Dynasty League Targets for 2025 and Beyond
A look into the data to find high-upside, buy-low dynasty league targets for fantasy baseball.
A reader requested this, so I figured I would indulge. I’m not a dynasty guy. I’ve only ever played in a dynasty league for three seasons, and I hated it. But I have some ideas about what kind of player makes for a good target. Here are my dynasty buy-low archetypes.
The Bad Rookie Season
I Didn’t Know He Was That Young
The Minor League Pitcher
Let’s hit all three types.
The Bad Rookie Season
We see this all the time. A hyped prospect will come up and suck for three months, and then all of the hype will be gone. It’s a great idea to buy some of these guys who came up this year and then really stunk.
Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians (Age 24)
I loved his minor league profile. He was one of the best in all of the minor leagues at maintaining a high barrel rate with a high contact rate. That has somewhat translated to the Majors this year:
10.8% Brl%
71.1% Cont%
But overall, he’s slashing just .225/.266/.402 and heading towards a pretty unimpressive first go-around in the Majors. It looks like he’ll maintain his rookie eligibility for next year if that makes any difference to you.
His K% is decent at 26.6% K%, and he has a pretty nice 104.7 90th-percentile EV, and there’s no ground ball issue to be found (28% GB%). I like Manzardo a lot for next year.
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers (25)
It has been a disastrous 2024 season for Miller. His command has been completely lost. The good news is that he returned from that early-season injury to at least make regular starts.
I would rather have a pitcher who needs to improve on command rather than on stuff. Miller no doubt has the tools to be an ace (113 Stuff+ even this year while he’s struggling). He’s thrown five different pitches this year. Maybe the key will be for him to drop one of those to focus more on his main stuff - but there are a lot of ways that Miller can get back to business and be an excellent SP beginning in 2025.
Ben Rice, New York Yankees (Age 25)
He came on the scene with a bang but quickly died out and got sent back to the minors. I doubt he will be back this year, but he should have a shot at winning the first base job next year. The good news was that he posted an impressive 15.7% Brl% this year with a decent 26.3% K%. He lifted the ball well (35% GB%) and pulled it a lot as well (47%). That’s a recipe for a bunch of dingers in Yankees Stadium.
If you’re looking for someone who is guaranteed reps next year, this isn’t the guy, but I think the ceiling is still pretty huge with Rice.
Keaton Winn, San Francisco Giants (Age 26)
Injuries have derailed his season, but I liked what he was doing before he went down. The K-BB% was very bad at 11.8%, but his Strike% was above average at 48%, and the SwStr% was impressive at 13.2%. That, plus the 51% GB%, makes me think this is a kid who could be quite good next year.
Henry Davis, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age 24)
This is only interesting because he has that catcher eligibility. Davis did nothing well in the Majors this year:
36.9% K%, .153 xBA, .225 xwOBA, 4.8% Brl%
But he kept on smashing in AAA:
.306/.399/.553, 13 HR, 19.5 PA/HR, 8 SB
He’ll certainly get another shot at being the catcher or DH next year in Pittsburgh next year, but we need a few different things to click for it to work out finally. I’d give Davis one more shot next year.
I Didn’t Know He Was That Young
Juan Soto, New York Yankees (Age 25)
I’m just kidding, but isn’t it crazy how young he still is?
Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels (Age 23)
I love this guy, and I figure to be drafting him a bunch next year. He’s gone .256/.323/.445 this season with 20 homers and 29 steals. I suppose that a near 25-30 season will make the current Neto owner hold on pretty tight to him, but we could be looking at this as the floor for Neto. I think it’s worthwhile to buy a little bit high on him here.
Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels (Age 22)
Schanuel spent almost no time in the minors, so he’s been in the Majors for a year and a half now after still being in college all of 16 months ago.
He is much better for OBP leagues with his 11% BB% and .333 OBP. The downside is the lack of raw power (99.2 90th-percentile EV), but there’s all kinds of time for that to develop at his age. He is already very impressive at with the launch angle profile. His 29% LD% should keep the batting average, and RBI totals up, and he figures to be in the heart of the Angels lineup all year next year due to a lack of other options.
C.J. Abrams, Washington Nationals (Age 23)
I knew he’d go in this category, but I could have sworn he was 24 by now. Nope, still 23! His 2024 season has been somewhat disappointing after he was a top-40 pick in drafts this year.
