Examining Strand Rate
A quick look at the strand rate statistic, and the standouts in the stat from 2024
We’re looking quickly at strand rate (otherwise known as left on base percentage, LOB%) today. This is more of a “get to the stat” post, but it will also help us identify some lucky and unlucky pitchers from a year go.
The calculation, per FanGraphs:
LOB% = (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR))
It’s a measure of the rate at which pitchers did not allow men on base to score.
Better pitchers will be better at leaving men on base because they’re better at getting guys out in all situations. The average for starting pitchers is around 74%.
I pulled all 130+ inning season going back to 2015 and found the highest strand rates:
It’s very rare to be above 80%. But you do notice that these pitchers were all very good in the years they posted those numbers. The best way to leave men on base is by striking out the guy who is holding the bat. So you’ll have high strikeout rates turning into higher LOB%, and vice versa.
At the bottom of the list in the last ten seasons:
It is mostly a list of low-strikeout-rate pitchers.
Let’s look briefly at 2024. Here are your highest strand rates from last year, along with the K%, ERA, and SIERA.
Remember the average of 74%. These pitchers were all five points or more above that. They should all expect some level of regression in this, but as we mentioned above, it’s more true with the lower K% guys. The most concerning names here would be
Reynaldo Lopez
Ronel Blanco
Andrew Abbott
Jose Berrios
Tobias Myers
Shota Imanaga
It’s not to say you should avoid them at all costs, and the ADP data is pretty sharp these days and will have baked a lot of this into it, but tread carefully.
On the flip side:
Since bad pitchers have naturally lower LOB%, we don’t see a ton of guys that are being drafted this year on this list. But the standouts who are fantasy-relevant this year who stand to improve in ERA this year because of this:
Brandon Pfaadt
Sonny Gray
Nick Lodolo
Reese Olson
Mitchell Parker
Frankie Montas
Dylan Cease
Jordan Montgomery (super deep league flier?)
I’m particularly interested in investing in Pfaadt, Lodolo, and Olson this year. We can get a more useful list from this by filtering to the guys who can get strikeouts. I’ve put some filters on to look at pitchers with
Below Average LOB%
K% above 24%