DFS Slate Analysis April 10th
I did this a lot last year, but have not gotten to one yet this year. I’m a bit busier these days, so I can’t make dedicate myself to this a couple of times a week like I did last year.
However, today I have the time so let’s do-it-to-it!
I really enjoy playing MLB DFS, and I think a good share of my subscribers do as well since my main calling card here is the projections.
I’ve made free copies of the projections today so people can see what they’ll get - a lot has been changed since Opening Day when I gave out a free sample as well.
So let’s talk about the Monday night slate! We will reference the projections and reports and all that business as we go, but all of that is only available to paid subscribers, so become one of those today if you aren’t already!
This weekend I decided to take a certain approach this year, or at least for the short term. I build three lineups. One cash lineup, and three tournament lineups. The cash lineup I just play the best plays, and lean heavily on the projections and the “Top Plays” tab of the hitter projections. In the three tournament lineups, I try to just avoid the chalk plays all together and completely embrace the randomness of baseball. This won’t always apply to pitching, as some slates there are just no smart low-ownership SP picks, but most of the time we’ll be going a bit off the board.
Pitchers
The top projections (main slate only, eight games starting at 7 EST)
Scherzer $10,400: 19.29
Urias $9,400: 18.13
Gallen $7,100: 17.85
Castillo $9,600: 17.26
Heaney $7,900: 15.12
Cash
Scherzer goose-egged last time out against the Brewers, so that was annoying. He has just a 17% K% this year, but his SwStr% is fine at 14.5% and walks haven’t been a problem.
The price and matchup (vs. SD) aren’t great, and that pushes him down the list on the value rankings. But all of that said, I think he’s probably still a good cash option - and it will be interesting to see what his ownership is.
The second cash option seems like Gallen with that really cheap price. He’s the top per-dollar projection on the day.
Luis Castillo figures into this somehow too, as he’s been fantastic and gets a fine matchup with the Cubs. I guess it’s either going to be Scherzer+Gallen or Castillo+Gallen. I will just pick whichever duo gets me the money I need for the bats I settle on (this post functions as my research - I haven’t looked at anything yet).
Tourneys
The three we just talked about are in play for tournaments because I don’t think anybody is going to have high ownership on this slate. I actually kind of like Scherzer here too since people will probably be scared off of him because of the bad start to the year and the tough matchup.
The “cheaper ceiling” plays are pretty clear. Andrew Heaney $7,900 and Bryce Elder $6,600. Elder gets the Reds at home, and he had some big DFS games last year in the Majors, going over 30 points twice. His “stuff” is pretty bad though and I think the ownership is going to be high - so I am deeming him a complete fade.
I do kinda like going to decent pitchers in Coors in tournaments since nobody else does it, and tonight we have Steven Matz there who has a really freaking good K-BB% over the last two years - and people probably don’t know that! It has the potential to wreck the whole lineup immediately, but that’s kinda what you gotta do to win the big bucks.
The tourney pool I’m going to try to use then:
Scherzer
Heaney
Castillo
Webb?
Matz?
Hitters
Cash
We have the Angels against Corbin and the Cardinals in Coors, so the ownership is pretty easy to figure out here.
There will be some tough decisions for tournaments, but cash is “easy”. That doesn’t mean they’ll be easy to cash in, it just means the best plays are pretty easy to figure out.
Catcher
Willson Contreras ($4.3)
Salvador Perez ($5.0)
Gabriel Moreano ($2.5)
We probably want to get to Conteras in cash, but I’m fine with the “punt” with Moreno as well against Miley.
1B
Shohei Ohtani ($6.2)
Paul Goldschmidt ($5.9)
Brandon Drury ($3.6)
Ryan Mountcastle ($4.5)
Ryan Noda ($2.2)
That’s a really hefty price for Goldy, but it’s Coors - he’s going to be clicked on a ton (especially with Ohtani being able to play OF as well) - and if he goes off you’re not going to win anything.
