DFS & Betting Game Previews - May 19th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Huge Friday of baseball! This is our first full slate Friday with the upgraded game previews. Here you go, hope everybody is enjoying this and making some money!
I want to offer my disclaimer here again. Sportsbooks are really, really tough to beat. They wouldn’t exist if they were beatable, so tread very lightly here.
These bet values are all new, and while I think they’re pretty solid - I cannot get anywhere near guaranteeing that they will be profitable. Be smart!
Game Previews :: May 19th
ARI @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
ARI 4.08 - PIT 3.2
ARI 56.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.28
Pitcher Projections
Zac Gallen (ARI): 97 Pitches 6.2 IP, 5.0 H, 2.3 ER, 7.2 K, 1.5 BB, 20.64 FPts
Johan Oviedo (PIT): 84 Pitches 5.2 IP, 5.0 H, 2.5 ER, 3.9 K, 2.5 BB, 10.4 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Zac Gallen - 6.5 strikeouts
Johan Oviedo - 4.5 strikeouts
ARI Hitter Projections
1. Josh Rojas: 4.31 PA, 0.97 H, 1.43 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.87 FPts
2. Ketel Marte: 4.28 PA, 1.01 H, 1.59 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.59 FPts
3. Corbin Carroll: 4.16 PA, 0.94 H, 1.57 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.55 FPts
4. Christian Walker: 4.07 PA, 0.85 H, 1.49 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.04 FPts
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 3.96 PA, 0.96 H, 1.44 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.6 FPts
6. Pavin Smith: 3.78 PA, 0.87 H, 1.36 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.41 FPts
7. Dominic Fletcher: 3.78 PA, 0.79 H, 1.18 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.43 FPts
8. Gabriel Moreno: 3.66 PA, 0.91 H, 1.22 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.0 FPts
9. Geraldo Perdomo: 3.3 PA, 0.65 H, 0.91 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.17 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Andrew McCutchen: 4.41 PA, 0.83 H, 1.4 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.56 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.25 PA, 1.04 H, 1.81 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.8 FPts
3. Carlos Santana: 4.23 PA, 0.85 H, 1.44 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.75 FPts
4. Jack Suwinski: 4.06 PA, 0.73 H, 1.4 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.75 FPts
5. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 3.98 PA, 0.89 H, 1.31 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.38 FPts
6. Tucupita Marcano: 3.82 PA, 0.76 H, 1.1 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.05 SB, 4.98 FPts
7. Ji Hwan Bae: 3.81 PA, 0.76 H, 1.02 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.19 FPts
8. Josh Palacios: 3.67 PA, 0.76 H, 1.16 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.3 FPts
9. Austin Hedges: 3.24 PA, 0.53 H, 0.78 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.01 SB, 3.41 FPts
Best Bets
Bryan Reynolds PIT - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+125.0) - 0.074 value
Zac Gallen ARI - ER Allowed Over 1.5 (-145.0) - 0.073 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
NYY @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
NYY 5.64 - CIN 4.42
NYY 56.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 10.5
Projected Total: 10.06
Pitcher Projections
Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 84 Pitches 5.4 IP, 4.6 H, 2.5 ER, 5.6 K, 2.1 BB, 14.99 FPts
Ben Lively (CIN): 50 Pitches 3.1 IP, 3.0 H, 1.7 ER, 2.5 K, 1.3 BB, 6.36 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Clarke Schmidt - 5.5 strikeouts
Ben Lively - Prop Not Found
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Gleyber Torres: 4.56 PA, 1.03 H, 1.75 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.77 FPts
2. Aaron Judge: 4.45 PA, 1.09 H, 2.37 TB, 0.35 HR, 0.08 SB, 11.48 FPts
3. Anthony Rizzo: 4.36 PA, 0.99 H, 1.93 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.46 FPts
4. D.J. LeMahieu: 4.24 PA, 0.98 H, 1.53 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.0 FPts
5. Jake Bauers: 4.06 PA, 0.81 H, 1.37 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.49 FPts
6. Harrison Bader: 4.0 PA, 0.95 H, 1.58 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.71 FPts
7. Anthony Volpe: 3.93 PA, 0.87 H, 1.59 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.42 FPts
8. Kyle Higashioka: 3.55 PA, 0.73 H, 1.38 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.16 FPts
9. Oswaldo Cabrera: 3.51 PA, 0.67 H, 1.13 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.94 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Jonathan India: 4.37 PA, 0.95 H, 1.48 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.42 FPts
2. Matt McLain: 4.4 PA, 0.86 H, 1.59 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.39 FPts
