DraftKings Picks & Analysis - May 9
The first paid fantasy baseball writing gig I ever took was doing DFS picks a couple of times a week for egregiously bad website called Draft Shot. It looks like the site is still running but they’ve transitioned to betting picks or something. It was a very strange situation because I never talked to anybody from the site, I just published my picks on the days I had and got paid a whopping $15 every time I did it. I’m pretty sure literally nobody was reading the posts either because it as only for their paid members, and I never got a single comment or any interaction whatsoever - I’m pretty sure the site didn’t really have any members. I didn’t care though, I could just pump something out in 20 minutes and then buy myself a case of Southern Tier 2XMAS every couple of weeks with the money.
My point is to say that I feel like a DFS writer at heart. There is just so much to do and say and analyze in the game.
This week (and by this week, I probably just mean today), I’m going to write an extra article for you subscribers talking about the DFS slate. I’m also promising myself that I will win a DraftKings tournament in the next five days. I had a pretty nice hit earlier in the year taking 2nd place in a $20,000 tournament (I only cashed for $1,000 - don’t get crazy on me) - and I’m coming back for more. We also finally have a Monday night with a serious number of games and no weather problems. So here we go!
Pitchers
I added a dope-ass dropdown on the MLB Tableau dashboard where you can filter the pitching stats just by guys pitching tonight, so here’s the results of that in super-pixelated image form:
What I’m not going to give out are my highly coveted and guaranteed to win a zillion dollars DraftKings projections for tonight, because that’s only for paid members of this SubStack, and I don’t want to make their investment worth less by giving them out for free. All you readers of this that aren’t paid subs - I hope you clicked that link and got the Google Docs banhammer - serves you right!
What I will tell you is that I’m not taking any chances on pitchers this year. I’m going to run out 5-10 lineups, and I will only be selecting from these pitchers
Carlos Rodon $10K
Brandon Woodruff $8.2
MacKenzie Gore $9.7
Paul Blackburn $7.5
That leaves me strapped for money to buy hitters with, I’m not paying that much money or Julio Urias’s 16% K% or Michael Kopech’s inconsistency with those first three guys on the board.
Blackburn will be the only one I even consider below $8,000 - but that doesn’t seem optimal at all given his pitch counts this year.
I love the K:BB ratios there, but the ceiling is basically non-existent given these pitch counts. Still think he’s good enough to stumble into 15 DraftKings points which will play if the expensive bats go off - but I’m going to do my best to not play him at all.
Honestly, I’m not even really sure why you’d play Gore over Woodruff for $1,500 more - that seems really loopy given that has the -165 matchup with the Reds - but maybe those two can be paired together where I can’t afford Rodon. Anyways, it’s going to be a narrow pool for me.
Hitters
Here is each offense with their total projected DK points.
LAD 71.3
MIL 69.8
CWS 65.1
SDP 63.9
TB 63.9
LAA 62.3
SFG 62.0
ARI 61.5
CLE 59.8
CIN 59.1
MIA 58.4
CHC 58.9
PHI 57.2
DET 54.2
Stacks
The Dodgers (v Quintana) and White Sox (v Plesac) stacks are seemingly the place to go. I think a little Dodgers fade might be a bit sharp though against Quintana who does get a ton of ground-balls (48%), takes advantage of PNC Park (49.5 PA/HR), and neutralizes lefties very well. Surely Mookie Betts and Trea Turner are in great spots tonight but they’re quite expensive, maybe I’ll differentiate a bit by scratching the Dodgers off and hoping they put up a lackluster game against my former love, the Pittsburgh Pirates.
I’m talking myself into it here, we’re going to go heavy on the White Sox, Brewers, Padres, and Angels. Will build a stack or two of all of those offenses.
Priority Bats
Every day I run pitcher vs. hitter splits data and see which groups of hitters are in the best spots based on how much extra production each pitcher gives up.
The best spots, according to this, for loud contact would be:
Dodgers RHB vs. Quintana (12.4% Brl% in 242 PA)
D’Backs LHB vs. Hernandez (15.6% Brl% in 335 PA)
White Sox RHB vs. Plesac (10.3% Brl% in 375 PA)
All of that considered, the expensive bats we are keeping in the pool are
Trea Turner
Manny Machado
Shohei Ohtani
Jazz Chisholm
Tim Anderson
Luis Robert
Bryce Harper
Mike Trout
Tim Anderson
Most Likely Dongers
dongers lol
Jose Ramirez: 0.29 projected homers
Brandon Lowe: 0.28
Gavin Sheets: 0.27
Franmil Reyes: 0.26
Yasmani Grandal: 0.25
Shohei Ohtani: 0.25
Anthony Rendon: 0.25
AJ Pollock: 0.25
Cheap Bats
Giants are against a lefty tonight (Austin Gomber), so those lefty-masher specialists are all over the top of the projections, but I’m not sure about all that given how often the Giants pinch-hit once the lefty leaves the game and the fact that Gomber is a 48% GB% guy even against righties with a pretty strong 23% K%. Let’s ignore them for tonight.
Alek Thomas - The rookie debuting tonight, and hey he’s a lefty so he’s in a dope spot against Elieser. Rookie hitters are mostly terrible, but look the guy is $2,000 and I’ve already committed to spending like $1,900 on pitchers tonight. He’s going to be in a few lineups.
Darin Ruf - He should stay in the lineup the whole game and he has like a zillion% barrel rate against lefties, although he’s sucked this year and he’s 35 years old so maybe I should stop doing this.
A.J. Pollock - Bad this year but I’m not holding that against anybody after just a month of play - especially him after he missed time right at the beginning of the year. White Sox are in too good of a spot and he’s cheap ($3,700).
Pavin Smith - Probably the best per-dollar bat on the board at $3,100. Only 15 hitters in the league have a barrel rate above 15% and a strikeout rate below 25 - and Pavin is one of them with marks of 17% and 24%. He’s also walking a ton at 13%.
Daulton Varsho - My catcher of choice, although I’ll probably be forced into the $2,500 range at catcher. But Varsho is certainly someone I’ll try to get to leading off against Elieser at $3,800.
Jesus Sanchez - The strikeouts have gone north in a hurry and he’s now above 30% - which is terrible. We don’t care as much about that when I’m trying to win the freaking lottery - and he’s got a ton of pop for $3,700.
Top Plays
SP
Carlos Rodon $10000
Brandon Woodruff $9300
MacKenzie Gore $9700
C
Daulton Varsho $3800
Yasmani Grandal $4600
Jose Herrera $2200
1B
Rowdy Tellez $4700
Jose Abreu $4900
Darin Ruf $3900
This is actually a gross position, good one to punt on if you need to (Seth Brown or Garrett Cooper?)
2B
Jazz Chisholm $5400
Ketel Marte $4100
Brandon Lowe $4400
3B
Manny Machado $5700
Ha-Seong Kim $4500
Jose Ramirez $6200
Kevin Smith $2400
SS
Trea Turner $5400
Tim Anderson $5300
Mauricio Dubon $2300
Willy Adames $5100
OF
Mike Trout $6000
Bryce Harper $5900
Luis Robert $4700
Mookie Betts $5800
AJ Pollock $3700
Pavin Smith $3100
Good luck, I hope I win a quadrillion dollars and you do fine as well!