2B
This is the position with no big time standout, so it’s probably the one to save some money on. Brendan Donovan is the top guy at $4,500 but he’s less likely to wreck your day - and that’s a pretty high price for him.
Donovan ($4.5)
Ketel Marte ($4.3)
Brandon Drury ($3.6)
Sam Haggerty ($2.3)
Yeah, so I guess there’s not a good option to save money with either. That sucks! Haggerty actually scores an above-average number of DK points per PA with his ability to steal bags, so maybe that’s the move if he’s in the lineup - just punt it and hope he swipes a bag.
SS
No shortstops show up on “top plays”! That’s because the Cardinals, Rockies, and Angels don’t have a real prominent DFS shortstop (Edman hits 9th and that’s tough to click on for $4,200).
The top projections are Witt Jr., Seager, and Swanson (who is at $5,700 against Castillo so see ya later).
My favorites
Witt Jr. ($4.9 is a little cheap)
Seager ($4.8)
Tovar ($2.9)
Tovar is not a good fantasy bat at all but the price just won’t come up. I want Seager pretty bad here but I don’t know if the salary will allow for it.
3B
Nolan Arenado ($5.2)
Anthony Rendon ($3.9)
Jace Peterson ($2.7)
Eugenio Suarez ($4.4)
Evan Longoria ($3.5)
Probably going for Arenado here.
OF
Trout is the top play on the slate by projections, and it’s a pretty tough fade about Corbin who just bleeds fantasy points. I just don’t know how we’re going to pay for all of this!
Expensive:
Trout ($6.1)
Acuna ($6.3)
Rodriguez ($5.8)
Ohtani ($6.2)
Hernandez ($5.1)
Ward ($5.3)
Medium:
Renfroe ($4.7)
O’Neill ($4.3)
A Garcia ($4.7)
Cheap:
Haggerty ($2.3)
E Rosario ($2.2)
Burleson ($2.9)
Olivares ($3.3)
Hilliard ($2.1)
Now I’m re-thinking the Scherzer/Castillo thing and wondering if it’s not the right move to go with Elder & Gallen for the savings. That probably is the right way to go in cash. If Elder busts (I think this is quite possible), it shouldn’t end your night because a ton of people are going to flock to him. So let’s try that
Cash lineup:
SP: Gallen
SP: Elder
C: Contreras
1B: Goldschmidt
2B: Haggerty
3B: Arenado
SS: Seager
OF: Trout
OF: Renfroe
OF: Burleson
Tournaments
I think I’m going to fade Coors entirely in my three lineups, but I do believe I’ll have a Trout+Ohtani+Renfroe lineup. Coors might keep some ownership away from the Angels, and those three are just such high-ceiling players that it might be worth it even if I’m wrong - we can differentiate in other ways with that. Makes sense to make that my Matz lineup since the Angels stack plays on the Coors game being a dud.
Building that out:
SP Gallen
SP Matz
C O’Hoppe
1B Ohtani
2B Drury
3B Longoria
SS Witt Jr.
OF Trout
OF Renfroe
OF Carroll
Added a little D’Backs flavor in there too against Miley and we get Witt Jr.
The second one I want to do is the Braves stack. The offense is so loaded and they’ll definitely go lower-owned tonight with these other spots available and Ashcraft being a guy that got a little bit of hype in the preseason.
SP Heaney
SP Castillo
C T Murphy
1B Olson
2B Albies
3B Riley
SS Arcia
OF Acuna
OF Haggerty
OF Burleson
Yeah a Cardinal made it in there just because the price fit right
Last lineup I’m going to the Mariners (minus France cause he’s too expensive for his ceiling) with Seager+Semien. I could not afford Scherzer, so I ended up with none of him - not what I wanted, but that’s the way she goes, Rick!
SP Gallen
SP Webb
C Raleigh
1B Pasquantino
2B Semien
3B Suarez
SS Seager
OF Rodriguez
OF Hernandez
OF F Reyes
Okay great that’s it - hope somebody read this!