3. Jake Fraley: 4.25 PA, 0.86 H, 1.45 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.42 FPts
4. Spencer Steer: 4.23 PA, 0.89 H, 1.49 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.25 FPts
5. Tyler Stephenson: 3.98 PA, 0.95 H, 1.49 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.92 FPts
6. Nick Senzel: 3.93 PA, 0.94 H, 1.41 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.78 FPts
7. Henry Ramos: 3.85 PA, 0.85 H, 1.37 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.41 FPts
8. Wil Myers: 3.61 PA, 0.76 H, 1.25 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.01 FPts
9. Stuart Fairchild: 3.25 PA, 0.64 H, 1.11 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.54 FPts
Best Bets
Anthony Rizzo NYY - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+115.0) - 0.061 value
Aaron Judge NYY - Total Bases Over 1.5 (-140.0) - 0.057 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
MIL @ TB
Projected Game Score:
TB 5.08 - MIL 3.78
TB 57.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 8.86
Pitcher Projections
Shane McClanahan (TB): 94 Pitches 6.0 IP, 4.6 H, 2.5 ER, 7.7 K, 2.5 BB, 21.02 FPts
Adrian Houser (MIL): 87 Pitches 5.4 IP, 5.6 H, 2.8 ER, 4.0 K, 2.1 BB, 10.19 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Shane McClanahan - 7.5 strikeouts
Adrian Houser - 3.5 strikeouts
MIL Hitter Projections
1. Owen Miller: 4.34 PA, 0.91 H, 1.37 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.09 FPts
2. William Contreras: 4.34 PA, 0.91 H, 1.7 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.72 FPts
3. Willy Adames: 4.21 PA, 0.76 H, 1.46 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.04 FPts
4. Christian Yelich: 4.14 PA, 0.82 H, 1.21 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.05 FPts
5. Michael Brosseau: 3.76 PA, 0.7 H, 1.2 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.73 FPts
6. Darin Ruf: 3.76 PA, 0.67 H, 1.28 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.33 FPts
7. Brian Anderson: 3.79 PA, 0.72 H, 1.19 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.76 FPts
8. Tyrone Taylor: 3.59 PA, 0.75 H, 1.35 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.0 FPts
9. Joey Wiemer: 3.3 PA, 0.68 H, 1.16 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.47 FPts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Josh Lowe: 4.62 PA, 1.03 H, 1.73 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.97 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.5 PA, 1.17 H, 1.83 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.14 SB, 9.11 FPts
3. Randy Arozarena: 4.48 PA, 1.05 H, 1.76 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.2 SB, 9.36 FPts
4. Brandon Lowe: 4.31 PA, 0.92 H, 1.76 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.8 FPts
5. Harold Ramirez: 4.21 PA, 1.13 H, 1.7 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.6 FPts
6. Isaac Paredes: 4.05 PA, 0.83 H, 1.32 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.44 FPts
7. Luke Raley: 3.91 PA, 0.84 H, 1.57 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.15 FPts
8. Jose Siri: 3.87 PA, 0.75 H, 1.25 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.53 FPts
9. Francisco Mejia: 3.62 PA, 0.81 H, 1.21 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.32 FPts
Best Bets
Shane McClanahan TB - ER Allowed Over 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.164 value
MIL - MoneyLine (+215.0) - 0.11 value
Wander Franco TB - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+120.0) - 0.105 value
Randy Arozarena TB - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+145.0) - 0.101 value
Josh Lowe TB - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+140.0) - 0.091 value
Adrian Houser MIL - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (+105.0) - 0.088 value
Josh Lowe TB - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.077 value
William Contreras MIL - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+155.0) - 0.059 value
Randy Arozarena TB - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.053 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
DET @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
DET 3.84 - WSH 3.64
DET 51.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.48
Pitcher Projections
Jake Irvin (WSH): 86 Pitches 5.0 IP, 4.7 H, 2.3 ER, 5.2 K, 1.7 BB, 13.69 FPts
Matthew Boyd (DET): 83 Pitches 5.2 IP, 5.0 H, 2.2 ER, 3.8 K, 1.4 BB, 11.6 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jake Irvin - 4.5 strikeouts
Matthew Boyd - 4.5 strikeouts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Zach McKinstry: 4.32 PA, 0.92 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.98 FPts
2. Riley Greene: 4.34 PA, 1.06 H, 1.7 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.85 FPts
3. Javier Baez: 4.15 PA, 0.91 H, 1.47 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.71 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.14 PA, 0.9 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.88 FPts
