DFS & Betting Game Previews - May 16th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Shout out to Producer Lee for the new logo for this bad boy:
Looks dope! I guess I shouldn’t call him Producer Lee anymore because we don’t run the poddy anymore, but I guess “Produce” is a pretty broad word -he produced these logos for me so it counts - he remains Producer Lee!
Today I have added BEST BETS and TOP DFS PLAYS to each game preview, so we have seriously upgraded this! I didn’t know how I’d feel about this when I started it last week, but I’m really loving it right now so I think it will keep going.
The problem I’m running into now is that I have bit off quite a lot for myself to chew on. My days are pretty much non-stop work at this point, but hey - idle hands are the devil’s plaything! Let’s go, we’ll rest in November - baby!
Game Previews
LAA @ BAL
Projected Game Score:
BAL 5.34 - LAA 4.78
BAL 52.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.12
Pitcher Projections
Dean Kremer (BAL): 92 Pitches 5.5 IP, 6.0 H, 3.0 ER, 4.6 K, 1.9 BB, 11.66 FPts
Chase Silseth (LAA): 75 Pitches 4.4 IP, 4.7 H, 2.5 ER, 3.3 K, 2.1 BB, 8.09 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Dean Kremer - 4.5 strikeouts
Chase Silseth - Prop Not Found
LAA Hitter Projections
1. Taylor Ward: 4.4 PA, 1.05 H, 1.77 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.17 FPts
2. Mike Trout: 4.23 PA, 1.06 H, 2.18 TB, 0.29 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.53 FPts
3. Shohei Ohtani: 4.16 PA, 1.03 H, 1.96 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.81 FPts
4. Hunter Renfroe: 4.11 PA, 0.93 H, 1.65 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.32 FPts
5. Brandon Drury: 3.97 PA, 0.94 H, 1.65 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.12 FPts
6. Matt Thaiss: 3.81 PA, 0.71 H, 1.19 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.8 FPts
7. Gio Urshela: 3.73 PA, 0.93 H, 1.37 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.94 FPts
8. Luis Rengifo: 3.6 PA, 0.87 H, 1.35 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.1 FPts
9. Zach Neto: 3.37 PA, 0.81 H, 1.34 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.16 FPts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Cedric Mullins II: 4.52 PA, 1.07 H, 1.69 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.28 SB, 9.55 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.41 PA, 1.0 H, 1.69 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.11 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.32 PA, 1.04 H, 1.99 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.97 FPts
4. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.2 PA, 1.01 H, 1.86 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.43 FPts
5. Gunnar Henderson: 4.09 PA, 0.83 H, 1.44 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.28 FPts
6. Austin Hays: 3.95 PA, 0.94 H, 1.56 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.03 FPts
7. Adam Frazier: 3.79 PA, 0.96 H, 1.34 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.9 FPts
8. Terrin Vavra: 3.48 PA, 0.77 H, 1.27 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.48 FPts
9. Jorge Mateo: 3.42 PA, 0.74 H, 1.17 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.29 SB, 6.95 FPts
Best Bets
Mike Trout LAA - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.141 value
Shohei Ohtani LAA - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.083 value
Anthony Santander BAL - Total Bases Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.079 value
Adley Rutschman BAL - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+130.0) - 0.069 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
PIT @ DET
Projected Game Score:
PIT 3.8 - DET 3.56
PIT 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.36
Pitcher Projections
Michael Lorenzen (DET): 97 Pitches 6.1 IP, 5.1 H, 2.6 ER, 4.8 K, 2.9 BB, 13.96 FPts
Luis Ortiz (PIT): 83 Pitches 5.3 IP, 4.8 H, 2.4 ER, 5.1 K, 2.2 BB, 13.74 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Michael Lorenzen - 4.5 strikeouts
Luis Ortiz - 4.5 strikeouts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Andrew McCutchen: 4.37 PA, 0.86 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.4 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.22 PA, 1.03 H, 1.72 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.11 FPts
3. Carlos Santana: 4.18 PA, 0.81 H, 1.32 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.97 FPts
4. Jack Suwinski: 4.03 PA, 0.74 H, 1.36 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.38 FPts
5. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 3.94 PA, 0.93 H, 1.34 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.07 FPts
6. Tucupita Marcano: 3.78 PA, 0.78 H, 1.1 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.41 FPts
7. Connor Joe: 3.77 PA, 0.81 H, 1.25 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.4 FPts
8. Ji Hwan Bae: 3.65 PA, 0.81 H, 1.06 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.13 SB, 5.55 FPts
9. Austin Hedges: 3.21 PA, 0.55 H, 0.79 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.02 SB, 3.74 FPts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Zach McKinstry: 4.29 PA, 0.85 H, 1.32 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.65 FPts
2. Riley Greene: 4.32 PA, 0.97 H, 1.51 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.35 FPts
3. Javier Baez: 4.13 PA, 0.88 H, 1.38 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.47 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.12 PA, 0.86 H, 1.44 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.57 FPts
5. Nick Maton: 3.86 PA, 0.69 H, 1.09 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.64 FPts
6. Andy Ibanez: 3.7 PA, 0.94 H, 1.47 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.26 FPts
7. Akil Baddoo: 3.61 PA, 0.74 H, 1.12 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.46 FPts
