY Hitter Projections

1. Gleyber Torres: 4.67 PA, 1.02 H, 1.67 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.79 FPts
2. Aaron Judge: 4.56 PA, 1.08 H, 2.21 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.07 SB, 9.97 FPts
3. Anthony Rizzo: 4.47 PA, 1.01 H, 1.86 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.48 FPts
4. D.J. LeMahieu: 4.35 PA, 1.0 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.01 FPts
5. Jake Bauers: 4.25 PA, 0.86 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.87 FPts
6. Harrison Bader: 4.1 PA, 0.94 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.99 FPts
7. Anthony Volpe: 4.03 PA, 0.84 H, 1.46 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.24 FPts
8. Jose Trevino: 3.78 PA, 0.83 H, 1.26 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.26 FPts
9. Oswaldo Cabrera: 3.6 PA, 0.71 H, 1.13 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.53 FPts

TOR Hitter Projections

1. George Springer: 4.48 PA, 0.98 H, 1.65 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.99 FPts
2. Bo Bichette: 4.38 PA, 1.16 H, 1.92 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.74 FPts
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.3 PA, 1.08 H, 1.92 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.71 FPts
4. Daulton Varsho: 4.18 PA, 0.9 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.07 FPts
5. Matt Chapman: 4.09 PA, 0.84 H, 1.59 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.62 FPts
6. Whit Merrifield: 3.87 PA, 0.9 H, 1.33 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.01 FPts
7. Brandon Belt: 3.73 PA, 0.76 H, 1.43 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.81 FPts
8. Danny Jansen: 3.72 PA, 0.79 H, 1.47 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.51 FPts
9. Kevin Kiermaier: 3.39 PA, 0.78 H, 1.14 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.79 FPts

Best Bets

Aaron Judge NYY - Total Bases Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.136 value
NYY - MoneyLine (+154) - 0.094 value
Gleyber Torres NYY - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+135.0) - 0.071 value
Bo Bichette TOR - Total Bases Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.06 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Aaron Judge (NYY) OF $6100: 9.97 Proj, 1.31 Score
Brandon Belt (TOR) 1B $2100: 6.81 Proj, 1.24 Score
Jake Bauers (NYY) OF $2000: 6.87 Proj, 1.19 Score
Bo Bichette (TOR) SS $5200: 8.74 Proj, 1.15 Score
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1B $5700: 8.71 Proj, 1.1 Score

Annnnd I have to cut off you free-loaders there! Become a paid subscriber for the rest of the games to become available to you. This will be out most every weekday and weekends when I find the time!

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