5. Nick Maton: 3.88 PA, 0.74 H, 1.2 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.98 FPts
6. Andy Ibanez: 3.74 PA, 0.95 H, 1.54 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.49 FPts
7. Akil Baddoo: 3.63 PA, 0.78 H, 1.19 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.55 FPts
8. Matt Vierling: 3.58 PA, 0.85 H, 1.26 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.92 FPts
9. Jake Rogers: 3.37 PA, 0.67 H, 1.17 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.45 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. Lane Thomas: 4.45 PA, 0.99 H, 1.64 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.79 FPts
2. Luis Garcia: 4.34 PA, 1.1 H, 1.67 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.93 FPts
3. Jeimer Candelario: 4.24 PA, 0.94 H, 1.52 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.6 FPts
4. Keibert Ruiz: 4.15 PA, 1.03 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.97 FPts
5. Alex Call: 4.01 PA, 0.81 H, 1.23 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.54 FPts
6. Dominic Smith: 3.94 PA, 0.91 H, 1.33 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.0 FPts
7. Stone Garrett: 3.75 PA, 0.83 H, 1.37 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.11 FPts
8. Ildemaro Vargas: 3.71 PA, 0.86 H, 1.21 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.17 FPts
9. C.J. Abrams: 3.39 PA, 0.8 H, 1.13 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.21 FPts
Best Bets
Matthew Boyd DET - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (-115.0) - 0.133 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Lane Thomas (WSH) OF $3900: 7.79 Proj, 1.06 Score
Akil Baddoo (DET) OF $2600: 6.55 Proj, 1.06 Score
Jake Rogers (DET) C $2200: 5.45 Proj, 1.02 Score
Keibert Ruiz (WSH) C $3700: 6.97 Proj, 1.0 Score
Alex Call (WSH) OF $2800: 6.54 Proj, 0.98 Score
CHC @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
CHC 4.5 - PHI 4.14
CHC 52.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.64
Pitcher Projections
Marcus Stroman (CHC): 89 Pitches 5.4 IP, 5.5 H, 2.6 ER, 5.2 K, 2.0 BB, 13.47 FPts
Ranger Suarez (PHI): 80 Pitches 5.0 IP, 4.9 H, 2.3 ER, 4.8 K, 1.6 BB, 12.93 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Marcus Stroman - 4.5 strikeouts
Ranger Suarez - 4.5 strikeouts
CHC Hitter Projections
1. Nico Hoerner: 4.49 PA, 1.17 H, 1.61 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.22 SB, 8.35 FPts
2. Dansby Swanson: 4.43 PA, 1.03 H, 1.68 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.21 FPts
3. Ian Happ: 4.29 PA, 0.9 H, 1.39 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.3 FPts
4. Seiya Suzuki: 4.22 PA, 0.95 H, 1.56 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.95 FPts
5. Cody Bellinger: 4.14 PA, 0.79 H, 1.29 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.72 FPts
6. Patrick Wisdom: 3.96 PA, 0.73 H, 1.5 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.16 FPts
7. Christopher Morel: 3.84 PA, 0.81 H, 1.48 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.09 FPts
8. Trey Mancini: 3.78 PA, 0.88 H, 1.4 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.33 FPts
9. Yan Gomes: 3.48 PA, 0.84 H, 1.4 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.75 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Bryson Stott: 4.23 PA, 1.01 H, 1.48 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.05 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.16 PA, 1.05 H, 1.62 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.19 SB, 7.95 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.07 PA, 1.02 H, 1.89 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.22 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 3.99 PA, 0.98 H, 1.57 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.91 FPts
5. Kyle Schwarber: 3.93 PA, 0.75 H, 1.63 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.81 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 3.78 PA, 0.91 H, 1.5 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.27 FPts
7. Alec Bohm: 3.69 PA, 0.85 H, 1.24 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.5 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.46 PA, 0.76 H, 1.17 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.79 FPts
9. Kody Clemens: 3.15 PA, 0.6 H, 1.01 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.65 FPts
Best Bets
Dansby Swanson CHC - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+140.0) - 0.07 value
Ranger Suarez PHI - ER Allowed Over 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.063 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Bryce Harper (PHI) OF $6200: 9.22 Proj, 1.08 Score
Dansby Swanson (CHC) SS $4500: 8.21 Proj, 1.05 Score
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) OF $4100: 7.95 Proj, 1.04 Score
Trey Mancini (CHC) 1B $2300: 6.33 Proj, 1.03 Score
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) 3B $4000: 7.16 Proj, 1.02 Score
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