DraftKings Picks & Analysis - May 10
So I wrote this post for the first time yesterday and made this joke:
… I’m also promising myself that I will win a DraftKings tournament in the next five days.
I had zero expectation of coming through on that promise, but ten hours later, while I was asleep and completely oblivious, I won the DraftKings $250K Relay Throw for a $50,000 payday.
Now clearly the coolest possible thing to do next is get all that cash and delete the DraftKings app.
I can’t quite be that cool, but I am luckily old and cool-headed enough to cash out all $50,000 of that and go right back to my smaller-stakes play. I requested a wire transfer of $50K this morning, and the money is somewhere on the wire right now - quite a morning it was.
I am seriously just going to play for $5 tonight with my buddies, which we do every Tuesday. I’ve been to the mountaintop and I don’t expect to ever be back. That said, this post will a bit less informed than yesterday.
Pitchers
The real dumb thing about all of this is that my big advice in this article yesterday was to pay up for pitching and don’t take any dumb risks. I didn’t specifically mention Humberto Castellanos, but he certainly would have qualified as a dumb risk if I had listed some names - and he was in the $50K lineup I made - I’m such a hypocrite.
The Pool
The top projected pitchers in my model are Justin Verlander ($10,400 - 24.3 points) and Garrett Whitlock ($7,700 - 19.2 points) - and that pairing seems like a pretty good cash duo there.
There are all kinds of other aces on the board too including Robbie Ray, Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito, Joe Ryan, Kyle Wright, and Luis Severino. So this is a brutal slate.
I think Mike Clevinger at $6,900 is a bit interesting. He didn’t have a great outcome last time out but it was really encouraging to see him exceed 90 pitches. But the walks were higher and the strikeouts were low with just an 8% SwStr% - stuff you can forgive as it was his first start back in a long, long time. It’s a thin play but I’m not going to be shocked if he throws six great innings and strikes out eight or something.
Looking at your most important stat K-BB%, here is how the pitching pool shakes out with that
Giolito 32%
Whitlock 31%
Nola 27%
Wright 25%
Verlander 23%
Luzardo 22%
Carrasco 20%
Ryan 20%
Wood 18%
Kluber 18%
I think I’d keep a tournament pool of pitchers to: Verlander, Whitlock, Giolito, Luzardo, Severino, and Nola.
For cash, I think Whitlock is the right way to go, but I can’t really differentiate much between Nola ($8900), Giolito ($9700), and Verlander ($10400) - so go with what you feel there I suppose!
You could also punt with Kikuchi ($6600), who improved a lot in the last outing - but on such a huge slate I’d stick to the better pitchers.
Doing my best to throw away some price-considered ranks
Whitlock
Verlander
Giolito
Nola
Wright
Severino
Luzardo
Hitters
Best Team Spots
Best spots for barrel rates
MIL RHB vs. Greene (18.9% Brl%)
STL RHB vs. Bradish (15.8%)
HOU LHB vs. Ryan (13.8%)
NYY RHB vs. Kikuchi (11.3%)
TEX RHB vs. Keller (11.2%)
Those first two are powered by short samples since they’re rookie pitchers - and the third one doesn’t really consider the clear improvements Ryan has made since a year ago.
Top JA Score Boost Beneficiaries
LAD LHB vs. Wilson
TEX RHB vs. Keller
STL RHB vs. Bradish
BOS LHB vs. Wright
SF LHB vs. Senzatela
NYM RHB vs. Corbin
BAL LHB vs. Wainwright
Lots of these numbers are just the result of a small sample or over-weighting 2021 data… but there ya go, just don’t bet your house on it.
Expensive Hitter Pool
The JA model loves when Ketel Marte faces a lefty, and he’s the top projected bat here with a projection of 11.3. But again, that’s the result of over-weighting Luzardo’s terrible 2021, he’s looking so, so much better this year so I probably wouldn’t go crazy on Marte - but he’s still a really good play given his current form and his price tag of $4300.
Catcher
Probably a great night to punt catcher!
Zunino $3700
Higashioka $3200
Herrera/Rivero $2300/$2000 (whoever is playing for under $2500)
First Base
Belt $4300
Alonso $4800
Shohei $6100
Cooper $2600
Hoskins $4000
Second Base
Marte $4300
Odor $2000
Estrada $3900
Toro $3500 (only if leading off)
^ terrible gross position tonight, I’m leaning towards the punt with Odor
Third Base
Donaldson $4500
Arenado $5600
Witt Jr. $3400
Brad Miller $2700
Jose Ramirez $5800
Shortstop
Seager $4800
Franco $5400
Crawford $4600
Mateo $2200 (cross your fingers for a steal
Outfield
Judge $5900
Acuna $4300
Trout $6000
Castellanos $4600
Yordan $5500
Canha $2700
Hummel $2900
Trayce Thompson $2400
Ortega $2500 (if leading off)
Reks $2000 (cool name)
Stacks
Top three seem pretty cut-and-dry, not sure about the order that things should go in though:
NYM vs. Corbin
SF vs. Senzatela
NYY vs. Kikuchi
And if you wanna get a little bit lower ownership:
HOU vs. Ryan
ATL vs. Whitlock
Baseball is incredibly random, and there is simply no way to consistently profit in the game of DFS while the house is taking a chunk. Please do not take my big win yesterday as evidence that I have some secret knowledge or anything. Don’t play more money than you can lose and still have a smile on your face.
And even though I won’t be playing for big money tonight, I still hope I find a way to win a quadrillion more dollars - and I hope you do fine too.