19 HR, 74 R, 64 RBI, 28 SB, .238 AVG
That is not a top-50 player right there, especially with how plentiful steals are these days. The power has not developed how I was projecting it to, and he’s posted a mediocre 6.8% Brl% this year while maxing out at 110 miles per hour on the exit velocity front.
He’s been a man of streaks:
I still can’t help but think there will be added pop in the future, and I think this guy eventually gets to be a perennial 25-25 player.
At worst, you have a guy that plays every day and steals a bunch of bags.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers (Age 23)
He has still yet to put up great fantasy numbers, but he hits the ball so hard and gets it in the air at such a good rate that I think at some point we’re looking at a 35-homer guy.
He needs to pull it more, so maybe that’s something he can focus on this offseason. Under the hood, he’s had a pretty awesome 2024 season between IL stints with a .358 xwOBA and a .251 xBA. Bonus points in OBP leagues (.349 OBP, 11.1% BB%).
Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees (Age 23)
2023: 601 PA, .209/.283/.383, 21 HR, 24 SB
2024: 624 PA, .252/.297/.379, 11 HR, 26 SB
We have seen a power outage from Volpe this year, but the batting average has come way up, as was predictable, and he’s on his way to another 30-steal season. He is also going to flirt with a 100-run season, so he’s been a very useful (roto) fantasy baseball player in both of his two seasons so far. And that is with a very poor overall .671 OPS. Imagine what he’ll be able to do if he continues to develop, which is likely given his age.
The 650 PA pace he’s established in these two seasons:
78 R, 17 HR, 27 SB, 61 RBI, .231 AVG
We are hoping for much better than that next year, but it also makes him gettable in dynasty leagues. The Volpe owner in your league surely isn’t over the moon with what he’s done these last two years, and I believe his best years are ahead.
30 HR, 50 SB Hitters Since 2023
Lindor
Witt Jr.
Ramirez
Carroll
Rodriguez
Ohtani
Anthony Volpe
Abrams
Thomas
EDLC
Acuna Jr.
Chisholm Jr.
The Minor League Pitcher
I like to focus in on minor leaguers who have reached AA/AAA this year and have very high swinging-strike rates with decent to good ball rates. This fails quite often (Andrew Abbott, Kyle Harrison…), but almost every ace you see in the Majors right now did well in these categories coming up through the minors. Some names to stash:
Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs
Owen Murphy, Atlanta Braves
Quinn Matthews, St. Louis Cardinals
Tink Hence, St. Louis Cardinals
Thomas Harrington, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays
Other Targets
Guys I like that don’t quite fit any of the above categories.
Jhonkensy Noel, Cleveland Guardians (Age 23)
Another Guardian here. Noel’s floor is extremely low. He has struck out a ton this year (31.3%) and has not been an everyday player for Cleveland at any point. He has some huge pop though:
108.9 90th-percentile EV
17.9% Brl%
.552 SLG
.344 xwOBA
He needs to make some contact gains for this to work out, but few hitters have the kind of raw power that Noel possesses.
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (Age 29)
He was really, really good at the beginning of 2023 before the injury. He’s made his way back from that surgery but will finish 2024 in a relief role. He’s showing out in that role with a 30% K% and a 5.7% BB%. I think he will re-enter the rotation next year and pitch extremely well. He has a great combination of stuff (129 Stuff+) and command (103 Location+).
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age 23)
You know I gotta do it! You just don’t find too many guys with this kind of fastball-slider combo. The command went away in the middle of the year, but he’s bookending this season with very good stuff. Sign me up for next year as the Pirates finally unleash both Jones and Skenes for full-season workloads.
Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers (Age 24)
As I said above, I am much more willing to take a gamble on a young pitcher with great stuff but bad command as compared to the inverse. Leiter’s 2024 season in the Majors has been a disaster (10.41 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 16.2% K%, 8.5% BB%), but his minor league numbers are very notable (32% K% going back to 2023).
He has a ton of work to do, and maybe he’ll never have the command - but the ceiling has not moved.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox (Age 24)
Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds (22)
Two more before I wrap up. Both of these guys debuted in 2023 and had some level of success, but they have missed more than half of the 2024 season and have not been good while on the field. I am buying in on them both for 2025, especially Casas. They both have physical tools that few others have, and that is worth buying low on after a tough 2024 campaign.
Thank you.