DraftKings Picks & Analysis - May 13
I took a nice three days off of DFS outside of just throwing one lineup in for a few bucks to keep that streak going #forthecrowns.
But now it’s Friday, we have 13 games on the board, my day job is dead, and all 50 of my K’s have turned into a mini-van. (I’m just kidding I didn’t really spend that much on the van)
I’m running a private contest on DK tonight for friends & followers, and I’m even giving away $20 of my own money to the winner - provided you have PayPal/Venmo. Enter here.
Here’s a dump of thoughts and picks for tonight.
Pitchers to Play
We have a serious thick line drawn in the sand here between tier one and tier two, both by my own brain’s calculation and by the projection model’s.
Max Scherzer $10.4K vs. SEA (21.6 projected points)
Kevin Gausman $10K vs. TB (20.1 projected points)
and then next is Logan Webb way down at 16.57. So 3.5 points doesn’t seem like a ton, but for projections sake, it is a substantial difference.
I don’t think it’s wise to jam both of those guys in (although it certainly could be optimal, almost anything can be!), so I’d be picking one of them - and I’m not even going to recommend which one - flip a coin for all I care!
As for the cheaper guys, we have this pool
Eduardo Rodriguez $7.7K vs. Baltimore (14.7 projected points)
Jordan Lyles $5.4K vs. Detroit (10.5 projected points)
Aaron Civale $5.9K vs. Minnesota (9.7 projected points)
For there being 26 pitchers to choose from, it’s a pretty narrow pool. I’m going to go with 5-10 lineups in the $4 Four-Seamer, and I think I’ll stick to these names: Scherzer, Gausman, Rodriguez, Fried, Lyles, Civale
Might end up with Cole once or twice if the money situation demands it, he’s right between Fried & Gausman at $9,600.
Pitchers to Target
all data is 2021-2022
Vince Velasquez: 12.5% Brl% to RHB, 8.9% to LHB
Josiah Gray (with LHB): 13.7% Brl% for LHB (Yordan, Tucker)
Marco Gonzales (with RHB): 10.4% Brl%, 18% K% (Alonso, Lindor)
Daulton Jefferies: 9.2% Brl%, 12% K% to RHB (Trout, Rendon)
Yu Darvish: Barrel rates approaching 10% to both sides of plate, LHB low 23% K%
Coors Field
The league average DraftKings points scored per plate appearance for hitters is 1.56. In Coors Field, it is 1.82.
The Royals are the visiting team in Coors tonight. It’s important to note that they don’t exactly have a bunch of dudes that score a lot of points, so the Coors boost isn’t quite as attractive in this spot…
I am certainly fine with playing Merrifield as the lead-off hitter for a cheaper price tag given his crappy performance so far this year. That seems to be pretty sharp, but the upside is always pretty low with him given his inability to hit homers. You’ll need multiple hits and a steal to get a huge number out of him (he doesn’t have a single 20 DraftKings points game this year).
Speaking of big DraftKings points games, here’s a look at the 20+ point performance rate leaders this season. Paid subscribers to this substack have full access to this data, which includes many more columns I’m not displaying here.
Top Expensive Hitters ($4000+)
Aaron Judge $5900
Ketel Marte $4500
Giancarlo Stanton $4800
Byron Buxton $6300
Ronald Acuna Jr. $5800
Mike Trout $6200
Brandon Belt $4500
Freddie Freeman $5000
Jordan Luplow $4100
Top Cheap Hitters (< $4000)
Rafael Ortega $2600
Cooper Hummel $3100
Austin Meadows $3900
Joey Gallo $3300
LaMonte Wade Jr. $3400
Aaron Hicks $3200
Brad Miller $2600
Jose Miranda $2600
J.D. Davis $3000
Max Kepler $3600
Kyle Higashioka $3400
Hitter projecting above 0.20 HR and under 0.80 K’s
Ketel Marte
Anthony Rizzo
Jose Ramirez
Vlad Guerrero
Jose Altuve
Austin Meadows
C.J. Cron
Max Kepler
Manny Machado
Eduardo Escobar
Tighter Positional Pools
SP: Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Lyles, Aaron Civale
Catcher: Kyle Higashioka, Willson Contreras, Sebastian Rivero
First Base: Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Miranda, Christian Walker
Second Base: Ketel Marte, Whit Merrifield, Gleyber Torres, Ozzie Albies,
Shortstop: Trea Turner, Corey Seager, Jorge Mateo, Royce Lewis
Third Base: Bobby Witt, Eduardo Escobar, Brad Miller, Jose Miranda, J.D. Davis
Outfield: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Jordan Luplow, Byron Buxton, Ronald Acuna Jr., Cooper Hummel, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Rafael Ortega, Joey Gallo, Brad Miller, Kole Calhoun