8. Matt Vierling: 3.56 PA, 0.81 H, 1.18 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.67 FPts
9. Jake Rogers: 3.35 PA, 0.61 H, 1.03 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.05 FPts
Best Bets
Luis Ortiz PIT - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+115.0) - 0.11 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
WSH @ MIA
Projected Game Score:
MIA 4.16 - WSH 3.7
MIA 52.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.86
Pitcher Projections
Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 98 Pitches 6.2 IP, 5.9 H, 2.7 ER, 5.9 K, 1.9 BB, 16.32 FPts
Josiah Gray (WSH): 95 Pitches 6.0 IP, 5.5 H, 2.7 ER, 5.6 K, 2.0 BB, 15.23 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jesus Luzardo - 5.5 strikeouts
Josiah Gray - 4.5 strikeouts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. Lane Thomas: 4.37 PA, 0.92 H, 1.5 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.44 FPts
2. Luis Garcia: 4.27 PA, 1.05 H, 1.61 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.72 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.18 PA, 1.09 H, 1.73 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.22 FPts
4. Keibert Ruiz: 4.07 PA, 1.02 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.1 FPts
5. Alex Call: 3.95 PA, 0.77 H, 1.17 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.5 FPts
6. Jeimer Candelario: 3.87 PA, 0.8 H, 1.32 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.79 FPts
7. Dominic Smith: 3.77 PA, 0.81 H, 1.22 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.7 FPts
8. Stone Garrett: 3.56 PA, 0.74 H, 1.24 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.64 FPts
9. C.J. Abrams: 3.33 PA, 0.8 H, 1.19 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.36 FPts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Jon Berti: 4.33 PA, 0.89 H, 1.31 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.35 SB, 8.44 FPts
2. Garrett Cooper: 4.21 PA, 0.94 H, 1.56 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.14 FPts
3. Luis Arraez: 4.13 PA, 1.12 H, 1.65 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.77 FPts
4. Jorge Soler: 4.08 PA, 0.84 H, 1.72 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.88 FPts
5. Bryan De La Cruz: 3.93 PA, 0.93 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.76 FPts
6. Jean Segura: 3.85 PA, 0.93 H, 1.38 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.56 FPts
7. Peyton Burdick: 3.73 PA, 0.72 H, 1.2 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.64 FPts
8. Nick Fortes: 3.63 PA, 0.78 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.12 FPts
9. Joey Wendle: 3.31 PA, 0.79 H, 1.2 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.53 FPts
Best Bets
WSH - MoneyLine (+140) - 0.054 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
NYY @ TOR
Projected Game Score:
TOR 4.76 - NYY 4.54
TOR 51.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.3
Pitcher Projections
Kevin Gausman (TOR): 99 Pitches 6.2 IP, 5.8 H, 2.7 ER, 6.9 K, 1.4 BB, 18.94 FPts
Domingo German (NYY): 87 Pitches 5.4 IP, 5.3 H, 2.7 ER, 5.1 K, 1.7 BB, 13.37 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Kevin Gausman - 6.5 strikeouts
Domingo German - 4.5 strikeouts
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Gleyber Torres: 4.67 PA, 1.02 H, 1.67 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.79 FPts
2. Aaron Judge: 4.56 PA, 1.08 H, 2.21 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.07 SB, 9.97 FPts
3. Anthony Rizzo: 4.47 PA, 1.01 H, 1.86 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.48 FPts
4. D.J. LeMahieu: 4.35 PA, 1.0 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.01 FPts
5. Jake Bauers: 4.25 PA, 0.86 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.87 FPts
6. Harrison Bader: 4.1 PA, 0.94 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.99 FPts
7. Anthony Volpe: 4.03 PA, 0.84 H, 1.46 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.24 FPts
8. Jose Trevino: 3.78 PA, 0.83 H, 1.26 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.26 FPts
9. Oswaldo Cabrera: 3.6 PA, 0.71 H, 1.13 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.53 FPts
TOR Hitter Projections
1. George Springer: 4.48 PA, 0.98 H, 1.65 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.99 FPts
2. Bo Bichette: 4.38 PA, 1.16 H, 1.92 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.74 FPts
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.3 PA, 1.08 H, 1.92 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.71 FPts
4. Daulton Varsho: 4.18 PA, 0.9 H, 1.61 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.07 FPts
5. Matt Chapman: 4.09 PA, 0.84 H, 1.59 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.62 FPts
6. Whit Merrifield: 3.87 PA, 0.9 H, 1.33 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.01 FPts
7. Brandon Belt: 3.73 PA, 0.76 H, 1.43 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.81 FPts
8. Danny Jansen: 3.72 PA, 0.79 H, 1.47 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.51 FPts
9. Kevin Kiermaier: 3.39 PA, 0.78 H, 1.14 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.79 FPts
Best Bets
Aaron Judge NYY - Total Bases Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.136 value
NYY - MoneyLine (+154) - 0.094 value
Gleyber Torres NYY - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+135.0) - 0.071 value
Bo Bichette TOR - Total Bases Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.06 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Aaron Judge (NYY) OF $6100: 9.97 Proj, 1.31 Score
Brandon Belt (TOR) 1B $2100: 6.81 Proj, 1.24 Score
Jake Bauers (NYY) OF $2000: 6.87 Proj, 1.19 Score
Bo Bichette (TOR) SS $5200: 8.74 Proj, 1.15 Score
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1B $5700: 8.71 Proj, 1.1 Score
Annnnd I have to cut off you free-loaders there! Become a paid subscriber for the rest of the games to become available to you. This will be out most every weekday and weekends when I find the time!